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Jan 12-14 Minor Ice and Snow Disco/Obs


Bob Chill

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i didnt ask for a historic winter but 1 inch snowfalls are not exciting. I like all day snow events even if it amounts to only 6-8

Until we get some semblance of blocking, all day precip isn't in the cards unless some sort of freak boundary sets up for overrunning. We may be chasing something good before the month is out. GEFS looks pretty good starting around the 24th-25th. All we can do is watch and wait. And enjoy our 1-3" freak snow event on Wed.

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Jan isn't a particularly snowy month.

Agree if you say the same about Feb. Throughout all of history we are into the solid climo zone now.. Yeah maybe recent times have been second half of the month heavy but let's not start saying we usually only get snow in Feb or something. Too soon to say we finish with an unacceptable Jan anyway. I'd hope everyone's expectations are tempered by now.
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Agree if you say the same about Feb. Throughout all of history we are into the solid climo zone now.. Yeah maybe recent times have been second half of the month heavy but let's not start saying we usually only get snow in Feb or something. Too soon to say we finish with an unacceptable Jan anyway. I'd hope everyone's expectations are tempered by now.

I should have said not particularly a big storm month. Most years with ok Jan totals come with multiple events. Of course there have been big storms in Jan so getting one isn't ground breaking. So far this year hasn't really had a big storm pattern. Which has been frustrating. A good pattern doesn't guarantee anything but the lack of one has been frustrating. I'm going to ride the GEFS and say we aren't done for the month after this week.

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It would be nice to lay something on the ground at some point before the torch, though the torch might not be that torchy at the surface...50s for a couple days?

That woul dbe my guess now.  Looks like the negative EPO comes back but we still have a positive NAO so we still might teeter between above and below normal after our warm stretch. 

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I talk about this event for this region if y'all want to watch...If not, no worries!  Update on the rest of your weekend weather, when will the rain arrive, and how cold?  PLUS, could something wintry be brewing for **PORTIONS** of the SE next week?  Watch the video for more details on YOUR forecast.  Thanks for watching and please hit the invite button on my page to invite  your Facebook friends, I really appreciate it!  Have a great day.  -Chris  

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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This thread looks doomed to get the LOL2 tag applied to it.

The ice threat looks to be warming every run, and if the gfs had any less support for the snow threat from its own ens, it would have none.

If my choice is between getting 1/2" or nothing, IDC, I'll take either.

GFS is retired already in my mind. Too bad the new guy isn't much better.
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If the nam 4k is off just by 1-2 degrees too warm, ice could be more of an issue for some areas then we think. Pretty uniform 32-33 through the wee hours from the fall line and west and even drops a degree to 32 for many by 7am. Precip through that period isn't insignificant with .3 in nova and .1 up to the md/pa line.

I've already said I don't see this as much of an event for the majority but it's really close.

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