Doorman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's not a radar extrapolation setup. A weak coastal gets organized and some decent lift on the nw periphery of the "forecasted" circulation gets going. How far nw? Tricky. Radar "should" start looking good in the wee hours. To weenies like us it seems like magic as it happens. LMAO...I know what you mean...my logical brain says it will happen when the coastal develops, my other brain keeps noticing the Russian girl .. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 I think doorman forgot which building he works at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I think doorman forgot which building he works at LOL Is the Para GFS running tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Para is still comparatively dry. Oh man if it fails.. Hopefully the server redirect makes it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 LOL Is the Para GFS running tonight? yes...it literally gives DCA 0.01"...If we get shut out, PARA will have scored a coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I think doorman forgot which building he works at It's my night off..... should I bring your crew more images??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Good luck guys, hope you get dumped on, it's your winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 yes...it literally gives DCA 0.01"...If we get shut out, PARA will have scored a coup Or if the GFS/NAM wins, it is a POS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Canadian out in a few minutes then I am going to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Or if the GFS/NAM wins, it is a POS? models are judged on verification scores and other scoreable metrics...That's the problem...the PARA could end up really sucking with east coast snowstorms, but be a better overall model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Its my night off..... should I bring your crew more images??? Just good natured cross forum ribbing. Just post images that show us getting buried and we're good. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Or if the GFS/NAM wins, it is a POS? It would just be a NAM win. Old man GFS doesn't get to freeload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 models are judged on verification scores and other scoreable metrics...That's the problem...the PARA could end up really sucking with east coast snowstorms, but be a better overall model...So far it seems to have few fans. We should just partner with Europe or steal their code. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 So far it seems to have few fans. We should just partner with Europe or steal their code. that post will make it to NSA....if not the first time around, now that I've put it in bold print Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The scores are pretty much a wash between the ops GFS and para in the Northern Hemisphere - maybe a slight improvement for the para. The bigger gains are in the Southern Hemisphere. On a case-by-case basis, I would call it even. There were some nice "wins" for the para and some brutal "losses." Was hoping for better, given the huge amount of extra resources needed to run this puppy. So far it seems to have few fans. We should just partner with Europe or steal their code. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Just good natured cross forum ribbing. Just post images that show us getting buried and we're good. Lol Wish my crew would learn that skill BC http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GGEM has the 0.10" contour west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GGEM has the 0.10" contour west of DC Not bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GGEM has the 0.10" contour west of DC really? the black and white maps don't look so gracious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Put me down for 3-4" in Annapolis :-) Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 really? the black and white maps don't look so gracious you're right...my maps are hard to read...probably less than 0.1" for most of us...DCA looks close to 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 light rain and sleet starting within last 5 minutes. 28 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 RAP is finally catching on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Currently working in Henrico, VA and started sleeting moderately 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 light rain and sleet starting within last 5 minutes. 28 degrees. Freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Radar really blossoming SW of Spotsylvania/EZF, not sure what to make of it..... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 From Bob Ryan on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Freezing rain? Actually my grill was just wet at 28 degrees, but now it's frozen, but everything is 95% light sleet and what might be frozen drizzle. Nothing heavy yet, but the deck is crunchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 FWIW, UKIE has 4 to 5mm QPF for DCA... so 0.2 or so it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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