Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 5:33 PM, HKY_WX said: I like the look of the gfs a lot. The key is just getting this s/w to eject out on time, not allowing the hp to build in too early, as it will squash the storm like the euro is showing. It's hopefully a bit of the euro model bias holding the s/w back in the southwest too long in the LR. If you inspect the GFS around hr 180, the CAD front is already starting to infiltrate. It truncates around 192 and the model loses this feature. If you look at the layered cold from NC up to SE Canada, along with the building HP, this screams ice/snow threat. Side note, the system coming in monday is really interesting too and has trended more closed off/negative. I would keep an eye on that. Now that the parallel GFS has taken over, I didn't think it truncated at 192 hrs but more out to 240 or something? BTW, agree that the surface is a little off given the amt of high pressure in place. That look at 500mb is a class overrunning setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 5:44 PM, Wow said: Now that the parallel GFS has taken over, I didn't think it truncated at 192 hrs but more out to 240 or something? BTW, agree that the surface is a little off given the amt of high pressure in place. That look at 500mb is a class overrunning setup. hmm I guess accuweather hasn't updated their model yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yeah, the new GFS goes out to D10 (hr 240) before truncation. On 1/24/2015 at 5:24 PM, Queencitywx said: CMC is way inland, like over the mountains of kentucky inland. Perfect Carolinas storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 5:55 PM, superjames1992 said: Yeah, the new GFS goes out to D10 (hr 240) before truncation. Perfect Carolinas storm track. The CMC ENS look essentially like the GEFS, although precip max is up 85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If the 3rd storm doesn't work out, we have another miller A rainstorm to look forward to on the 6th! We will have to sacrifice the "Superbowl" Storm , to set the table for the 6th! Fab Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Some mammoth 1060+ highs the GEFS members are throwing out. This looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 While we try and manufacture a storm in fantasy land range, the new models give the NE a K-U blockbuster. Doh! The new ECMWF is rolling in, from early returns it will probably not be much like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:29 PM, Cheeznado said: While we try and manufacture a storm in fantasy land range, the new models give the NE a K-U blackbuster. Doh! The new ECMWF is rolling in, from early returns it will probably not be much like the GFS Nope! Wow that's quite a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That snowpack has to help us up north, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 5:33 PM, HKY_WX said: I like the look of the gfs a lot. The key is just getting this s/w to eject out on time, not allowing the hp to build in too early, as it will squash the storm like the euro is showing. It's hopefully a bit of the euro model bias holding the s/w back in the southwest too long in the LR. If you inspect the GFS around hr 180, the CAD front is already starting to infiltrate. It truncates around 192 and the model loses this feature. If you look at the layered cold from NC up to SE Canada, along with the building HP, this screams ice/snow threat. Side note, the system coming in monday is really interesting too and has trended more closed off/negative. I would keep an eye on that. I'm glad to see someone paying attention to that system seem like it's getting stronger every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ECMWF going to continue to be Dr No, will still leave the SW low trapped and just be NW flow here. Quite a battle of the models we have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:29 PM, Cheeznado said: While we try and manufacture a storm in fantasy land range, the new models give the NE a K-U blockbuster. Doh The new ECMWF is rolling in, from early returns it will probably not be much like the GFS Am I crazy or should the peeps in NC not be pumped about the moisture that wraps around and gets thrown back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:36 PM, Cheeznado said: ECMWF going to continue to be Dr No, will still leave the SW low trapped and just be NW flow here. Quite a battle of the models we have here. Which is a Euro bias, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:36 PM, HWY316wx said: Am I crazy or should the peeps in NC not be pumped about the moisture that wraps around and gets thrown back? Mountains yes, but not those to the east except for far northeast NC. I know the western piedmont rarely gets wraparound due to downsloping. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 One clipper after another on the 12z euro. Nothing coming across the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro is another arctic blast if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro is a great run for the mountains. I know that flow does not help anyone outside the mountains but man that would be snow almost everyday here in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So we have suppressed NW flow cold, or an Ohio valley crush job!? Take the avg, and we all score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wow at the trough on the euro. Very impressive and looks reasonably stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So the Euro is showing another /dry/ arctic blast while the GFS is showing a big cold rainstorm and pretty much average temps. Love how they're so different from eachother. It's still 7+ days out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:49 PM, burgertime said: Euro is another arctic blast if nothing else. Arctic Attack II if the Euro is correct...given how the snowpack will be drastically larger to our north and west, this could be a doozy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:02 PM, Marion_NC_WX said: Arctic Attack II if the Euro is correct...given how the snowpack will be drastically larger to our north and west, this could be a doozy!very good point about snowpack up north Marion. That would be the ticket to a sustained blast I would think also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:57 PM, mackerel_sky said: So we have suppressed NW flow cold, or an Ohio valley crush job!? Take the avg, and we all score! That's pretty much it Mack. I found it interesting that the Canadian was digging the northern stream so far west while the Euro was well east with it. GFS was in between the two, but closer to the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Navgem looks pretty good at 180. It's in the CMC / GFS camp of bringing the storm out of the southwest based on the h5 look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:04 PM, Met1985 said: very good point about snowpack up north Marion. That would be the ticket to a sustained blast I would think also. Forgive me but why is that good for anyone outside the mountains for wintry precip?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles are starting to run now (on wxbell)... Hopefully they'll agree on the Euro OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:48 PM, griteater said: Navgem looks pretty good at 180. It's in the CMC / GFS camp of bringing the storm out of the southwest based on the h5 lookthe navgem destroyed every other model with the past storm that came through. Ride it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:51 PM, Heitmeyer said: Euro ensembles are starting to run now (on wxbell)... Hopefully they'll agree on the Euro OP.cold and mostly dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:51 PM, MichaelJ said: Forgive me but why is that good for anyone outside the mountains for wintry precip??it allows the cold air to travel better across the snowpack up north. It would help keep moderation of air masses from the north to a minimum and it would help the cad areas a lot also to help keep the cold air cold to the north instead of moderating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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