superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I don't have access to the Euro but has it always showed little moisture, or is it trending that way? Seems the NAM, GFS, and others are the ones holding onto a little more moisture and ice The Euro has always been relatively dry with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 +1... I can't even believe some are trying to argue that this is a non-event... All it takes is a light glaze of ice (1/8 of inch if that in some cases) on the roads turn them into an ice skating rink and thus become impassible. Once totals reach .25 of an inch, then we start to run the possibility of experiencing widespread power outages. There are relatively few instances where I'll admit receiving ice is a "non-event". Totals of .1-.2 of an inch are pushing it as it is, any more than that and things will start becoming serious in a hurry, especially considering how cold it has been of late (& is projected to be)...If it's cold enough to actually be anything other than wet on the roads. That's usually the trick around here. I know people are excited about the GFS temps, but the models are sometimes too quick with the cold air. If the precip holds off even a little bit and starts to show up after daybreak, there won't be much actual ice on the roads themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Even at 28, ice will be mostly on bridge, overpasses, concrete (vs. asphalt), and shaded areas. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Right now I would say the NAM would be the safest medium between the models. A light glaze of .1 to .15 glaze at RDU with maybe close to .25 somewhere to the south and east of RDU. But I'm a realist and realize that we could get nothing; or could get just a little bit more to meet winter storm criteria(for somebody). If anything this is something to track in a winter that has had nothing to track. I could imagine even if the potential exists for .1-.15 inch of ice, the NWS is more than likely not going to take any chances and go w/ at least a winter weather advisory... Predicting precip this far in advance down the the tenth of an inch is pointless even at this range. The overall idea/average I'm getting is to expect about 1/8th of an inch of glaze in the Triangle, that's more than enough to cause major travel problems, and is certainly not what I would quantify as a "non-event".. If it's cold enough to actually be anything other than wet on the roads. That's usually the trick around here. I know people are excited about the GFS temps, but the models are sometimes too quick with the cold air. If the precip holds off even a little bit and starts to show up after daybreak, there won't be much actual ice on the roads themselves. The models also often have a tendency to be too conservative w/ CAD, especially in the face of a fresh snowpack that will be getting laid down across the I-70 corridor in IN, OH, & PA, etc... Sleet is also a real possibility here, particularly the further north & west you go in the Piedmont. Still think anyone along a line from Roxboro to Greensboro & areas northwestward stand the best chance of seeing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It's a rarity that roads freeze over in the Upstate, but that becomes the problem because while the roads are fine the bridges and overpasses become treacherous and people drive right over them at normal speeds. Chaos then ensues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I could imagine even if the potential exists for .1-.15 inch of ice, the NWS is more than likely not going to take any chances and go w/ at least a winter weather advisory... RAH usually throws out WWAs for a glaze, so definitely. They threw out an Ice Storm Warning here for the ice event on December 8th, 2013, which was a bad call, IMO. Just barely a glaze with temps of 32. Even before it busted, they were only forecasting 0.1-0.2" of ZR, which wasn't even warning criteria in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not if it's a trace. It would do nothing. This is why just a trace of freezing rain can cause havoc. This happened just last week in Eastern Carolina http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20150109/ARTICLES/150109739 http://www.wral.com/icy-roads-delay-some-sampson-county-schools/14341257/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 EPS mean is wetter for this, .2-.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 RAH not a big fan in the latest discussion. Basically saying .10" at most in areas where precip is heaviest... if it aligns with cold. Saying it may not be cold enough for fzra.. CONFIDENCE INSURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN ISLOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. FINALLY...CONFIDENCE INPRECIPIATION DISTRIBUTION IS ALSO LOW/MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. MODELSCURRENTLY INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIERBUT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WHERE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST...IS LESSCERTAIN. THEREFORE WILL CARRY CHANCES FOR RAIN OR FREEZING RAINTHROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED TOREMAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE MOST WITH MOST AREAS ONLYSEEING A GLAZING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BUT AREAS UNDER THEHEAVIEST PRECIPITATION COULD SEE CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OFICE...IF COLD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER PRECIPIATION ALIGN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 18z NAM brings forth both good and bad news. The good news is that it's significantly colder and actually cold enough for snow for much of NC. The bad news is that it's pretty much bone dry. In other news, it's the NAM past day 2, so yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 No problem. Take the Nam temp profile and Canadian qpf and we'll all be at our seasonal avg in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 finally found the right thread lol The event for midweek looks interesting. gradients have been increasing with newer gfs runs. gfs have seem to come to a consensus on location of the highs and path. I dont have time to make a ctl file, so i eyeballed pressure gradients. the pressure gradients in CAD areas seem to be increasing and it close to the 2002 ice storm. upper level support is lacking however. with the right exit of the jet remaining over the gulf, any longhorn low that forms will be weak. upper level support is neutral for NC during the middle of the system. All in all, i think models are underestimating the CAD. I do think precip will be very light due to little upper level support and a weak low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well the 18z GFS came in a lot dryer. NE SC and SE NC does well but temps would be warmer. Still time for this to trend back wetter but definitely a bummer seeing the latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Parts of NC should see freezing rain... The amounts are light so the event should be a minimal problem but still a problem for a lot of folks. Jmo on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 18z says congrats Fayetteville and Wilmington, nothing N of any of that, game , set ,match! I'm sure the Euro or Nam will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 18z says congrats Fayetteville and Wilmington, nothing N of any of that, game , set ,match! I'm sure the Euro or Nam will save us! The 18z GFS actually joined them from their 12z runs. I suppose the Canadian is on it's own. Still think we could get something but we'll need the models to start trending wetter by late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Ok no more posting in this thread unless you have something nice to say. Good examples would be: A. The GFS came in wetter, thus more ice B. The new Euro is even colder, this more ice. C. QPF is higher and mid levels are colder, thus more sleet and/or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 This was never gonna be a major ice storm, only minor accumulations at best. I find it hard to believe that there would not be ANY precip in a CAD situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 This was never gonna be a major ice storm, only minor accumulations at best. I find it hard to believe that there would not be ANY precip in a CAD situation.We had exactly that on Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We had exactly that on Saturday... Yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Ok no more posting in this thread unless you have something nice to say. Good examples would be: A. The GFS came in wetter, thus more ice B. The new Euro is even colder, this more ice. C. QPF is higher and mid levels are colder, thus more sleet and/or snow. #suggestionfail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 #suggestionfail People need to read Roberts post, it's pretty good. It explains alot. https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/982453135118075/?type=1&permPage=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 People need to read Roberts post, it's pretty good. It explains alot. https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/982453135118075/?type=1&permPage=1 Let's just go ahead and copy the text in here. He is standing by his freezing rain forecast for the CAD regions even though the models are not showing much QPF response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I agree. The drizzle will still be enough to cause problems. I think we get at least an advisory and possible delayed school openings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 People need to read Roberts post, it's pretty good. It explains alot. https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/982453135118075/?type=1&permPage=1 Yeah that's a good read. Drizzle looks like a good bet. I still think we'll squeak out a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GSP fb post a hour ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yeah that's a good read. Drizzle looks like a good bet. I still think we'll squeak out a little more.He says " well below freezing temps down to upper SC" I got 20:1 odds we don't get below 35 Wednesday night. Taking bets now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 He says " well below freezing temps down to upper SC" I got 20:1 odds we don't get below 35 Wednesday night. Taking bets now Maybe you won't get below freezing, but I would not put 20 to 1 odds on it just yet. There is too much that can still happen. You could just as well be under clear skies and 25 degrees come Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 People need to read Roberts post, it's pretty good. It explains alot. https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/982453135118075/?type=1&permPage=1 He also made a comment that he thinks this could be a dangerous situation for southern VA and NC, even if it is just drizzle. He said the roads could be bad Wednesday morning. I know folks are saying this isn't a lot of precip, but it doesn't mean it still won't make a big impact on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yeah that's a good read. Drizzle looks like a good bet. I still think we'll squeak out a little more. When we were getting rain every week in December it always seemed to be more and last longer than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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