SabreAce33 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Wakefield says most models overdone and too far north except GFS.. Oh they love their GFS. They don't seem to want to change or update their advisories. Tough forecast here in SBY. P-type issues for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I wonder why LWX went with this... The heaviest precip isn't even in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I wonder why LWX went with this... Thats max potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Interesting map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Thats max potential I know, it's just weird how they pretty much show an I-95 storm. I wonder why they did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Thats max potential Maybe they are looking at the local models Yoda was talking about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I know, it's just weird how they pretty much show an I-95 storm. I wonder why they did that. Too far east and you have p-type issues, too far west its too dry. Sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Too far east and you have p-type issues, too far west its too dry. Sweet spot. Yeah, that sounds right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 15z SREFs has 0.1 line either just west of DCA or right over top of DCA... 0.25 line reaches PG county and EZF... 0.5 line looks like it touches extreme SE St. Mary's County, or might be just SE of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ok looking at many different forecasts called for tomorrow. Will be driving down 81 to Lynchburg in the morning. Looks like it is a non issue along 81. Anyone say any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I know, it's just weird how they pretty much show an I-95 storm. I wonder why they did that. Probably about where you'd get a deformation band if one set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 From the HPC: "THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN EXTEND MORE PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES,WHICH IS A BIAS OF BOTH PIECES OF GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT BEFIT THEOVERALL PATTERN, WHICH FAVORS SYSTEMS OF MINIMAL AMPLITUDE. PERTHE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION/PMDHMD, WE DO NOT PREFER THEIRSOLUTIONS." Da-yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Are they implying that the NAM typically overestimates the area of the precipitation shield or that it typically places the precipitation too far north? I wonder what they mean by overall pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 From the HPC: "THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN EXTEND MORE PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH IS A BIAS OF BOTH PIECES OF GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT BEFIT THE OVERALL PATTERN, WHICH FAVORS SYSTEMS OF MINIMAL AMPLITUDE. PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION/PMDHMD, WE DO NOT PREFER THEIR SOLUTIONS." Da-yum You're looking at it wrong. "THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN... FARTHER NORTH... WE... PREFER THEIR SOLUTIONS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 From the HPC: "THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN EXTEND MORE PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH IS A BIAS OF BOTH PIECES OF GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT BEFIT THE OVERALL PATTERN, WHICH FAVORS SYSTEMS OF MINIMAL AMPLITUDE. PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION/PMDHMD, WE DO NOT PREFER THEIR SOLUTIONS." Da-yum Hugging the GFS like there is no tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hugging the GFS like there is no tomorrow. Aren't they all, well the government that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFSs might be right. I expect the NAM to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 15z SREFs has 0.1 line either just west of DCA or right over top of DCA... 0.25 line reaches PG county and EZF... 0.5 line looks like it touches extreme SE St. Mary's County, or might be just SE of there The mean on the plumes is now 1.25" for DCA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The mean on the plumes is now 1.25" for DCA, Is that higher or lower compared to the 9z SREFs mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Is that higher or lower compared to the 9z SREFs mean? A slight bit lower, and the overall members are more tightly clustered. There is one that gives DC 5 inches. Riding that one, of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM appears to be on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Aren't they all, well the government that is Well, the GFS-P is about to be released. The party line internally may be to ride it all the way to the moon and back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM stays the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM gives 1.5-2" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm hoping the Nam scores the coup...yeah, mostly because it gives me the most snow, but partly because it'll blow everyone's mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Right now at 3pm is an interesting time in the evolution. I am on board for 2" in general DC area. The precipitable moisture lower layers is decent for a minor event, right now the water vapor movement is in a stall phase with a shift in last 3 hours from ene to ne. Light precip in far western NC, eastern TN and even extreme se KY is moving almost due north. I think the next 6 hours will be fun to monitor. It will be all snow if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 From the ever reliable twitter @jb_weather "AT THIS TIME WE ARE GOING TO REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES BUT WE ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THESE MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING." -NWS DC" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFSs might be right. I expect the NAM to bail. Model forecast bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm hoping the Nam scores the coup...yeah, mostly because it gives me the most snow, but partly because it'll blow everyone's mind. eh.. people are weird about the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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