superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 LOL, the Euro is warmish and relatively dry. Well, it still gets 0.2" to RDU, but some of that appears to be rain. Anything over 0.3" is confined to south of Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Okay great! It seems my best bet would be to find a hotel around Rocky Mount tomorrow evening and wait until about noon or so Wednesday to start venturing around to capture footage. Sounds good. Like to see how they turn out! Depending on when you are leaving I'd check by here or the NWS to hone in on the best spot tomorrow afternoon.. These type of events can be fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Interesting setup here in Hampton, VA. 00z NAM has an ice storm on the peninsula but rain on the the southside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Mhx went WWA and seem to go with warmer dryer gfs. They have us getting to 32 with around .10 and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Good morning!! What a way to wake up (Winter Storm Watch)!! The 6z models NAM - Basically stayed the same. It could be a touch dryer to put RDU just under .5 .1 extends way back to the foothills Old GFS - Wetter but still the driest. Puts RDU between the .1 and .25 --much dryer as you go west. Para - Puts RDU right at the .25 mark. Drops off quickly as you west. Latest RAP - Looks good at hour 18 with precip building Edit: Forgot the SREF-- Basically looks like the NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_039_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=03¶m=precip_p24&fhr=039&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+03+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NCDOT just said they will not brine ahead of time due to it being rain initially, only spot treating icy areas as they are called in...this should get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Current watches, warnings, and advisories for NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NCDOT just said they will not brine ahead of time due to it being rain initially, only spot treating icy areas as they are called in...this should get interesting. Where did you hear that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NCDOT just said they will not brine ahead of time due to it being rain initially, only spot treating icy areas as they are called in...this should get interesting. I have a friend that works for DOT, he's always told me that. If it's going to rain first it's just a waste of time and money to put out brine, rain will just wash it away. It only works if snow/sleet at the start of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Where did you hear that? NCDOT spokesman on News14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Good morning!! What a way to wake up (Winter Storm Watch)!! The 6z models NAM - Basically stayed the same. It could be a touch dryer to put RDU just under .5 .1 extends way back to the foothills Old GFS - Wetter but still the driest. Puts RDU between the .1 and .25 --much dryer as you go west. Para - Puts RDU right at the .25 mark. Drops off quickly as you west. Latest RAP - Looks good at hour 18 with precip building Edit: Forgot the SREF-- Basically looks like the NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_039_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=03¶m=precip_p24&fhr=039&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+03+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 WRAL showing their in-house model with only .10 for Raleigh. I think they might be setting up their viewers for a bad surprise. The blend of the models looks like at least .25 for the area, and that is when power can go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I have a friend that works for DOT, he's always told me that. If it's going to rain first it's just a waste of time and money to put out brine, rain will just wash it away. It only works if snow/sleet at the start of event.Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 So I am guessing this is pretty much a non-event for the western piedmont? Shelby/forest city area? Looks as if we will be to far west this go round... If you split the state of North Carolina into four quadrants (don't ask me where the dividing lines are), the greatest impacts would be felt by the following quadrants, in descending order: NE, SE, NW, SW. (You're all free to bicker about the order of the middle two, but the first and last seem to be pretty much set in stone.) Thus IMO, you are correct that the Shelby area will experience minimal impacts, if anything, from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This is 1/28/14 all over again with the precip gradient setting up over wake county Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Love watching a wedge build in. Temps been dropping all morning. DPS in the teens are coming across VA /MD line and the DPS in the 20s should start crossing NC /VA over the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Interesting setup here in Hampton, VA. 00z NAM has an ice storm on the peninsula but rain on the the southside. No doubt it is going to be close here. NWS has a lot of us on the southside at 31 tonight and 33 tomorrow with 70% rain...I guess it needs to be below 31 to get ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Im surprised by how uniform the temp spread is over the central eastern part of NC, usually we run warmer going into events like this compared to RDU, but RDU and PGV are pretty much even on temps and DP at the moment anyways......a 1-2 degree colder airmass at the surface will make or break this event if we get most of us down into the upper 20's with .25-.50" qpf it will be pretty bad, but if its 30-32 with less than .25" its a meh event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 And it could be right. As we discussed yesterday we will have to wait to see how the precip develops. More conservative precip amounts is usually a very good direction in which to lean. However, as I have pointed out many times, most of our events have overperformed this season. Not trying to be a but the usual rule MAY not apply. Now watch the Nam come in much drier. It probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 More conservative precip amounts is usually a very good direction in which to lean. However, as I have pointed out many times, most of our events have overperformed this season. Not trying to be a but the usual rule MAY not apply. Now watch the Nam come in much drier. It probably will. Yesterday I stated that if I received between .1 and .15 of freezing rain I would consider this a win; especially with temps in the 20s. I haven't backed off that number. I'm really hoping for more but that's my benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yesterday I stated that if I received between .1 and .15 of freezing rain I would consider this a win; especially with temps in the 20s. I haven't backed off that number. I'm really hoping for more but that's my benchmark. That's a solid expectation. I'm thinking about .2 for me, as I'm a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nam looks wet for I-95 from what I can tell so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nam looks wet for I-95 from what I can tell so far. More precip down east but looks to be holding close to the last two runs for RDU (just under .5): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Edit: .1 line still out to the foothills. Solid Advisory criteria for western piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 SREF plumes are wetter and wetter for RDU with each run. However, the distribution is bimodal, which is a potential killer. Then again, they always tend to be that way. The mean is still 0.4ish, which is a healthy amount of precip to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The SREF temp is pretty tight though... so at least we have that. 7PM tonight the mean is already at 32-33. for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm not liking being in the 'bullseye' for a potential icing event. It used to be exciting, and even an adventure, but that was back when the wife and I could share preparations and responsibilities, and if needed, the cleanup in the yard afterwards. Now with her medical condition and lack of mobility, everything falls on me. Fortunately, unlike 2 years ago with Lynne, and about 8 years ago with her mom, there aren't any medical devices we need power for to worry about. It certainly does raise the stress level quite a bit, though. A nighttime event makes it even more daunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The 0.1 inch line keeps pushing farther west with each run. This run even gets a small portion of NE GA in the 0.1 inch range (although temps there won't be cold enough to cause any problems). Also, note the 1000-850mb thickness line dipping down in NC... could be more of a sleet event than expected. Mods.... are we posting current conditions for the storm in this thread or the obvs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The SREF temp is pretty tight though... so at least we have that. 7PM tonight the mean is already at 32-33. for RDU SREF plumes are wetter and wetter for RDU with each run. However, the distribution is bimodal, which is a potential killer. Then again, they always tend to be that way. The mean is still 0.4ish, which is a healthy amount of precip to have. Here's the SREF 24 hr total precip at hour 33: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_033_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p24&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+09+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 This would put RDU > .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 FWIW, the Meteogram for FAY .. . Looks like the GFS caved overnight. Much jucier over the Sandhills with latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hey guys, posted this on twitter, and now here, my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 More precip down east but looks to be holding close to the last two runs for RDU (just under .5): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Edit: .1 line still out to the foothills. Solid Advisory criteria for western piedmont. I think a good bit of that precip in the western piedmont fall before temperatures reach freezing especially south of I-40. There is still a decent amount of spread as to when that area reaches 32 degrees as the RGEM and the SREF take us there about 01Z and 03Z respectively. Others have us reaching 32 between 06Z and 09Z. One thing to watch today for us on the southern edge of this event is the progress of the freezing line southward through Virginia into Northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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