PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 15Z SREF is out. Shows RDU getting to freezing at around midnight... Staying there until around NOON. Highest precip chances between midnight and 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 SREF plumes are out: Wilson: .5 Raleigh: .25 Greensboro: .08 Charlotte: .04 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150113&RT=15&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=RDU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=34.72779099172078&mLON=-79.519459375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 SREF plumes are out: Wilson: .5 Raleigh: .25 Greensboro: .08 Charlotte: .04 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150113&RT=15&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=RDU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=34.72779099172078&mLON=-79.519459375&mTYP=roadmap That's down substantially from the last run, right? Wasn't the last run at .4 for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Quite a discrepancy between RDU and Wilson... Gotta remember that RDU is on the Wake/Durham line so this definitely points to a drop off in precip as you go west across Wake. Areas on one side of Wake may be totally different than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That's down substantially from the last run, right? Wasn't the last run at .4 for RDU? Latest 12k nam backs off too, less than .2" of precip, more of a overnight drizzle. We are getting our patented east trend, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 That's down substantially from the last run, right? Wasn't the last run at .4 for RDU? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 SREF plumes are out: Wilson: .5 Raleigh: .25 Greensboro: .08 Charlotte: .04 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150113&RT=15&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=RDU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=34.72779099172078&mLON=-79.519459375&mTYP=roadmap That's down substantially from the last run, right? Wasn't the last run at .4 for RDU? Goes up and up earlier today, and now it is going down as we get closer. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This is a pattern I've noticed over the last couple of years of tracking these things. You usually see a decent ramp up in QPF starting 24-36 hours out and then a consistent drop-off as you close in. Anyway, here's the latest radar. Precip is "exploding" now to the right of the red wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This is a pattern I've noticed over the last couple of years of tracking these things. You usually see a decent ramp up in QPF starting 24-36 hours out and then a consistent drop-off as you close in. Anyway, here's the latest radar. Precip is "exploding" now to the right of the red wall. southeast.gif Yeah, we are quibbling over .15" v/s .25" of precip...we suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Latest 12k nam backs off too, less than .2" of precip, more of a overnight drizzle. We are getting our patented east trend, LOL. PGV jackpots again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This is a pattern I've noticed over the last couple of years of tracking these things. You usually see a decent ramp up in QPF starting 24-36 hours out and then a consistent drop-off as you close in. Anyway, here's the latest radar. Precip is "exploding" now to the right of the red wall. southeast.gif Yeah, we are quibbling over .15" v/s .25" of precip...we suck. Funny thing is if it was just regular rain it would probably be the opposite. So many times in Dec when we had all that rain it was more than forecasted and lasted longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Anyway, I guess that will seal the deal on WSW for Wake Co., probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Off-topic, but pertains to this event.... Are there any good Twitter Accounts to follow for road conditions from Atlanta to Greensboro and US 29 to Charlottesville. I have to drive that way to get to my new job and I know there are going to be a few slick spots when I get up there around early afternoon. The worst of the ice looks to stay just east of Greensboro, but it's too close for comfort for me right now... :/ If I have to stop due to icy conditions, I'll try to post some great pics! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah, we are quibbling over .15" v/s .25" of precip...we suck. SREF sucks anyway...there's always this one huge precip member or one dry as a bone member that throws everything off. I wish that model mean actually made any logical sense. When you have the ARW at 0.64" and the NMM at 0.15" there's a problem. I look at the SREF for timing, precip type changeovers, etc...but that's it...not for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 SREF has been pretty consistent for FAY Total QPF has been staying about .3 inches average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 18z NAM a significant shift east with the heavier precip. Of note is that there's less then .10" across all of western NC (as opposed to being completely dry). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 PGV jackpots again! LOL yeah if the temps are 2-4 degrees colder otherwise we are 31-33 the entire event and that wont amount to much......we dont need rain after yesterday for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 18z NAM a significant shift east with the heavier precip. Of note is that there's less then .10" across all of western NC (as opposed to being completely dry). TW Amounts in the Piedmont was cut also :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 ...ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TONIGHT DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL UNCERTAIN... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE 1043MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ELONGATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR HAS ALREADY REACHED CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH DEW POINTS NOW IN THE TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS RICHMOND. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A 120 KT JET AT 250 MB IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REGION...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER....RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED WARMER AND MORE DELAYED WITH DROP OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM...IN THE TRIAD BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 9PM AND 12 AM AND IN THE GOLDSBORO AND FAYETTEVILLE AREA UNTIL 12AM TO 4AM. IN FACT...SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE SAMPSON...CUMBERLAN AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL ONLY FALL TO FREEZING 31/32 DEGREES WHICH WILL LIMIT ICING TO JUST A GLAZE IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WIL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 4 AND 8AM AND THEN BEGIN TO RISE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE TEMPERATURE TREND...THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IN GENERAL GUIDANCE RANGES FROM THE DRIER GFS AND THE PARALLEL GFS WHICH DROPS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES AFTER 00Z AT GSO AND RDU...THE SREF MEAN WHICH PRODUCES .11 AT GSO AND .40 AT RDU AND THE NAM WHICH PROVIDES 0.17 AT GSO AND .34 AT RDU. THE QPF AMOUNTS INCREASE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH FAYETTEVILLE FORECAST TO TO GET 0.28 FROM THE GFS..0.49 FROM THE SREF MEAN TO 0.60 FROM THE NAM. GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES INCREASED AMOUNTS FROM NW TO SE WITH A INLAND MAXIMUM SETTING IN A REGION OF FAVORED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM NEAR FAY TO RWI TO ECG. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE UNDERPERFORMING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE WITH RATHER SHALLOW SATURATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WOULD FAVOR THE MEAN OR LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCLUDED STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.07 AT GSO TO .23 AT RDU TO .42 AT FAY AN GSB. THE PTYPE WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN CHANGING FROM FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. SOME SLEET WILL MIX IN AT TIMES BUT IT WILL NOT BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE AND WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINE TO LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF US ROUTE 1. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES IN A REGION STRETCHING FROM AROUND SANFORD TO NEAR AND EAST OF RALEIGH TO NASHVILLE. LESSER AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC EXCEPT REDUCED AMOUNTS IN THE TRIAD WHERE QPF WILL BE LOWER BUT SFC TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE EFFICIENT FREEZING. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS...FROM FAYETTEVILLE SOUTH AND EAST THE TARDY ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR AND THE FACT IT WILL LINGER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING.MELTING TEMPERATURE SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH ALL OF CENTRAL NC ABOVE FREEZING AFTER NOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST O EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 35 TO 41 RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. -BLAES && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I kinda like looking at the SSEO during events like these...I'm interested to see how it verifies. 1hr min precip + type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Some of the worst fog I've ever seen in Boone right now with a temperature of 30° as I begin my journey down east to capture some aerial footage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Important highlights of the RAH AFD: ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TONIGHT DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE UNDERPERFORMING GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR THE MEAN OR LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS Typical winter weather event in NC. Edit: But, at least it's something. It's going to turn out about how I thought it would a few days ago, although I was hoping it would trend more substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 ...ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TONIGHT DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL UNCERTAIN...-BLAES&& Thats not gonna go over well here lol......lets hope the recent model guidance is screwed and misreading the strength and depth of the wedge..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Amounts in the Piedmont was cut also.Looks like that's showing close to 0.25" at GSO (I'm on the phone). Looks about as good as anything I've seen lately.I'm leaning towards a light glaze with a few pellets mixed in, so if we can get near 0.2" QPF, it would be a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 WWwatch replaced with WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 No WSW. All WWA's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Thats not gonna go over well here lol......lets hope the recent model guidance is screwed and misreading the strength and depth of the wedge..... Yeah, not likely at this point. Temp still at 38 with the dew point increasing to 31 at RDU. Not trending in the right direction. I know colder/drier air is working in. But it's always delayed it seems. Oh well. At least the LR is looking brighter...for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 WWA Text: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORMWATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...COASTAL PLAIN...NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AREA.* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 400 AM.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ANDSLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERYROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Down one degree in the last hour here in Colfax. It has been bouncing around a bit, but has started an obvious trend downward in the last hour. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Light freezing rain with a temp of 30 coming down hwy 421 in Wilkes County, mirrors are frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.