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Jan 12-14 Minor Ice and Snow Disco/Obs


Bob Chill

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mcd0032.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0750 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV...CNTRL/NRN VA...WRN MD...AND FAR

SRN PA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 120150Z - 120745Z

SUMMARY...LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE

DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 03Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY

MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY APPROACH .02 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SFC OBS AS OF 01Z SHOW VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN

PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WV...CNTRL/NRN VA...WRN MD...AND FAR SRN PA.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM RNK AND IAD ALSO DEPICT A DRY LAYER OF AIR

BETWEEN THE SFC AND 850 MB ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT SFC HIGH

PRESSURE/WEDGE NOW RETREATING EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A LARGE

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS WV AND CNTRL/NRN VA IS

ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFTING ATTENDANT TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE

SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL

CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WITH TEMPERATURES

GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...AND DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO

LOWER 20S...SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW

32 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

RECENT REPORTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AIR

TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION IS

BEGINNING TO FREEZE...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO COLD GROUND

TEMPERATURES. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS THE LIGHT RAIN

CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE AIR TEMPERATURE SHOULD

CONTINUE TO COOL TO THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE...WHICH IS BELOW

FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS MAY INITIALLY BE LIGHT/SHOWERY

AS THE RESIDUAL DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS

ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE S/SW AND THE

COLUMN SATURATES...FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD EVENTUALLY

INCREASE...AND MAY APPROACH .02 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

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small amount of light sleet, perhaps rain mixed in

should transition over to regular rain by 1030pm or so.

No ice accretions at all here, thats the power of the raging warm nose only a few thousand feet up

Mountains are going to pick up a quarter inch of ice

Temp is still about 35. The warm nose should keep most of this rain most of the night.

Working on that coating of rain on the car top though

I know we are well out of the woods since we are well east of the pink boundary on the meso discussion. Leesburg and west man do I ever feel sorry for you guys - try not to fall hard on your tailbone when you pick up the newspaper in a few hours - I hear that's REALLY painful and debilitating

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