packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 12z GFS- ridge get's flattened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 All I can say for the 12z is YUCK and NEXT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 How is it physically possible for the upstream kicker to not kick the other one east? The 2nd impulse looks pretty strong. Looks pretty screwy to me............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You are correct sir. 5H looks horrible at 183.. All I can say for the 12z is YUCK and NEXT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am fairly certain this isn't the look we want going into Feb. Although, if you want an early spring the AK low isn't a bad look. +AO, +NAO, +EPO, -PNA...am I missing anything....oh yeah -snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 There is no cold air anywhere. What a turnaround from the exuberance of the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 gfs is well...awful!! Looks wrong to me. how the hell is that gonna sit there, with a kicker on its heels...hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 There is no cold air anywhere. What a turnaround from the exuberance of the other day. The GFS is concerning because it somewhat matches the teleconnections the ENS have been showing after the 22nd. However, it's so drastically different at H5 versus the last 4 runs of the model, it must be considered an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 gfs is well...awful!! Looks wrong to me. how the hell is that gonna sit there, with a kicker on its heels...hmmmm Question of the day. The GFS giveth and GFS taketh away. Will be interesting to see what the Euro and CMC have to say. CMC was slowly trending to the GFS. This was my biggest worry that the southern energy just goes into a pulp and we're left holding the bag with cold and sunny lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 gfs is well...awful!! Looks wrong to me. how the hell is that gonna sit there, with a kicker on its heels...hmmmm It's moving. Both pieces are moving ESE. The Pac Firehose is in full force. There is no cold air. Anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's moving. Both pieces are moving ESE. The Pac Firehose is in full force. There is no cold air. Anywhere. Hopefully this is just a burp but it's again amazing to me how the models can't seem to get a handle on the overall flow....though it could be argued maybe the last two day of runs were the burp if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GFS Horror show in full effect. After next weekend cold is bottled up well to our north with 5 million pieces of energy flying around in the northern stream. Of course that low that eventually gets kicked out is going to take the perfect track with no cold air around lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GFS Horror show in full effect. After next weekend cold is bottled up well to our north with 5 million pieces of energy flying around in the northern stream. Of course that low that eventually gets kicked out is going to take the perfect track with no cold air around lol. Finally a 1040H on the map (northwestern Canada) at 240. Such a delayed response to getting a ridge going out west and then when it does it's off the coast. Totally different from just a couple of days ago when the ridging was extremely well placed ON the west coast before retrograding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Can't see 5h yet but the CMC looks like it's got a better overall look to it @141.....out west though it looks very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GFS is concerning because it somewhat matches the teleconnections the ENS have been showing after the 22nd. However, it's so drastically different at H5 versus the last 4 runs of the model, it must be considered an outlier at this point. This is my hope. Seems last several runs of EURO and GFS have been fairly consistent in the idea of the storm and the ridge placement. Wonder if this will match it's own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 CMC looks interesting at the SFC. Looks like a cutoff low comes down to phase with weak energy? Hard to tell but light snow breaking out over GA/NC and parts of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 CMC gives 3-6 inches for a good chunk of GA/NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 CMC gives 3-6 inches for a good chunk of GA/NC/SC oh really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 CMC gives 3-6 inches for a good chunk of GA/NC/SC 12Z GFS is on it's own right now. All is well. Hopefully King EURO is still on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 12z GGEM seems to be pretty warm at 925 beyond some spots in NC getting colder in time with precip. Not sure the accumulation maps will have much. We're far enough out where it's not ridiculously worrying but colder air needs to start showing next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GFS is concerning because it somewhat matches the teleconnections the ENS have been showing after the 22nd. However, it's so drastically different at H5 versus the last 4 runs of the model, it must be considered an outlier at this point. This. Do not hug individual model runs folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am fairly certain this isn't the look we want going into Feb. Although, if you want an early spring the AK low isn't a bad look. +AO, +NAO, +EPO, -PNA...am I missing anything....oh yeah -snow The 12z Ensemble mean says calm down pack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 All I can say for the 12z is YUCK and NEXT. all i can say is the new gfs in general sucks that yuck. I completely expected a huge flip flop because that is all it does. At this point, I would be shocked if this "new and improved" gfs holds on to a particular solution for more than one or two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 all i can say is the new gfs in general sucks that yuck. I completely expected a huge flip flop because that is all it does. At this point, I would be shocked if this "new and improved" gfs holds on to a particular solution for more than one or two runs. It would be nice to still have the old GFS to compare things to. Personally, I would have opted for a Para release after the Winter. We are sitting here with a model that the masses haven't really utilized and we aren't sure how to pick out the bad from good for it. Do you think it will have a bias of holding energy back in the SW also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well, if we all took the 2m temps verbatim NO model at all shows any snow...I tried to hound that point last night...ya, the temps at 850 looked good, but verbatim, the 2m temps sucked and nobody got squat for snow. Tthere are going to be op runs that show squat...I would like to see more 2m temps and the models ACTUALLY verbatim showing the snow, but I am not worried about that ATTM. WAY to early to do that. IMHO edit to be more politically correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 For those of you saying "yuck"...this is why it's important to wait for the means to come out... This might need to be in the pattern thread, but I wanted people who pbp model runs to notice as well. 12z Operational at 264 12z Ensemble Mean at 264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 ^ Seems like we've seen that top look verify more than the bottom look this winter though, with maybe not as robust of a SW flow. Edit: The Ensembles have frequently shown beautiful patterns after D10 all winter. We've seen this over and over again. I agree with you though...you can't freak out over one model run. And the ensembles do matter -- a lot. But for some reason, this year, we cannot get that look that you show at 264 to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This is my hope. Seems last several runs of EURO and GFS have been fairly consistent in the idea of the storm and the ridge placement. Wonder if this will match it's own ensembles. The 12z Ensemble mean says calm down pack... lol, and that answers my question quite well. Officially I toss you 12Z GFS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 ^ Seems like we've seen that top look verify more than the bottom look this winter though, with maybe not as robust of a SW flow. Edit: The Ensembles have frequently shown beautiful patterns after D10 all winter. We've seen this over and over again. I agree with you though...you can't freak out over one model run. And the ensembles do matter -- a lot. But for some reason, this year, we cannot get that look that you show at 264 to lock in. The models are now showing cold in the east with a trough in the west inside day 10. Look at the 6z ENS...well inside 240. As well as the EPS mean. While I agree we have seen some fantasy patterns in the LR that haven't worked out, it still worked out in the sense that it built a ridge and dropped a trough in the east and brought us deep cold, just no snow. Who cares? The pattern was still there...we were in a -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern I believe, sometimes patterns just don't produce. The ensemble mean actually looks good inside Day 10 for snow (obviously we're tracking this 1/24ish system) but I showed 264 just to show how whacky the 12z OP is, dropping a ridge in the east like that when it has no merit. It's basically just another ensemble member you're staring at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 On the models that do have a good hit for the southeast, I am concerned about a lack of a strong high pressure. That being said, I remember two recent events in the SE that were without a large, dominant high pressure. One produced big time, and to counter, one didn't produce much at all except for a select few. My first example is the 2/13/10 southern slider... What a beauty. Still my favorite storm that I've experienced that I've been alive for. But I digress. Here is an archive image of the surface map for that storm (sorry for the satellite view, couldn't find an image without it. Check out the high pressure. It's simply a diffuse airmass of ~1022 in the center of the country. Even with that, this was one of the most remarkable southern snowstorms in decades for some. I wasn't following the actual synoptics of storms at this time... Only NWS forecast, so I can't recall the factors that made it so remarkable other than that is was a crazy winter with a crazy el nino. Example 2: 2/16/13. This winter, we were kind of grasping for straws, and although light, this event showed promise for at least light accumulations. This storm had the same sort of issue that we're seeing with our current storm... Warm 2M temps. This particular system featured a very sharp 500 trough, which was the main mechanism for precip. With that trough came very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere, but still warm temperatures in the lower atmosphere. This lead to problems. I still remember a notable board member (either wildremann or eyewall) talking about how they had seen inches of snow fall that day, and had it all melt because of warm 2M temps. Here's the surface map for that storm: As you can see, there wasn't really a dominant, strong HP. There was a decent 1032 high in TX, but that was it. Finally, here's today's 6z GFS. I know the storm was unremarkable on the 6z, however I'm just here for the HP. This is almost like a hybrid of my two examples: Pretty diffuse HP over the Ohio Valley into TX of 1022, with a slightly stronger area of HP in TX. Anyway, I'm just try to show that while a strong high obviously helps immensely, it doesn't necessarily mean no snow. Similarly, just because we have good upper atmosphere support doesn't mean it can overcome surface temps in some cases. We will see how this plays out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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