burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well the 12z Euro at 5h out to 120 looks totally different from the 12z. Seems to be keying in more on energy coming out of the north west vs. the baja of Cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 this isn't going to make it...gonna dump the energy over old mexico..NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As JR would say, "business is about to pick up" @163 we have some good looking energy in the west. Big storm breaking out over TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 this isn't going to make it...gonna dump the energy over old mexico..NEXT I think we got a good chance with this one Chris. It's suppressed but well hell it beats the look of the GFS that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro as Chris pointed out doesn't cut it. Too weak and suppressed also warmer on this run. Interesting look at 5h and yet another solution. @186 it's close to a triple phaser lol. Weak low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The models are now showing cold in the east with a trough in the west inside day 10. Look at the 6z ENS...well inside 240. As well as the EPS mean. While I agree we have seen some fantasy patterns in the LR that haven't worked out, it still worked out in the sense that it built a ridge and dropped a trough in the east and brought us deep cold, just no snow. Who cares? The pattern was still there...we were in a -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern I believe, sometimes patterns just don't produce. The ensemble mean actually looks good inside Day 10 for snow (obviously we're tracking this 1/24ish system) but I showed 264 just to show how whacky the 12z OP is, dropping a ridge in the east like that when it has no merit. It's basically just another ensemble member you're staring at. I was trying to look at the ensembles on tropical tidbits, but it was erroring out. I hear you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 as Burger said...the first piece out, next fri..our "storm" is waaaay to warm for EVERYONE...yes its about to slowly move out, but there is nada cold anywhere. Yet again....another solution from the euro. This makes 6 different looks from the drunk doc from the last 6 runs. hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 @198 all that energy is phasing with some light snow possibly breaking out over north GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 as Burger said...the first piece out, next fri..our "storm" is waaaay to warm for EVERYONE...yes its about to slowly move out, but there is nada cold anywhere. Yet again....another solution from the euro. This makes 6 different looks from the drunk doc from the last 6 runs. hmmmm seems that is the only stable thing showing on multiple models at this point. At least the day 10+ ensembles continue to advertise a much better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The models might be all over the place with the track, but one thing they seem to be in agreement on (the operational runs) is that there is no cold, or at the very least, marginal cold. We either need a bombing low that produces *gasp* dynamic cooling and also stays south or a stronger high pressure with a tap into a colder source region. Long odds on this one, friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well at least this run of the Euro gets the mountains in the game. For lack of cold air it's almost what you want to see at 5h...a big phasing system that's dragging cold air down into it. This one just phases too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The models might be all over the place with the track, but one thing they seem to be in agreement on (the operational runs) is that there is no cold, or at the very least, marginal cold. We either need a bombing low that produces *gasp* dynamic cooling and also stays south or a stronger high pressure with a tap into a colder source region. Long odds on this one, friends. +EPO on the Op GFS/Euro. That was the one thing that was certain, LOL. Don't worry someone will post an ENS run showing something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The models might be all over the place with the track, but one thing they seem to be in agreement on (the operational runs) is that there is no cold, or at the very least, marginal cold. We either need a bombing low that produces *gasp* dynamic cooling and also stays south or a stronger high pressure with a tap into a colder source region. Long odds on this one, friends. We just need more northern stream interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 +EPO on the Op GFS/Euro. That was the one thing that was certain, LOL. Don't worry someone will post an ENS run showing something different. You always post the eps runs so why would be worried about op runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As much as the Op models have been flipping and flopping on this system, I suggest not even bothering to take them seriously at all for at least several more days. The ensemble means have been more steady, and have at least kept some small-medium level of threat of snow somewhere in the SE. So getting excited then depressed based on any one Op run at this point is a waste of time. Watching with minor interest is what I am doing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Obligatory it's perfectly normal for the Euro/GFS to have a solution 10 days out and loose it on day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As much as the Op models have been flipping and flopping on this system, I suggest not even bothering to take them seriously at all for at least several more days. The ensemble means have been more steady, and have at least kept some small-medium level of threat of snow somewhere in the SE. So getting excited then depressed based on any one Op run at this point is a waste of time. Watching with minor interest is what I am doing right now. As usual good post! Right now it's just fun to look at. Given the long lead time anything is possible really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 12Z Euro has less cold air to the north of the 1/23 low. Hence, it gives a warmer solution out ahead of it. Definitely not what you want to see if you're in a place like ATL, AHN, MCN, BHM, etc. Hopefully, this reverses on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As much as the Op models have been flipping and flopping on this system, I suggest not even bothering to take them seriously at all for at least several more days. The ensemble means have been more steady, and have at least kept some small-medium level of threat of snow somewhere in the SE. So getting excited then depressed based on any one Op run at this point is a waste of time. Watching with minor interest is what I am doing right now. he pops in with greatness..LOL perfect post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As much as the Op models have been flipping and flopping on this system, I suggest not even bothering to take them seriously at all for at least several more days. The ensemble means have been more steady, and have at least kept some small-medium level of threat of snow somewhere in the SE. So getting excited then depressed based on any one Op run at this point is a waste of time. Watching with minor interest is what I am doing right now.100% Agree. Pretty much what I was saying...this needs to be posted like the sign saying "Employees must wash their hands after each visit to the restroom before returning to work" except posted above the SE Forum. No sense in canceling a storm, pattern, SE ridge, hurricane or anything before you see the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 12z ens are backing off of next weekends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 12z ens are backing off of next weekends storm. Which ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 12Z Euro ens wetter than op, but too warm except maybe southern TN to extreme northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 12Z Euro ens wetter than op, but too warm except maybe southern TN to extreme northern NC How warm is too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Meh, euro ensembles are fairly weak for the storm next week. So much for that "euros wheelhouse" nonsense. Remember just a few runs ago this was a monster cutter heading to Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 12Z Euro ens wetter than op, but too warm except maybe southern TN to extreme northern NC Book it!! I wouldn't be surprised if this is an I-40 special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Honestly the biggest thing I wanted to see from the OP and ENS is the time frame start getting closer and closer with this potential threat. Ie, I won't want to see it always in the D8-10 timeframe...so, IMHO its at least a good sign the time is getting shorter and shorter. We are about D6-7 for the most part now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Book it!! I wouldn't be surprised if this is an I-40 specialat this rate we will be lucky to get precip north of i-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This probably belongs in banter but it just shows how boring this winter has been that we're focusing on a storm 7 days out. I don't ever remember any storm being modeled correctly 7 days out with consistency. Just re read the Christmas storm threads from 2010 and it will about make your head hurt. It wasn't until about 3 days out that everything came together. So plenty of time for a big one, a small one and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 If the overall ensembles show a threat through the weekend, a bit warm even I'm good. I'd like to see some consistency though on Monday. If not then I'll start to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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