Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The NAM-4km finally backed off those crazy high qpf totals in NE NC. But still decent amounts for ice accrual for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks about right, about .2" for RDU, more NE. I would suspect WWA's to be put for Wake and points west and WSW's put up for counties east of us at noon. RGEM held, roughly .3" of precip for RDU and more as you move NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The NAM-4km finally backed off those crazy high qpf totals in NE NC. But still decent amounts for ice accrual for sure. LOL, shows 9" or rain over HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 While the NAM-4K backed off the crazy totals for the RDU area, it did enhance precipitation all across the state of NC. Greater than 0.1 inch of precipitation now spreads over almost of the state, except for the mountain counties. How often do you see that? The mountain counties may be the only counties in NC to not experience a decent amount of wintry weather out of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ok, so at what point do we start the process of determining that the precipitation on radar is actually heavier and more expansive than the models are showing? And when do we start seeing the HRRR and RAP up the precip amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks about right, about .2" for RDU, more NE. I would suspect WWA's to be put for Wake and points west and WSW's put up for counties east of us at noon. RGEM held, roughly .3" of precip for RDU and more as you move NE. My guess is that Wake would be put into a WSW because areas south and east of Raleigh have a good chance of seeing .25 or >. For your and my location we would probably only receive Advisory level amounts (^^^around.2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 My guess is that Wake would be put into a WSW because areas south and east of Raleigh have a good chance of seeing .25 or >. For your and my location we would probably only receive Advisory level amounts (^^^around.2). Actually I was wrong on the RGEM, looks we are in the donut hole for precip, LOL. You literally can't make this stuff up. We are in the .1" range and everyone around us in .25"+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 While the NAM-4K backed off the crazy totals for the RDU area, it did enhance precipitation all across the state of NC. Greater than 0.1 inch of precipitation now spreads over almost of the state, except for the mountain counties. How often do you see that? The mountain counties may be the only counties in NC to not experience a decent amount of wintry weather out of this event. For a cold air wedge, this is actually not that unusual. Since cold air is denser than warm air, it tends to be very shallow and bumps up against the mountains instead of filtering in. NAM has some zr potential in the mountains but it is almost always overdone with that because the cold air (even on a NE wind and wedge scenario) typically doesn't make it above and through the escarpment. Places east of the escarpment will be more favored. Mountain areas, including AVL and such, should just be drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 My concern is the wind and saturated ground in the Nash/Wilson area. We had 2.68" of rain yesterday and every crrek and ditch is over it's banks. Adding a a 1/4" of ice or more on trees that are being swayed by 25-30 MPH gust, you are going to start seeing some uprooting and widspread power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 My guess is that Wake would be put into a WSW because areas south and east of Raleigh have a good chance of seeing .25 or >. For your and my location we would probably only receive Advisory level amounts (^^^around.2). I agree about Wake. We'll have to wait for the HRRR later today but just because of the large population and commuting areas, combine that with no NCDOT road treatment, we'll see a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Latest from WxSouth: The new incoming high resolution data paints an ugly picture in Raleigh, Fayetteville, stretching due north into much of eastern Virginia. This is the most solid zone where I think moisture + cold air, will both be strongest tonight and Tomorrow. The big question is how far inland to bring the heavy precip? I already banked on widespread freezing drizzle very far west--no changes there, into West Virginia, southeast Kentucky zones as well. But now we have the short term RAP model and it's seeing heavier precip rates in eastern NC, eastern VA overnight. There's a chance this sharp temperature contrast may spark a decent low right offshore, and if that happens, then eastern NC and eastern VA, up to near southside of DC, lower Maryland will get more of the effects as well. But the heart of the absolute most icing still looks right around the Triangle to eastern Virgnia (just inland). Once the storm pulls out tomorrow, even the coast may have mixing. But just inland is where the deeper cold will sit. Also, there could be a narrow band of significant, accumulatiing sleet in southern , middle VA, northern NC where the cold is too deep and thick, changing the freezing droplets into sleet pellets before hitting the ground. If enough moisture pulls into central, northern Virginia, Maryland, then a little bit of snow is possible. Probably won't be much though. As always,a tight interplay between subtle features, making a complex forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Actually I was wrong on the RGEM, looks we are in the donut hole for precip, LOL. You literally can't make this stuff up. We are in the .1" range and everyone around us in .25"+ range. I'll take that map any day. That hole is probably wrong and even if it wasn't everybody in the hole would be in the high end of the .1 - .25 range. **NWS would have to push WSW one county westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Most models have us .50-.75" qpf in and around PGV but temps here look to only be marginall 32 so no big concern if we are able to somehow get 28-29 though we would have a mess with those kind of QPF totals, its gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 For a cold air wedge, this is actually not that unusual. Since cold air is denser than warm air, it tends to be very shallow and bumps up against the mountains instead of filtering in. NAM has some zr potential in the mountains but it is almost always overdone with that because the cold air (even on a NE wind and wedge scenario) typically doesn't make it above and through the escarpment. Places east of the escarpment will be more favored. Mountain areas, including AVL and such, should just be drizzle. I fully understand how the CAD works with the temperatures. I was just pointing out how the precipitation amounts, no matter the type, are much greater in all other portions of the state except the mountains. This bespeaks the benefits of the moisture coming from the gulf rather than from the NW, when the mountains tend to wring out most (or all) of the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Most models have us .50-.75" qpf in and around PGV but temps here look to only be marginall 32 so no big concern if we are able to somehow get 28-29 though we would have a mess with those kind of QPF totals, its gonna be close. It's always a game, where you want to be closer to the heavy precip but far enough westward to be cold enough for wintery p-types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ok, so at what point do we start the process of determining that the precipitation on radar is actually heavier and more expansive than the models are showing? And when do we start seeing the HRRR and RAP up the precip amounts? Right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Right about now. Best Brick post ever....latest HRR ramps up the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 ^^ Hey Brick, where can I go to run that? I want to bookmark it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Right about now. RAP HRRR simulated radar at hour 15: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=01500ℑ=data%2Fhrrr%2F14%2Fhrrr_east-us_01500_sim_radar.gif&model=hrrr&area=east-us¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+14+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=yes P-types ay hour 15: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=01500ℑ=data%2Fhrrr%2F14%2Fhrrr_east-us_01500_precip_type.gif&model=hrrr&area=east-us¶m=precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+14+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like GFS is relatively the same with precip amounts as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 No mention of SC in Roberts latest thoughts, imagine that! Told y'all the other day, this is how it would play out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 ^^ Man that is a tight cutoff. That's going to be either right through Wake or on one boarder or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS basically has nothing after temps reach freezing west of a line from RDU airport to Pinehurst No. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS basically has nothing after temps reach freezing west of a line from RDU airport to Pinehurst No. 2 Watch this be one of those situations where the cold air takes so long to spill in, that the precip is gone, like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Great the para isn't running, first event to track and the RGEM was 90 mins late last night and now the para isn't running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Great the para isn't running, first event to track and the RGEM was 90 mins late last night and now the para isn't running. Has the Para taken over for the old GFS or is that tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Has the Para taken over for the old GFS or is that tomorrow? Tomorrow I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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