MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Jan isn't a particularly snowy month. I'm at 3.8. If I close the month @ 8" then I'm pretty happy. This week doesn't look to be the end of our Jan chances. Jan 25th-35th could be a good window. I'm pretty much sold on an event the 32nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 i didnt ask for a historic winter but 1 inch snowfalls are not exciting. I like all day snow events even if it amounts to only 6-8 Until we get some semblance of blocking, all day precip isn't in the cards unless some sort of freak boundary sets up for overrunning. We may be chasing something good before the month is out. GEFS looks pretty good starting around the 24th-25th. All we can do is watch and wait. And enjoy our 1-3" freak snow event on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Jan isn't a particularly snowy month.Agree if you say the same about Feb. Throughout all of history we are into the solid climo zone now.. Yeah maybe recent times have been second half of the month heavy but let's not start saying we usually only get snow in Feb or something. Too soon to say we finish with an unacceptable Jan anyway. I'd hope everyone's expectations are tempered by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Agree if you say the same about Feb. Throughout all of history we are into the solid climo zone now.. Yeah maybe recent times have been second half of the month heavy but let's not start saying we usually only get snow in Feb or something. Too soon to say we finish with an unacceptable Jan anyway. I'd hope everyone's expectations are tempered by now. I should have said not particularly a big storm month. Most years with ok Jan totals come with multiple events. Of course there have been big storms in Jan so getting one isn't ground breaking. So far this year hasn't really had a big storm pattern. Which has been frustrating. A good pattern doesn't guarantee anything but the lack of one has been frustrating. I'm going to ride the GEFS and say we aren't done for the month after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It would be nice to lay something on the ground at some point before the torch, though the torch might not be that torchy at the surface...50s for a couple days? That woul dbe my guess now. Looks like the negative EPO comes back but we still have a positive NAO so we still might teeter between above and below normal after our warm stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro ens mean has about .07 qpf for the sneaky snow. There's a lot of spread in evolution of the wed-fri period. At the very least there's decent support for some snow on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 This thread looks doomed to get the LOL2 tag applied to it. The ice threat looks to be warming every run, and if the gfs had any less support for the snow threat from its own ens, it would have none. If my choice is between getting 1/2" or nothing, IDC, I'll take either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z GFS is dang cold at the surface at BWI for both Monday and Wed. mornings http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI change the last 3 letters in the link for your station Wow wed... Low 20s... 0.2 qpf... Plenty of time to trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Got pretty warm today to forecast...i bet we hit 40 tomorrow...ice threat??? The plot thins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Got pretty warm today to forecast...i bet we hit 40 tomorrow...ice threat??? The plot thins Maybe for you. My forecast was 21, 20 was my high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Maybe for you. My forecast was 21, 20 was my high. coming your way...20 was my forecast got up to 26... don lemonade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I talk about this event for this region if y'all want to watch...If not, no worries! Update on the rest of your weekend weather, when will the rain arrive, and how cold? PLUS, could something wintry be brewing for **PORTIONS** of the SE next week? Watch the video for more details on YOUR forecast. Thanks for watching and please hit the invite button on my page to invite your Facebook friends, I really appreciate it! Have a great day. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 coming your way...20 was my forecast got up to 26... don lemonade Blame Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 This thread looks doomed to get the LOL2 tag applied to it. The ice threat looks to be warming every run, and if the gfs had any less support for the snow threat from its own ens, it would have none. If my choice is between getting 1/2" or nothing, IDC, I'll take either. GFS is retired already in my mind. Too bad the new guy isn't much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro does have a hefty coating tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Gfs has precip in by1am and freezing temps for n-w burbs though 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 We are not an ice town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nam is all rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Gfs looks bleh thru 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Hate to thnk the clipper will be the event of the winter. That can't happen can it? That was the only event that trended better and delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Meh, I'll take plain rain over ice. Last 2/5/14 with nearly a half inch of tree snapping ice was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS is retired already in my mind. Too bad the new guy isn't much better. Better hope it likes more than its daddy because Tues-Wed just went poof on the old man version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS and PGFS both dropped the sneaky snow. Maybe a little to the east but it's probably noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'm going to miss the traditional end-of-run HECS (see 18z) when the Para takes over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I am expecting temps above forecast tomorrow. Merely for the reason that they have already done so the past two days. That should set the tone for the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Dca might hit 50 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 If the nam 4k is off just by 1-2 degrees too warm, ice could be more of an issue for some areas then we think. Pretty uniform 32-33 through the wee hours from the fall line and west and even drops a degree to 32 for many by 7am. Precip through that period isn't insignificant with .3 in nova and .1 up to the md/pa line. I've already said I don't see this as much of an event for the majority but it's really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 NAM has a nice slug of precip arriving before 12z Monday, which would seemingly increase the ice threat, but the 2-m temps rise above freezing over most of the area by 10/11z. It does, however, now have a modest signal of the "sneaky snow" threat for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nam has the sneaky snow event. 1-1.5" for most of us. I'm hugging it until a wetter model comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nam has the sneaky snow event. 1-1.5" for most of us. I'm hugging it until a wetter model comes out. saw it there's been so much noise around that period, ya' know somethin's going to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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