jburns Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 wondered same thing for western piedmont area.. Shelby area? Mom was right. To wrongs don't make a right. Simple to look up. IMBY posts are discouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 RAH PHASING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOWS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS IN REGARDS TO FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH A POTENTIAL SWEET SPOT FOR THE MOST ACCUMULATION OF ICE OCCURRING ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND ROCKY MOUNT. WITH WEAK RAIN RATES AND LIMITED TIME BELOW FREEZING...ICE ACCRUAL VALUES SHOULD BE AT MOST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH CLOSER TO 0.05 INCHES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SWEET SPOT.HOW CONFIDENT IS THE FORECAST? WITH MODELS TRENDING COLDER...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL GET TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...THE PRECIPIATION FORECAST REMAINS THE LARGEST VARIABLE. A SHIFT IN TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW COULD RESULT IN A CHANGE IN QPF VALUES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER AS WELL AS THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPIATION. ALSO A CHANGE IN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPIATION COMBINE WOULD ALSO AFFECT ICE ACCRUAL VALUES AND ULTIMATELY IMPACTS. FURTHER DETAILS WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN TO PICK UP THE SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1 min · Freezing rain and icy roads are possible Tuesday night and early Wednesday across portions of central NC. Based on today's data, the I-95 corridor may have the best chance to see travel impacts Wednesday morning. Be sure to check back for updates, as precip amounts are uncertain this forecast may still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Surface dew points at hour 30: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=18&fhour=30¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Gonna be hard to get temps well below freezing with dp's between 35-40 , in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Gonna be hard to get temps well below freezing with dp's between 35-40 , in my area Mac - NAM and GFS have your surface temperatures below freezing overnight Tues into Wed morning. GFS has you with temp of 29, dewpoint of 27 Wed morning at 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 12s13 seconds ago 18z NAM-12km was pretty nasty with 0.5 inches liquid QPF NE piedmont/coastal plains all freezing rain. NAM-4km though curiously was lighter. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 37s37 seconds ago NAM-4km with only 0.1 to 0.25 in same areas. NAM-12 likely overdone, trend worth monitoring comparing NAM-12 vs NAM-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Temp portion of this setup is fairly impressive for Raleigh > Greensboro area. GFS has Raleigh temp at 26 with dewpoint of 20 Wed morning at 7AM. NAM is 28 / 24 at same time. Just have to see how the precip shakes out. Could be the NAM over doing the precip as usual and it ends up being very light...or maybe the other models will tick up over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Temp portion of this setup is fairly impressive for Raleigh > Greensboro area. GFS has Raleigh temp at 26 with dewpoint of 20 Wed morning at 7AM. NAM is 28 / 24 at same time. Just have to see how the precip shakes out. Could be the NAM over doing the precip as usual and it ends up being very light...or maybe the other models will tick up over the next 24 hours. The Euro already went up some last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 RGEM shifted west, not enough for the big NAM totals but RDU now get's about 3mm (.12") where as before it was about 1.5mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Temp portion of this setup is fairly impressive for Raleigh > Greensboro area. GFS has Raleigh temp at 26 with dewpoint of 20 Wed morning at 7AM. NAM is 28 / 24 at same time. Just have to see how the precip shakes out. Could be the NAM over doing the precip as usual and it ends up being very light...or maybe the other models will tick up over the next 24 hours. We have to assume that the NAM-12km is on crack at this point. The NAM-4 is probably more realistic. Still if temps get to 26, and we get .1 of freezing rain that will cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 RGEM shifted west, not enough for the big NAM totals but RDU now get's about 3mm (.12") where as before it was about 1.5mm. One more shift west for RGEM and FAY and I-95 would be looking at .33 to .4 inches. An unpleasant scenario down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So, the sounding at RDU looks almost like sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We have to assume that the NAM-12km is on crack at this point. The NAM-4 is probably more realistic. Still if temps get to 26, and we get .1 of freezing rain that will cause problems. Yeah, NAM is on it's own but here is what it shows for RDU, mainly sleet with some frzn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yeah, NAM is on it's own but here is what it shows for RDU, mainly sleet with some frzn. Just made the same post. The sounding that I saw is definitely IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 One more shift west for RGEM and FAY and I-95 would be looking at .33 to .4 inches. An unpleasant scenario down here... Your already there with the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Para shifted west a hair, probably .15" of precip for RDU, sharp cut off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS is still pretty dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Para shifted west a hair, probably .15" of precip for RDU, sharp cut off to the west. Old GFS still looks similar to 12z (maybe .05 for RDU). Less precip in the SE. GO Para!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Your already there with the RGEM Precip-wise ... but I think that includes pre-freezing temps. I'll wait another 6 before buying 100-pound bags of kitty litter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Your already there with the RGEM Good thing our temps in Jville appear be marginal and probably above freezing otherwise that would be pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Good thing our temps in Jville appear be marginal and probably above freezing otherwise that would be pretty bad. Yeah we are pretty much on the fence here as well, maybe some elevated surfaces but without sleet I doubt roads are a issue at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 well here is the 15 UTC SREF Probability of freeing rain at 9 UTC Wed Here is the 12 hours QPF ending at 9UTC wed. 1/4 of a inch is freezing rain advisory criteria. Id give a 30% of coastal plain counties getting a advisory. Probability of warning criteria is around 10%. Models keep featuring a piece of vorticity that shoots up the Piedmont, someone should cash in from that if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 18Z NAM Meteogram says .47" zr for RAH ~ coolwx.com says .469" zr .......I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On the image above where it has the .25 mark it is pretty close to Clinton where a few days ago there was that tragic wreck due to freezing rain; I hope people take the threat seriously because even with trace amounts we all saw what can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Ch 3 mentioned mainly sleet showers starting tomorrow afternoon?? I didn't even realize we were talking about any sleet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I've never been too big on the NAM since its upgrade a few years ago, but since we're model hugging and this may be all we have to track for a while lol, here's a run down of the 18z bufkit sounding for RDU. The winds shift NE early Tuesday morning and temps fall slowly through the day to below freezing by 9pm. Most of the day Tuesday will be drizzle w/ low clouds. The one thing we have going for us is the column remains pretty much saturated from 750mb down the entire time, which means the only time lost to evap cooling will be saturating the area from 750mb up to 600mb. The depth of the warm layer is pretty deep aloft from 750mb down to 950mb ( around 5k ft deep). The layer of cold air at the sfc is probably deep enough to produce ip for a few hours early morning Wednesday (when the screenshot is taken). That said the majority would be zr. The lowest temp is b/n -2c to -3c near the sfc early Wednesday. Looks like over .5 total is zr/ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 That looks more like an IP sounding to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The 00z NAM holds serve. Might be wetter out this way, in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM hammers NC it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hammers? as in relative to winter 2014/2015? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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