rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The 0z gfs doesn't look bad...Taking grit's analogy above (thanks by the way) it looks as if the northern stream energy did take the preferred path so now lets see where it leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 3:24 AM, nomanslandva said: Is the hires NAM a different model (different logic) or is it just higher definition on the output? Simulated reflectivity seems show decent returns tomorrow in NW NC and SWVA but that seems to not agree with the placement on the regular NAM. Just a higher resolution. Regular NAM is on a 12km domain while hi-res is 4km. I'm not too optimistic about seeing much snow tomorrow; everything below 900mb is torching. It's possible we get heavy enough rates to cool the column enough to get some snow, but it appears our best chance of seeing snow is on the back end when things are winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:16 AM, rduwx said: The 0z gfs doesn't look bad...Taking grit's analogy above (thanks by the way) it looks as if the northern stream energy did take the preferred path so now lets see where it leads. Just missed, but reminds me of last weeks rainy coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 At 126, there is alot more moisture , farther north and east into TX and southern plains, there is a 1034 high in SE Canada, if the moisture comes east, don't think the cold will be there this run, but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:19 AM, packbacker said: Just missed, but reminds me of last weeks rainy coastal. Yep but good trends. I really miss the cold highs that where being modeled 3 days ago. Temps are going to be so boderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Icy? Sleety? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:27 AM, Queencitywx said: Icy? Sleety?Meh, out to 144, there's a 1020 high over DC, a low over IL, strung out moisture from TX-VA. Moisture not an issue, it's cold so far! Maybe the low over IL is the northern piece? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:22 AM, rduwx said: Yep but good trends. I really miss the cold highs that where being modeled 3 days ago. Temps are going to be so boderline. Webber brought it up...-EPO fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:27 AM, Queencitywx said: Icy? Sleety? The light precip that makes it to mine and your backyard looks like a cold rain to me. Without looking at any soundings the 850's and 2m's look a little too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The model war/worries is at an epic pitch in the nyc thread. it's almost worth staying up and watching pbp at 1.00 when the euro rolls out. Sorry this is off topic, but as much as we watch models, this is a heavy weight champion cage fight , even though it's over a micro back yard climate. This back yard has 7 million peeps in it. Entertainment value is a 10 I promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:42 AM, NCSNOW said: The model war/worries is at an epic pitch in the nyc thread. it's almost worth staying up and watching pbp at 1.00 when the euro rolls out. Sorry this is off topic, but as much as we watch models, this is a heavy weight champion cage fight , even though it's over a micro back yard climate. This back yard has 7 million peeps in it. Entertainment value is a 10 I promise. Yeah, the general consensus from tonight's 00z model runs for NYC is about 8-12" while the 12z Euro showed 24-36"... I think the Euro will probably fold, but we'll see. The NWS also threw out 24-36" maps earlier, which aren't looking too good at the moment for the NYC metro. Whatever the case, the SNE is going to get pummeled. Someone might get 40" and widespread 18"+ looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, there is some low off the SC coast, but after that , looks like a glorified cold front passage, there is a small bit of ice/snow, for the usual suspects, GSO, Winston, Roxboro. The only improvement was moisture, those blockbuster 1020 highs, not really much help! About 4 or 5 clippers hit the NE again, in case somebody up there only gets a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:34 AM, packbacker said: Webber brought it up...-EPO fail. Looks like it builds later in the day 8-11 period but the cold is still just Ne of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well, the one model that was on the Euro's side at 12z has folded. The UKMET only has 8-10" for NYC now. Crazy cutoff, though. I don't have exact totals, but it wouldn't surprise me if Queens gets 18" while Newark gets 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:51 AM, superjames1992 said: Well, the one model that was on the Euro's side at 12z has folded. The UKMET only has 8-10" for NYC now. Crazy cutoff, though. I don't have exact totals, but it wouldn't surprise me if Queens gets 18" while Newark gets 6". That's like the same distance as High Point and Greensboro ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:54 AM, snowstorm2011 said: That's like the same distance as High Point and Greensboro ! I've seen it like that here before, too. Downtown High Point gets 16". Greensboro gets 6". That's like 10 miles or so. I would have been on the wrong side of that line, too. Thank God I didn't live here then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 CMC is back to the cutter idea...I don't have 5h maps yet so not sure of details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There have been more runs that show a cutter than any other solution.. if its trends we are looking for then id say thats a trend.. all models have trended warmer with weaker high pressures to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well you have to putty the fools who went to bed with a forecast of 24-30 that will wake up on game day and hear 8-10. Heck gfs only spits ot about .65 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:56 AM, superjames1992 said: I've seen it like that here before, too. Downtown High Point gets 16". Greensboro gets 6". That's like 10 miles or so. I would have been on the wrong side of that line, too. Thank God I didn't live here then. I was right under the 20. Best storm for me since I moved to this area. Several hours of lightning and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:58 AM, rduwx said: CMC is back to the cutter idea...I don't have 5h maps yet so not sure of details. Looks like a nice ice storm, though. Nice CAD. Verbatim. Easily warning criteria before it changes over to rain. Doubt it would happen as shown, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 5:01 AM, jburns said: I was right under the 20. Best storm for me since I moved to this area. Several hours of lightning and thunder. I was between the 7 and the 6 in Greensboro at the time and looking for a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well atleast the crazy uncle is in the same ballpark as he was at 12z, east of the mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Loved that storm, like burns actually lucked up on one. It usually works the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On the CMC , the clipper bomb looks like "only" a foot or less for NYC , somewhere around Boston looks like 30+, easy! That moisture fetch is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Better go buy some bread, milk, and a generator, guys! ...Because ice storms from cutters ALWAYS work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 4:03 AM, packbacker said: Yep, I bet if SJ or Jon post the Euro/EPS EPO telecon model output if will show it continually try and take it negative and fail. I just checked this months EPO data and its been positive for 10 days or so now. And all modeling is backing off on taking it strongly negative. That's why I don't think it's going to snow, countless model runs spitting out nice looking patterns that don't verify. The 7-8 day EPS look is hanging on by a thread. If this fails and the pattern reshuffles it might be after Feb 10th before it tries for another favorable look. #PDOFail In saying this, all of the main anomalous height players are on the field & I give the 6-10 day synoptic pattern a solid A/A- for a Miller B/overrunning precursor. The devil is in the details of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That is some nasty ice on the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The angry Doctor has initialized. Let's see if he folds tonight in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The 00z Euro is a good 50 miles east of its 12z run. It's still a great hit for NYC. 20"+. Mets are going to have a tough job up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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