downeastnc Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Watch this be one of those situations where the cold air takes so long to spill in, that the precip is gone, like the GFS shows. the temp will hang up at 32-33 for HOURS while we get 90% of our QPF then drop down to 28-29 for that last little bit just to piss us off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 the temp will hang up at 32-33 for HOURS while we get 90% of our QPF then drop down to 28-29 for that last little bit just to piss us off. Lol winter in NC! Pack, kick start the Para and the RGEM....mkay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Temp is dropping at RDU, now at 38 with a dew point of 34. 36/32 now at Oxford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Watch this be one of those situations where the cold air takes so long to spill in, that the precip is gone, like the GFS shows. the temp will hang up at 32-33 for HOURS while we get 90% of our QPF then drop down to 28-29 for that last little bit just to piss us off. 12z NAM has Raleigh getting to 32 around 9PM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z NAM has Raleigh getting to 32 around 9PM tonight. HRRR has the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z NAM has Raleigh getting to 32 around 9PM tonight. We're at 38 now, which is miles better than when I've see us be at 45 before an event (when we were supposed to only be in the upper 30s). Lynchberg is 33 with a dp of 28. That's the closest reporting station I've seen near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 We're at 38 now, which is miles better than when I've see us be at 45 before an event (when we were supposed to only be in the upper 30s). Lynchberg is 33 with a dp of 28. That's the closest reporting station I've seen near freezing. Yeah, the temps will get there. Good cold air damming is about the only thing we can hang our hat on down here in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Fredericksburg VA now has a dew point at 13. At 6am they were 27. Richmond is still at 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah, the temps will get there. Good cold air damming is about the only thing we can hang our hat on down here in winter. Looks to be a 1040mb high centered over upstate NY not to shabby a setup......need it to overperform on the cold, be nice to see places get to or below freezing faster than progged might be a indication that the cold air is better than modeled. This really is one of those cases where a few degrees one way or the other could be a big deal especially in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nice banding on the radar around GSP , looking to be kind of dynamic, I think y'all will get plenty of moisture in Central and Eastern piedmont , into western Sandhills . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Its really fascinating to watch the progression of the backdoor cold front on the HRRR this afternoon. I've put together a series of floater products that show this nicely. Let me know if you guys would prefer I shift the grid further east to capture most of NC... http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt This evening: Freezing line near Charlotte by 05z with below freezing readings up along the escarpment in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The local mets around here in upstate sc keepsaying ZR and Drizzle in the upstate. I just do not see it happening in places like greenville, pickens, oconee, and anderson counties. Imo the sub freezing temps will never make it that far west. But who knows, we all know CADs can be more than whats being progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NWS RAH's 10:30am Media Briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/NWSRaleighBriefing13January2015_1030AM.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NWS RAH's 10:30am Media Briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/NWSRaleighBriefing13January2015_1030AM.pdf Looks like they have me below freezing for at least 12 hours. I don't get this part. Models still aren't in much agreement with precip amounts. Seems the models have been in agreement pretty much except for the GFS, and the RAP and NAM have been coming in with a little more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nice banding on the radar around GSP , looking to be kind of dynamic, I think y'all will get plenty of moisture in Central and Eastern piedmont , into western Sandhills . Looks like its being captured well by the HRRR... looks like most of the heavier stuff for the piedmont moves in after 00z though. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_flt.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like they have me below freezing for at least 12 hours. I don't get this part. Models still aren't in much agreement with precip amounts. Seems the models have been in agreement pretty much except for the GFS, and the RAP and NAM have been coming in with a little more precip. The cutoff on the western side is extremely sharp. It also happens that Wake county is very close to the cutoff line for a major storm. This impacts millions of people in terms of sensible weather. A 20 mile shift east or west would result in extremely different outcomes. I would go with low confidence too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm very much a newb at this stuff, but SREFs for RDU show 0.4" mean with 8 above, 11 below. Nearly all the below fall between .2" and .4" while most of the ones above are 0.6" to 1". Nearly all of it is shows as ZR (some IP). Is SREF out dated these days? Or otherwise, why wouldn't you have a consensus forecast a bit higher than the 0.1-0.25" predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like they have me below freezing for at least 12 hours. I don't get this part. Models still aren't in much agreement with precip amounts. Seems the models have been in agreement pretty much except for the GFS, and the RAP and NAM have been coming in with a little more precip. There bigger concern is east of us, 95 corridor. We are looking at a WWA, roughly .2-.25" of precip. The 95 corridor could be nasty, but like they said temps are close and precip amounts vary, 4km NAM, RGEM, GFS, not sure what else they are looking at. That area may need a WSWarning but it could be a very cold rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Brick, when the 12z GFS spits out .05" zr, and the 12z NAM offers up .32", I think that's a pretty solid statement to say the models aren't in much agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 There bigger concern is east of us, 95 corridor. We are looking at a WWA, roughly .2-.25" of precip. The 95 corridor could be nasty, but like they said temps are close and precip amounts vary, 4km NAM, RGEM, GFS, not sure what else they are looking at. That area may need a WSWarning but it could be a very cold rain too. Hey packbacker, how's the RGEM looking? I can't remember what time the 12z runs, but I know you keep up with it and have better maps to access. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Thanks for jumping in and offering your insight to the SE forum, Phil. Always appreciated. On a separate note (not directed at Phil), now might also be a good time to remind everyone that this is a weather board. As such, we tend to "root for" extreme weather events, particularly those of the wintry variety. Looking forward to an ice storm, or hoping to see freezing rain in your backyard, does not mean that you are wishing death and destruction on large portions of the populace. Many of us enjoy the variety of weather types for their beauty, their rarity, and just their pure "awesomeness". Everyone's entitled to their own opinion regarding which types of weather are preferred, but there's no need cast aspersions or character assassinations due to someone's affinity for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I still think Cold Rain and Solak will be in the "sweet spot". They may be in the perfect location to get far enough below freezing but also get higher amount of precip. 28 degrees with freezing rain is a big difference to 31 with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I still think Cold Rain and Solak will be in the "sweet spot". They may be in the perfect location to get far enough below freezing but also get higher amount of precip. 28 degrees with freezing rain is a big difference to 31 with freezing rain. I'm expecting a WWA and getting around .2 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hey packbacker, how's the RGEM looking? I can't remember what time the 12z runs, but I know you keep up with it and have better maps to access. Thanks! Here you go... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45350-113-114-freezing-rain-threat/page-13#entry3253087 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm expecting a WWA and getting around .2 here. Or a special weather statement, we go low or go home here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah, the temps will get there. Good cold air damming is about the only thing we can hang our hat on down here in winter. FWIW, we are 35/28 in northern Granville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 FWIW, we are 35/28 in northern Granville. That's great news. Dew point near Richmond is 26 and in the low 20s just north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 37/33 in GSO as of noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 37.1f/34.5f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Or a special weather statement, we go low or go home here.... Looks like excitement for this one has peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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