WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It should be noted that the 12z Euro was also a lot wetter than the 00z Euro for NC. Only the GFS is dry at this point. If we have the RGEM, Euro and NAM, then I would be surprised if the GFS scored a coup, but weirder things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That's what you call getting NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 4km NAM would be limb snapping for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM puts me in the game! Even some sleet up towards ROA on this run. Eastern NC just gets NAM'd with ice. I might get a bonafide dusting of sleet at this point! Needless to say, I'll be up for some EURO disappointment tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Need the RGEM to show this to be believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 How bout some qpf for gboro rdu fay. I'm only out to hr 27 on coolwx. Watching game to thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 4km NAM would be limb snapping for RDU. hits 32 at the surface at 00z Wed...dropping 0.5"+ ZR? boom goes the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The NAM is by far the wettest model at CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nam gives GSO around .25 of ZR and maybe some sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 hits 32 at the surface at 00z Wed...dropping 0.5"+ ZR? boom goes the trees. Eastern half of wake gets almost 1"QPF, way overdone. Even GSO is up to .4" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The NAM is by far the wettest model at CLTSadly, depending on how you look at it, all rain S and W of CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Eastern half of wake gets almost 1"QPF, way overdone. Even GSO is up to .4" or so. lol the WxBell clown map has 10.1" "snow" in NE NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Be careful drinking the NAM cool aid. .40" at GSO - I doubt it (but I hope so). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Eastern half of wake gets almost 1"QPF, way overdone. Even GSO is up to .4" or so. Good grief. Cut it by 4x at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Northeastern NC gets NAM'd so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Eastern half of wake gets almost 1"QPF, way overdone. Even GSO is up to .4" or so. I agree, way overdone. I have a feeling this is typical nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Good grief. Cut it by 4x at least. The thing to take away is the precip shield is moving west .1-.25" looks possible for our area, maybe more around 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Northeastern NC gets NAM'd so hard. This will be interesting to see verify. There such thing as ice chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The possibility of sleet is really intriguing to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I dunno. This is an ice town. We overperform in ice events. Reverse bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tblevins Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Keep in mind that this last event, gfs was a lot drier on Saturday and Sunday (for RDU), where the nam started catching on, on Sunday. Seems wise to take a blend of gfs and nam at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I dunno. This is an ice town. We overperform in ice events. Reverse bust? You may, we never over perform on any winter events in our area. We always divide by 3 and add 5F to 850's and 2m's, that usually gets us close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You may, we never over perform on any winter events in our area. We always divide by 3 and add 5F to 850's and 2m's, that usually gets us close. Lol. Truth. Widre, is gonna believe me next time when I say the models are about to start upping totals and lowering temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Lol. Truth. Widre, is gonna believe me next time when I say the models are about to start upping totals and lowering temps. They always do, but they'll back off again as we get to tomorrow midday. The radar will look like **** this time tomorrow night, I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like imma gonna sit this one out! To far North and West.... Maybe a bit of Frizzle, but that's doubtful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Holy moly!! check out these totals. If this were all ice, i cant imagine the impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Keep in mind that this last event, gfs was a lot drier on Saturday and Sunday (for RDU), where the nam started catching on, on Sunday. Seems wise to take a blend of gfs and nam at this point Good point, the NAM actually did fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 They always do, but they'll back off again as we get to tomorrow midday. The radar will look like **** this time tomorrow night, I guarantee it. I can't tell you why really, but most of these events have over performed this winter, including today. I've felt pretty good about this not being a totally dry event all along. How much? Still up in the air, but I would not be surprised to see warning criteria ice in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Holy moly!! check out these totals. If this were all ice, i cant imagine the impacts. 0.75"+ in downtown Raleigh you can forget any morning commute plans. A can dream. Honestly I don't want loss of power though...NAM needs to back off. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 0.75"+ in downtown Raleigh you can forget any morning commute plans. A can dream. Honestly I don't want loss of power though...NAM needs to back off. lol Well RGEM will be out in 15 mins, that will be a reality check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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