packfan98 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's time. Latest GFS shows possible warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Just to be clear, this is for the overrunning CAD event and not for the potential coastal, yes? Probably a good idea to separate them as it was getting kind of confusing in the pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Any chance that sleet field projected for Va can include any of NC or is the cold retreating during this time? Ice typically ain't no friend of mine in these conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I don't think it makes it to Upstate, just looks like a cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Any chance that sleet field projected for Va can include any of NC or is the cold retreating during this time? Ice typically ain't no friend of mine in these conditions. Looks possible, for a brief period, in my area on the 06z GFS for Wednesday evening. The 12z run actually look like a longer period for north central NC border areas (Granville and Person)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 CMC very GFS like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 CMC very GFS like. You getting fired up yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 You getting fired up yet? Yippee... light frzn, glaze on deck railing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yippee... light frzn, glaze on deck railing.Y'all should be fired up, may be the highlight of the winter, if it keeps going like this! I would kill for a glaze on the deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Y'all should be fired up, may be the highlight of the winter, if it keeps going like this! I would kill for a glaze on the deck Throw a bucket of water out on the deck tonight. mission accomplished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 At hour 72 you can see the push of dryer/colder dew points into central NC. All the SE CAD folks will need to monitor this to see how far south this gets in future runs. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=72¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 At hour 72 you can see the push of dryer/colder dew points into central NC. All the SE CAD folks will need to monitor this to see how far south this gets in future runs. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=72¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Agreed. 1044 high, in perfect location! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 At hour 72 you can see the push of dryer/colder dew points into central NC. All the SE CAD folks will need to monitor this to see how far south this gets in future runs. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=72¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Not even close for the upstate though with DPs 40-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS @ 78 84 90 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yeah, if I lived in Person county, I would be worried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z shows .48" zr on Meteostar and Coolwx for RAH on Wed.. Wife has PT on Wed. I'd rather go to therapy, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'll take sleet, please. That's a lengthy run of frozen precip for central VA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1035 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015 ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PULASKI- MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA- HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 1035 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro is a descent ZR event for CAD areas of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro is a descent ZR event for CAD areas of NC. Does it match up with the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks pretty light on the Euro to me, but it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks pretty light on the Euro to me, but it's something. 0.1-0.2" east of 85 on the Euro for just FRZN part, much lighter than 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I will put this in here as well, as I talk about this event as well. Update on the rest of your weekend weather, when will the rain arrive, and how cold? PLUS, could something wintry be brewing for **PORTIONS** of the SE next week? Watch the video for more details on YOUR forecast. Thanks for watching and please hit the invite button on my page to invite your Facebook friends, I really appreciate it! Have a great day. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 periods of zr have been introduced to our forecast per RAH... Zone forecast Tuesday Cloudy. A chance of rain or freezing rain in the morning...then a chance of rain or drizzle in the afternoon. Near steady temperature around 40. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Tuesday Night Cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening...then a chance of rain or freezing rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Wednesday Cloudy. A chance of rain or freezing rain in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z Euro is warmer and drier than 00z. But this is a marginal event anyway, so I expect small swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 RAH has put out a Hazardous Weather statement for the northern piedmont: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC309 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015NCZ008>011-023>027-038>041-111200-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-309 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AND A CHANCE FORPRECIPIATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZINGRAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.This is part of their afternoon discussion: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE THE MOST IMPACTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SET UP BY A 1040 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN NY/SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMBINE FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THE WEDGE FRONT DOES NOT REALLY BUILD INTO THE TRIAD UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...THUS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. THERE IS NOT A TON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER...ALTHOUGH THE BEST OF IT BEGINS AROUND 18Z TUESDAY BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHUTTING DOWN. THEREFORE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN ON MONDAY WITH THE MODELS PRODUCING GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIQUID PRECIPITATION ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WHAT WILL COME INTO QUESTION ARE THE SURFACE AIR AND SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES WHICH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY ON TUESDAY. THAT BEING SAID MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES SEEN WITH FULL SUN THICKNESS VALUES...INSTEAD OF THOSE TYPICALLY SEEN WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CARRY CHANCES OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT IS TOO EARLY TO IRON OUT ANY DETAILS ON POTENTIAL ICING AT THIS TIME...SO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS DETAILS EMERGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knowledgeispwr Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 RAH put out a separate Hazardous Weather Outlook for Forsyth, Guilford and Person counties in NC: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC309 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015NCZ007-021-022-111200-PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-309 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THENORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PERSON COUNTY FOR AFEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... MAINLY BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM.LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AND A CHANCE FORPRECIPIATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZINGRAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18z says take your drizzle and only drizzle , unless you live in Boone!! Much drier! Luckily it's the 18z GFS , so we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18z says take your drizzle and only drizzle , unless you live in Boone!! Much drier! Luckily it's the 18z GFS , so we tossSo are you saying there's zero precip in Boone or are you saying it's cold enough for Frozen precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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