Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Here is WxSouth's comment on facebook: This looks very very much like a dangerous event to me, especially in NC southern third of VA. Because of the fact there is plenty of low level cold coming in , and a lot of moisture that will saturate the air. The models simply don't have much QPF, but they all have drizzle. And when you get drizzle that is widespread as this, and have temps 27, 28, 29, 30..then that is big trouble. I can see this being a nightmare on roads between the Triad, Triangle to Rocky Mount to Richmond regions by Wednesday morning...just from the constant fine mist. That creates black ice easily in those temps. I think most forecasters are simply using the QPF charts--big mistake in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Here is WxSouth's comment on facebook: This looks very very much like a dangerous event to me, especially in NC southern third of VA. Because of the fact there is plenty of low level cold coming in , and a lot of moisture that will saturate the air. The models simply don't have much QPF, but they all have drizzle. And when you get drizzle that is widespread as this, and have temps 27, 28, 29, 30..then that is big trouble. I can see this being a nightmare on roads between the Triad, Triangle to Rocky Mount to Richmond regions by Wednesday morning...just from the constant fine mist. That creates black ice easily in those temps. I think most forecasters are simply using the QPF charts--big mistake in my opinion. Looks like I'm taking Wednesday off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Maybe you won't get below freezing, but I would not put 20 to 1 odds on it just yet. There is too much that can still happen. You could just as well be under clear skies and 25 degrees come Thursday morning.He said " well below freezing to upper SC, with drizzle floating around" we may hit 25 if it was clear, but with drizzle and the air mass not being super cold, I bet we don't see well below 32 here, with drizzle, I bet we don't see 32. Just my thoughts , we will see what happens? I hope, just for the sake of not being rain, that he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Looks like I'm taking Wednesday off!Just do like Brick and take everyday off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Here is WxSouth's comment on facebook: This looks very very much like a dangerous event to me, especially in NC southern third of VA. Because of the fact there is plenty of low level cold coming in , and a lot of moisture that will saturate the air. The models simply don't have much QPF, but they all have drizzle. And when you get drizzle that is widespread as this, and have temps 27, 28, 29, 30..then that is big trouble. I can see this being a nightmare on roads between the Triad, Triangle to Rocky Mount to Richmond regions by Wednesday morning...just from the constant fine mist. That creates black ice easily in those temps. I think most forecasters are simply using the QPF charts--big mistake in my opinion. Drizzle doesn't magically create more liquid equivalent. If the model QPF is something like 0.05", then that's no more than 0.05" accretion on surfaces, even if it's a perfect accretion (unlikely with temps around 30). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 He says " well below freezing temps down to upper SC" I got 20:1 odds we don't get below 35 Wednesday night. Taking bets now Robert is an excellent forecaster and I enjoy reading his posts. I am glad to see he is still confident on us seeing some snow for this winter! For this particular event, just knowing the upstate as well as I do, I tend to agree with you Mack. "Upper SC" I think is meant to be the north central part that always seems to do the best (either because or leeward cyclo-ogenesis, or because of being a preferred CAD region). This would be that Gaffney to Rock Hill to Union to Lancaster region, maybe down to eastern Spartanburg (in this case beacuse of the CAD) , but not to NW SC. Unless the CAD ends up being significantly stronger than progged (always a possibility), we will see our usual 34-40 degree rain with this one. I've seen it countless times in this area, even a number of times when we were expected to be impacted significantly, even this far West. There's always that chance that we'll see some ice, but I would have to bet no just based on repeated past experience. Someone will see pretty good ice, most likely from the triad up, but it could well come down as far south as upper SC, and as far west as Hky, Sptbg line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 the 21Z SREF QPF is pretty much 0 for RDU during that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Drizzle doesn't magically create more liquid equivalent. If the model QPF is something like 0.05", then that's no more than 0.05" accretion on surfaces, even if it's a perfect accretion (unlikely with temps around 30). I agree to a point(.05 is .05); but the drizzle would have a higher chance to freeze to surfaces before running off(..with temps of 30). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Robert is an excellent forecaster and I enjoy reading his posts. I am glad to see he is still confident on us seeing some snow for this winter! For this particular event, just knowing the upstate as well as I do, I tend to agree with you Mack. "Upper SC" I think is meant to be the north central part that always seems to do the best (either because or leeward cyclo-ogenesis, or because of being a preferred CAD region). This would be that Gaffney to Rock Hill to Union to Lancaster region, maybe down to eastern Spartanburg (in this case beacuse of the CAD) , but not to NW SC. Unless the CAD ends up being significantly stronger than progged (always a possibility), we will see our usual 34-40 degree rain with this one. I've seen it countless times in this area, even a number of times when we were expected to be impacted significantly, even this far West. There's always that chance that we'll see some ice, but I would have to bet no just based on repeated past experience. Someone will see pretty good ice, most likely from the triad up, but it could well come down as far south as upper SC, and as far west as Hky, Sptbg line.Yeah, that's the problem, if they are saying temps will be 27,28,29 in the triad and S VA, it obviously not going to be that cold here, that's not the way wedges work. 34-35 here, based solely on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 it's pretty sad when we're arguing over drizzle... lol. i think this is a wx board first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I agree to a point(.05 is .05); but the drizzle would have a higher chance to freeze to surfaces before running off(..with temps of 30).That's why I used the phrase "perfect accretion". We get much closer to that with drizzle and cold temps, sure, but even so, if there's only a little QPF, we'll only get, at most, a small amount of accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 it's pretty sad when we're arguing over drizzle... lol. i think this is a wx board first.Maybe next we'll get excited about freezing fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's the NAM, but it is a good bit wetter , from Raleigh eastward , with some ice! Nothing from there south and or west , but it's not picking up the zdrz, all over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The NAM is wetter only in that it went from basically nothing to barely something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Maybe next we'll get excited about freezing fog.No, if we don't score freezing drizzle this week, it will be all liquid precip the rest of the winter, long run looks horrendous ! I'll let you know about the 384 GFS , -NAO works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The NAM is wetter only in that it went from basically nothing to barely something. Trends trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Nam actually has sn I w as ptype in foothills western piedmont, along with some sleet near bofder. I'm only out to hr 63and looking at ptypes, so I'm sure it's light, but it has frzng rn and some sleet for 13 hours over triad. Probably drizzle, but itsp I cling it up cause of higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Always cut NAM totals by 1/4. Good rule of thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Sorry for the typos. Meant to say it's probably picking up on the drizzle with its higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's the NAM, but it is a good bit wetter , from Raleigh eastward , with some ice! Nothing from there south and or west , but it's not picking up the zdrz, all over NC. The NAM has 0.1"+ all the way back to the western Piedmont of NC. The NAM didn't give any of us anything last run, so I guess that's an infinite improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 .08 and 30 degrees would likely close schools on Wednesday. With some of the tragedies in the past year or so, they won't take a chance. tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 00z GFS has a dot of ice right over CLT at 6z tomorrow , lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 00z GFS has a dot of ice right over CLT at 6z tomorrow , lol Start the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS has .1" getting to Cold Rains backyard, everywhere else is less than a .1. This is sad we are tracking a .1" frzn event LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The 00z GFS is marginally better, and I mean marginally. It sucks. Maybe it'll set up a mega-phase with storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Para says there will be a full moon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS has .1" getting to Cold Rains backyard, everywhere else is less than a .1. This is sad we are tracking a .1" frzn event LOL Sweet. This is shaping up to be the saddest winter ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Sick wedge on the Para... Who needs precip, anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Sick wedge on the Para... Who needs precip, anyways?Probably the flu! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Sweet. This is shaping up to be the saddest winter ever! We suck...so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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