Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Cold Rain and Solak would be in the best zone: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150111+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Interesting to see how the models have as usual, progressively grown more aggressive w/ the intensity of this CAD event... We could continue to experience changes in the output possibly towards colder solutions in fact, especially once they are able to initialize the fresh snowpack that will be laid down to our north & north-northeast. CAA originating over fresh snowpack is a recipe for a forecast bust, & I'll be interested to see the response (if any) we see in the guidance once they pick up on this... I posted a relatively simple analysis of recent CAD events several weeks ago, and it certainly looks like we won't have to worry about how extensive our snowpack is, usually need to get the southern edge down to around Chicago, Fort Wayne, Columbus, & Pittsburgh to give us a legitimate shot at CAD w/ frozen precip, we'll be above & beyond that here. Based on the placement of the southern edge of the snowpack alone, I would tend to think that most of central & eastern NC may get involved & even upstate SC, somewhat analogous in terms of the southern extent of frozen precip (although not to the ferocity of course) to Jan 29-30 2010 & Jan 25, 2004. On the other hand, I think it's much easier to see why areas even as far south as Macon, GA dealt w/ freezing rain when looking at just how massive the snow pack was last year before the overrunning in the 2nd week of February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 gfs get's rdu all the way down to 27 Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Who cares about a tenth of an inch of ice? That's enough to lightly glaze the treetops. Why even get excited? This is a non-event. It's otherwise going to be a chilly day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 CMC icy too, this doesn't include the sleet by NC/VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Who cares about a tenth of an inch of ice? That's enough to lightly glaze the treetops. Why even get excited? This is a non-event. It's otherwise going to be a chilly day.This whole winter has been basically a non event, that's why a few lightly glazed treetops are getting people excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 gfs get's rdu all the way down to 27 Wednesday night. That's some serious cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Who cares about a tenth of an inch of ice? That's enough to lightly glaze the treetops. Why even get excited? This is a non-event. It's otherwise going to be a chilly day. this would cause trouble for the Wed morning commute so it's not a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not sure how you can call it a "non-event". If anything, freezing rain is the most dangerous event there is when it comes to wintry precip because of the traffic accident potential and black ice.... It is the type of thing that catches people off guard b/c the roads "look fine".... Last week a little bit of fzra causes big problems in eastern NC.... But back to the forecast, I agree with Webber. The snowpack to the NE will definitely play a factor in this event with the cold air... I think the biggest factor now will be the amount of moisture, not the cold air... We will see how the models run from here out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 this would cause trouble for the Wed morning commute so it's not a non-event. Unfortunately we have been relegated to tracking a .1-2" frzn event, but it's all we got. Now, if this were an 1" QPF deal then this would be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Who cares about a tenth of an inch of ice? That's enough to lightly glaze the treetops. Why even get excited? This is a non-event. It's otherwise going to be a chilly day. I'm not sure i'd call it 'excited'... Interested is more like it. Maybe if we got warning criteria ice I could get excited (from a weather standpoint). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Unfortunately we have been relegated to tracking a .1-2" frzn event, but it's all we got. Now, if this were an 1" QPF deal then this would be a big deal. I still think it's a big deal since it's overnight and early morning just before commuters get on the road, bridges/overpasses would be coated but all other roads will be too warm obviously. 0.24" at RDU isn't a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 this would cause trouble for the Wed morning commute so it's not a non-event.Not if it's a trace. It would do nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not if it's a trace. It would do nothing. If it's 0.00 it will definitely do nothing. Tell me how you know whether or not it will be a trace or 0.25" right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 If it's 0.00 it will definitely do nothing. Tell me how you know whether or not it will be a trace or 0.25" right now?Model trends, but also the fact that there's no coherent system to generate precip here, so it's more likely to end up being nothing at all than more than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Widre, maybe we'll end up with just a trace. But these little systems (and even the big ones) have tended to over perform this year, for whatever reason. The SW flow will provide lift over the cold dome and any disturbance will increase that. These waves, if they are real, may not be well modeled yet...hence my expectation for amounts to tick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Model trends, but also the fact that there's no coherent system to generate precip here, so it's more likely to end up being nothing at all than more than expected. I know it's easy with low QPF events to go all-in on a non-event, as it seems most likely. Safe bet, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 How much precip on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 How much precip on the Euro?00z basically has nothing over most of NC for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 How much precip on the Euro? The Euro continues to be Dr. No with this one... less than a tenth of an inch and really closer to a glaze than that. It's actually close to snow for you and I, LOL. It's actually too warm for ZR for most, verbatim, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z basically has nothing over most of NC for Wednesday. I'm guessing 12z must be the same since nobody wants to post about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm guessing 12z must be the same since nobody wants to post about it. Yes, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Time to lock this down and unlock the best thread ever( 15/16). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Time to lock this down and unlock the best thread ever( 15/16). It's nice being less than three days out and having one model showing basically nothing (Euro) and another model showing a major ice storm (Canadian) with the others somewhere in between. It inspires great confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not sure how you can call it a "non-event". If anything, freezing rain is the most dangerous event there is when it comes to wintry precip because of the traffic accident potential and black ice.... It is the type of thing that catches people off guard b/c the roads "look fine".... Last week a little bit of fzra causes big problems in eastern NC.... But back to the forecast, I agree with Webber. The snowpack to the NE will definitely play a factor in this event with the cold air... I think the biggest factor now will be the amount of moisture, not the cold air... We will see how the models run from here out. +1... I can't even believe some are trying to argue that this is a non-event... All it takes is a light glaze of ice (1/8 of inch if that in some cases) on the roads turn them into an ice skating rink and thus become impassible. Once totals reach .25 of an inch, then we start to run the possibility of experiencing widespread power outages. There are relatively few instances where I'll admit receiving ice is a "non-event". Totals of .1-.2 of an inch are pushing it as it is, any more than that and things will start becoming serious in a hurry, especially considering how cold it has been of late (& is projected to be)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Honestly, if it is enough to "wet" the roads, it can be significant or major. Once the surface of the road is ice, what difference does it make if it is 1/8" thick or 1/100" thick? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I don't have access to the Euro but has it always showed little moisture, or is it trending that way? Seems the NAM, GFS, and others are the ones holding onto a little more moisture and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Honestly, if it is enough to "wet" the roads, it can be significant or major. Once the surface of the road is ice, what difference does it make if it is 1/8" thick or 1/100" thick? TW Bingo! I don't think tire treads can tell the difference between 1/10 of an inch or 1/4 of an inch , on bridges or road surfaces! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z euro has around .05 for rdu vs gfs at .2. CMC is more like .6. edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Honestly, if it is enough to "wet" the roads, it can be significant or major. Once the surface of the road is ice, what difference does it make if it is 1/8" thick or 1/100" thick? TW The 1/8in demarcation was an arbitrary number, but to coat the roads entirely a certain thickness (threw out 1/8 inch to be on the safe side) to the ice is generally preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 +1... I can't even believe some are trying to argue that this is a non-event... All it takes is a light glaze of ice (1/8 of inch if that in some cases) on the roads turn them into an ice skating rink and thus become impassible. Once totals reach .25 of an inch, then we start to run the possibility of experiencing widespread power outages. There are relatively few instances where I'll admit receiving ice is a "non-event". Totals of .1-.2 of an inch are pushing it as it is, any more than that and things will start becoming serious in a hurry, especially considering how cold it has been of late (& is projected to be)... Right now I would say the NAM would be the safest medium between the models. A light glaze of .1 to .15 glaze at RDU with maybe close to .25 somewhere to the south and east of RDU. But I'm a realist and realize that we could get nothing; or could get just a little bit more to meet winter storm criteria(for somebody). If anything this is something to track in a winter that has had nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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