mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 So are you saying there's zero precip in Boone or are you saying it's cold enough for Frozen precip?Boone was the only one with any ice showing on that timeframe, and not much there, basically dry everywhere else, or just drizzle. Much drier than 12z, and that was pretty dry already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm moving from Columbus, GA to Charlottesville, VA via I-85 to US 29. I hope more than anything this doesn't happen... That said, I'm not liking what I'm seeing on the models starting just north of Charlotte on I-85 to Charlottesville on the 14th. Not going to be a fun drive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm moving from Columbus, GA to Charlottesville, VA via I-85 to US 29. I hope more than anything this doesn't happen... That said, I'm not liking what I'm seeing on the models starting just north of Charlotte on I-85 to Charlottesville on the 14th. Not going to be a fun drive... KATL and KMGE look a few degrees too warm but stranger things have happened..... Did you take a new job? I thought you were a broadcast met in Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 KATL and KMGE look a few degrees too warm but stranger things have happened..... Did you take a new job? I thought you were a broadcast met in Columbus. You must have missed the conversation a few weeks ago. Several members played along with "Guess the new home market of the Met" until the Candyman finally gave away his new destination. So, yes, he took a new job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm moving from Columbus, GA to Charlottesville, VA via I-85 to US 29. I hope more than anything this doesn't happen... That said, I'm not liking what I'm seeing on the models starting just north of Charlotte on I-85 to Charlottesville on the 14th. Not going to be a fun drive... Yeah that will be a rough drive. On your way to Charlottesville stop by my neck of the woods and get the best BBQ you could think of at Short Sugars right off of 29. Local mets are really downplaying this event. Feel like with the extremely cold ground temperatures this could cause some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 KATL and KMGE look a few degrees too warm but stranger things have happened..... Did you take a new job? I thought you were a broadcast met in Columbus. You must have missed the conversation a few weeks ago. Several members played along with "Guess the new home market of the Met" until the Candyman finally gave away his new destination. So, yes, he took a new job. Indeed. I am taking a new position in Charlottesville after being in Columbus the past 4+ years. I'm a little sad to be leaving, but excited to significantly up my yearly snow average! Yeah that will be a rough drive. On your way to Charlottesville stop by my neck of the woods and get the best BBQ you could think of at Short Sugars right off of 29. Local mets are really downplaying this event. Feel like with the extremely cold ground temperatures this could cause some issues. Hmm. May have to do that on my trek, if only to stop on my drive. Not looking forward to driving a U-haul and towing my car while the fiance follows. Should be fun. Speaking of ground temperatures, they are indeed cold. http://www.greencastonline.com/tools/gisFull.asp?maps=EastToday Honestly, I'd give it at least a mention like "watching Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for ice" or something like that if I worked up that way. Interestingly, the 00Z NAM shows this for Tuesday night: with the ice trying to get down near Greensboro, NC and points north. It then doesn't move it much through 4 AM Wednesday Even more interesting are the snow and ice maps. This has the "snow" line reaching into central VA, which I don't completely buy because the soundings don't show enough moisture in the "growth" zone. So this may be that may be more sleet/freezing drizzle/rain than snow, at least in central VA. The 0Z NAM is showing a light icing event from Asheboro, NC & points NE. The light, kind of transparent red is 0.01-0.05" of ice. The next contour is 0.05-0.1" of ice and so on. So, right where I have to drive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Candyman, I don't see how you ever survived down there. It's way too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Candyman, I don't see how you ever survived down there. It's way too hot. Not for this Florida boy! Besides, we only hit 106° once while I was here. That's not TOO hot, is it? (That broke our all-time record high, btw) It was a little over 4 years ago that I got to go through my first ice storm here. That after seeing snow on Christmas Day spoiled me... It wasn't until last year's ice/snow storm that we got anything significant again. Oh well... That's why I'm moving to a more icy location in central VA! Now, to learn how to ice skate with my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not for this Florida boy! Besides, we only hit 106° once while I was here. That's not TOO hot, is it? (That broke our all-time record high, btw) It was a little over 4 years ago that I got to go through my first ice storm here. That after seeing snow on Christmas Day spoiled me... It wasn't until last year's ice/snow storm that we got anything significant again. Oh well... That's why I'm moving to a more icy location in central VA! Now, to learn how to ice skate with my car. lol.. anything over 80 is too hot for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 0z looks exactly like 6z, basically dry. A few sprinkles, pellets. This one is looking no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 00z Canadian appears to show a decent bit of icing, based on the crude maps I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Knowing history, & tendencies for models to perform poorly w/ CAD esp. where CAA advection is originating over what will be a fresh snowpack to our north over PA, OH, NY, etc & uncertainty about the depth of the lower tropospheric cold layer, it's plausible to think some sleet may try to mix in anywhere generally along a line from Greensboro to Roxboro, points northwestward. However the dominant wintry p-type at this point obviously still appears to be Freezing Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 00z Canadian appears to show a decent bit of icing, based on the crude maps I've seen so far. Yep, not too shabby. May not be completely out of the woods either w/ this front running system, that's a little too close for comfort for the Triad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 WRAL just mentioned freezing rain for here Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro ensembles continue to show more qpf on this one and the second wave that has some snow potential. Will be interesting to see the trends today/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 6z NAM also looks like a nice hit of ice for the Triangle. Just looking at maps it looks like there is a 24 hour period of near to below freezing temps and around .25 freezing rain near RDU. Precip gets heavier as you go east(of RDU) but so would temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 What are heavier temps, FallsLake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro ensembles continue to show more qpf on this one and the second wave that has some snow potential. Will be interesting to see the trends today/tomorrow. For the coastal potential...Interesting the ENS mean is a west of the Op, came in wetter/colder than 12z EPS mean yesterday. Nice cluster right over HAT too. The 6z GEFS came in wetter than previous runs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 For the coastal potential...Interesting the ENS mean is a west of the Op, came in wetter/colder than 12z EPS mean yesterday. Nice cluster right over HAT too. The 6z GEFS came in wetter than previous runs too. That system will be a close call. it won't surprise me if the models struggle with it until mid-week. The phasing situations usually do not resolve themselves until late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Lol... just saw that Solak. If this actually materializes like the NAM is showing somebody may be in the "sweet" spot for ice. We have the problem where the temps will be colder the farther north and west you go but the precip gets heavier the farther east you get. That sweet spot could be you; especially if the temps are just a little bit colder (like CADs tend to be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Lol... just saw that Solak. If this actually materializes like the NAM is showing somebody may be in the "sweet" spot for ice. We have the problem where the temps will be colder the farther north and west you go but the precip gets heavier the farther east you get. That sweet spot could be you; especially if the temps are just a little bit colder (like CADs tend to be). We're starting to get into the period where we should start seeing adjustments up in QPF and down in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 12z NAM has less precip(between .1 -.15) for RDU than the 6z. It is a little colder. Looks like temps could drop into the upper 20s with light precip.. 850s even cool where it would be close to maybe some light snow (if growth region was adequate). Still far enough away that as long as it keeps showing precip the colder look is really what we want to see at this point. It's cold enough that maybe some even across the SC boarder could see very light freezing rain / drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z GFS is wetter and does show a significant event. Looks like close to .25 at RDU. Below is the p-types to give you an idea of extent. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_066_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150111+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=92 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150111+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Cold Rain and Solak would be in the best zone: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150111+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z GFS is wetter and does show a significant event. Looks like close to .25 at RDU. Below is the p-types to give you an idea of extent. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_066_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150111+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=92 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150111+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=92 Yep, looks like as I mentioned yesterday some areas, especially from Roxboro & the Triad & pts northwestward, embedded within a deeper near surface below freezing layer may have to deal w/ sleet mixing in at times... One can certainly hope that ends up being the dominant precip type in that region, nothing is worse than freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We're starting to get into the period where we should start seeing adjustments up in QPF and down in temps.I thought this is the part where we see QPF drop off? FWIW, the Euro is pretty dry on Wednesday. Basically a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yep ,12z brings freezing rain into the upstate on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Para has -zr down to CAE and even a little near WIL! On Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Para has -zr down to CAE and even a little near WIL! On Wed CAE is still watching it .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS AN 1040+ MB HIGH CONTINUES TO WEDGE IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY PRODUCE SOME WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW AS THE MODELS REMAIN UNSETTLED ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDEST AIR PENETRATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE WEDGE STRENGTHENING TUESDAY WITH A SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART. MULTIPLE GFS AND PAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED A THREAT BASED ON THE PARTIAL THICKNESS PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NEWBERRY...FAIRFIELD... LANCASTER...CHESTERFIELD AND NORTHERN KERSHAW COUNTIES. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE THE THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z GFS accumulation map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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