yoda Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nam has the sneaky snow event. 1-1.5" for most of us. I'm hugging it until a wetter model comes out. It seems like its along a line from CHO to DCA to BWI that has the best chance of an inch IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Cobb output for nam shows all rain at IAD on Monday. And an inch of snow with the midweek disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z GFS trying to sneak in some very light precip just before midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z GFS has some light icing before the change to rain ~11z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Again the gfs says sneaky snow is so sneaky that we won't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Again the gfs says sneaky snow is so sneaky that we won't see it. starting to smell a dead rat around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Again the gfs says sneaky snow is so sneaky that we won't see it.I just want a real storm to track. A threat where there is a legit chance of 6"+. Doesn't even have to be a good chance just at least a real storm. Something sub 1000mb tracking under us. This analyzing strung out crap is beyond annoying. What's the payoff? If we get really lucky an inch ??? No thanks ill punt until we have a shot at something worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I just want a real storm to track. A threat where there is a legit chance of 6"+. Doesn't even have to be a good chance just at least a real storm. Something sub 1000mb tracking under us. This analyzing strung out crap is beyond annoying. What's the payoff? If we get really lucky an inch ??? No thanks ill punt until we have a shot at something worth it. X2 not worth investing minutes of life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 In case anyone cares, the GGEM gives us sneaky snow/ice love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 In case anyone cares, the GGEM gives us sneaky snow/ice love I care, no more football to follow... Need to be crushed by a monster storm...gimme some hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 In case anyone cares, the GGEM gives us sneaky snow/ice love more than just sneaky EDIT: 2nd look, just sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 more than just sneaky EDIT: 2nd look, just sneaky so hard to tell with those Canadian maps looks more like .25" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'll settle this Canadian issue (I've created!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Although neither model gives us anything huge, the difference between the Canadian and GFS at 84-96 hours is laughable. It will be interesting to see which one the Euro most resembles in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 high 850mb RH over us at 96 hrs on Euro but 700mb looks dryish I guess a little qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Time to stick a fork in this one. At best there might be a coating IF a weak low can manage to sneak far enough north. Pretty epic waste of cold....looks like we get through this period with just the clipper(lame) and the biggest event(tomorrow) being rain. Looking forward to a warm up, and maybe we can salvage the final week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Time to stick a fork in this one. At best there might be a coating IF a weak low can manage to sneak far enough north. Pretty epic waste of cold....looks like we get through this period with just the clipper(lame) and the biggest event(tomorrow) being rain. Looking forward to a warm up, and maybe we can salvage the final week of Jan. Unless a miracle pops up we are going to lose two weeks in the middle of January. This system tomorrow is the type that should have produced at least some snow before a changeover if we just had a little better set up. It would have been the usually front end couple inches but it's not to be. Very disappointing to be this cold and not get better results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I've never seen this type of certainty before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Don't see anything significant happening in terms of Ice until you get into PA. 6-7 degree jump in temp in one hour, could approach 40 even in the Baltimore Burbs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I have ice in my local forecast as well. Maybe the ice will verify the "definite" forecast by falling for a few minutes. I sure some met here can explain the explicit verbiage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nam drops .18" qpf at bwi with a surface temp of 31. It warms later to a max of 35 for the day. Ughhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nam drops .18" qpf at bwi with a surface temp of 31. It warms later to a max of 35 for the day. Ughhhhhh 6z? Cobb output showed surface temps above freezing the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 6z? Cobb output showed surface temps above freezing the entire time. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Hrrrrrrrrrrr has n/w burbs only reaching mid 30's by 3 ish and quickly crashing to 26-28 already by 5-6 pm . Maybe a sign of that cad wedge setting up shop. I'm going to watch rap and hrrr trends . I actually hope its just plain rain. dry air causes evaporational cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Because it has been very cold I'd think the chances would be high for ice, even with marginal temps during the event, due to ground temps being below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12Z NAM definitely looks colder at the surface than its previous cycle. Whatever that's worth! Either way, no matter how much if any ice occurs, mid-30s to 40 and rain will be miserable. Reminds me of that first week in December. The NAM also looks a bit more enthusiastic for the "sneaky snow" event, if a few hundredths of an inch and a more expansive looking QPF field can be called enthusiastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 If anything, the rain washes away salt and this isn't a big soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 RUC-Backup is like super cold for tomorrow morning compared to every other model. Last run showed temps of 29-32 for the Balt/Wash metro at 9:00am Monday. Too bad every model is running too cold for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 looks like the GFS twins abandoned us for Tuesday/Wed. Shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 looks like the GFS twins abandoned us for Tuesday/Wed. Shocked. Lol, but you still have the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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