Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 1973 called. They want their WSW map back I like the details of the highways.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 More sleet, .4-.45", all frozen. I thought this was going to be just spotty freezing drizzle. Now, a winter storm watch. Goes to show us how the models can change in one day as we approach an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Don't worry. It will very likely still turn into an advisory. It looks like the models have all been coming in wetter except the old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 To heck with those folks under a Winter Storm Watch... MBY will probably be under a...... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT :tomato: :tomato: Will have to stay up for the Euro now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This really isn't an IMBY post but I'd love to head down from Boone to wherever the brunt of the ice storm will be so I can capture some aerials to document any impacts it has. If someone could give a few locations that look to get the worst of this and general timeframe (start, finish) it would be greatly appreciated. If you aren't familiar with my work check out my site nelsonaerials.com to see the kind of quality I'll be putting into this. Thanks guys and keep up the great work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS Para throws .10 almost all the way back to the Blue Ridge...this is turning out to be an interesting little system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The 00z GFS is getting better, compared to 18z and even 12z. Maybe it's slower on the uptake. Or maybe it's gonna be right. I'd bet on the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This really isn't an IMBY post but I'd love to head down from Boone to wherever the brunt of the ice storm will be so I can capture some aerials to document any impacts it has. If someone could give a few locations that look to get the worst of this and general timeframe (start, finish) it would be greatly appreciated. If you aren't familiar with my work check out my site nelsonaerials.com to see the kind of quality I'll be putting into this. Thanks guys and keep up the great work. If you do this, you need to find a place to go and stay there. Watching people from Eastern NC drive on ice, is something best experienced by watching the local news on a hi def big screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This really isn't an IMBY post but I'd love to head down from Boone to wherever the brunt of the ice storm will be so I can capture some aerials to document any impacts it has. If someone could give a few locations that look to get the worst of this and general timeframe (start, finish) it would be greatly appreciated. If you aren't familiar with my work check out my site nelsonaerials.com to see the kind of quality I'll be putting into this. Thanks guys and keep up the great work. Rocky Mount would be my guess for the worst hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Update from me with my thoughts if I was forecasting up in NC. Tell me what yall think. Like my page as well, if you want... https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Will be interesting to see which one verifies as we are about to enter a new era of the GFS. Parallel could make some on this board believers if it ends up being correct. Light Green =.10 Dark Green= .30 Blue= .50 Yellow= 1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Will be interesting to see which one verifies as we are about to enter a new era of the GFS. Parallel could make some on this board believers if it ends up being correct. gfscomp.png What's the color scale on those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 What's the color scale on those? Light Green =.10 Dark Green= .30 Blue= .50 Yellow= 1.00 You know you look at models too much when you have the color scale memorized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Don't worry. It will very likely still turn into an advisory. Or 70 and sunshine. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This really isn't an IMBY post but I'd love to head down from Boone to wherever the brunt of the ice storm will be so I can capture some aerials to document any impacts it has. If someone could give a few locations that look to get the worst of this and general timeframe (start, finish) it would be greatly appreciated. If you aren't familiar with my work check out my site nelsonaerials.com to see the kind of quality I'll be putting into this. Thanks guys and keep up the great work. Looking like the I-95 corridor maybe between Wilson and Rocky Mount. Timing wise looks to start tomorrow tomorrow afternoon in the form of showers with temps dropping below freezing in this vicinity between 6-9pm. Looks like temp will go above freezing by early afternoon Wednesday with rain/freezing rain ending around then. Exact location and best timing subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NEW AFD: PRECIPITATION: IN THE WAKE OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...LIGHTRAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGHTUESDAY IN ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION ATOP A PRONOUNCED COLD AIRDAMMING WEDGE. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ ATOP THECAD WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHINGSHORTWAVE TUE EVE/NIGHT...RESULTING IN ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ASA HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS (H85) ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WARMADVECTION AND DPVA (ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) IN THEPRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OFHEAVY PRECIPITATION TUE EVE/NIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE HWY 1CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERMAL PROFILES WILL BESUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN INPARTICULAR...THOUGH SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE SATURATIONEXTENDS TO/ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM AND IF/WHERE EVAP COOLING/COLDADVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN THE SFC-925 MB COLD NOSE.CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TOTHE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE COMPLICATED NATUREOF FORCING AT PLAY...HOWEVER...VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HASTRENDED WETTER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...INDICATING LIQUID EQUIVAMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" EAST OF HWY 1 AND 0.01-0.10" ACROSS THEWESTERN PIEDMONT. WINTER WX: ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1 INEFFECT FROM 9 PM TUE EVENING THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY FORPOTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ASSOC/W FREEZINGRAIN...AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL SLEET. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATESTICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OFTHE TRIANGLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Wish my area could be mentioned somewhere. I live in Prince George Va, Just SE of Petersburg; We seem to never be mentioned in the mid-atlantic or se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 RGEM definitely came in west/wetter. Looks similar to the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Is this a wedge situation? It seems I can never recall a wedge getting to Rocky Mount and areas East of 95!? I thought they were normally I-85 and west, more or less ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looking like the I-95 corridor maybe between Wilson and Rocky Mount. Timing wise looks to start tomorrow tomorrow afternoon in the form of showers with temps dropping below freezing in this vicinity between 6-9pm. Looks like temp will go above freezing by early afternoon Wednesday with rain/freezing rain ending around then. Exact location and best timing subject to change.Okay great! It seems my best bet would be to find a hotel around Rocky Mount tomorrow evening and wait until about noon or so Wednesday to start venturing around to capture footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Sounds like Benson/Smithfield area is the sweetspot for bad icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 "THOUGH SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE SATURATIONEXTENDS TO/ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM AND IF/WHERE EVAP COOLING/COLDADVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN THE SFC-925 MB COLD NOSE." Jon, Any idea where you think this might occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You guys can stop complaining about winter now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You know it's an event when Ji stops by to say sup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You guys can stop complaining about winter now LOL...I know you guys don't get out of bed unless it's a 10" snowstorm and the winter is at 140% of climo. The streak you guys are on since 09/10 is amazing, you are running 160% of climo over the past 5 winters and you guys have the biggest snowfall in the east this winter. Just rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 "THOUGH SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE SATURATION EXTENDS TO/ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM AND IF/WHERE EVAP COOLING/COLD ADVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN THE SFC-925 MB COLD NOSE." Jon, Any idea where you think this might occur? I couldn't say without looking at short range soundings tomorrow...I'd guess anywhere between US-1 and I-95 is fair game...Franklin County, Johnson, etc. all have sig IP on the 00z NAM so the triangle has a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You guys can stop complaining about winter now A couple of us can. For 98% of the SE the complaints go right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The NAVGEM really hammers I-85 again. It's wet for all, though. The RGEM is also a plastering for most, with 0.2" stretching back to roughly I-85. RDU is more like 0.5". It is also really cold with temperatures falling into the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hope the 6z and 12z comes out the same, or many wont be starting their day off good. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Out of curiosity, did the GGEM trend wet/west too? I seem to remember earlier runs being pretty wet compared to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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