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Jan 12-14 Minor Ice and Snow Disco/Obs


Bob Chill

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thanks all

it's moving toward the GFS, which is obviously what we want

 

looking back at past winters, I have all sorts of 0.5's and 0.75's...probably some like this...you back into some mangled, random -sn event....hopefully it happens and gets wetter...it's so hard to discern evolution from the globals when they just throw a dry blob over the whole region...

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Here's a quick article I wrote on the freezing rain threat. I'm with Matt, I don't see this being much of an event around the city except maybe a little on car tops or trash cans.  Farther west is trickier.  The cold ground further complicates the equation.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/10/freezing-rain-possible-for-monday-morning-commute/

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My guess is that the 2nd system is what it limiting the chances for the bigger coastal but I don't care. I'd rather have the Wed. morning system trend better. Temps won't be a problem and it's closer timewise.

Coastal never has looked good. Punt.
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Coastal never has looked good. Punt.

 

yes...it never has really worked...our best hope is that the dry blob wednesday gets wetter...of course I am a snow sucker and will take a 0.75"...I know other people don't care about minor stuff...but I am always desperate once I get a taste...let's hope for GFS solution so we can get a 1-2" event 

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yes...it never has really worked...our best hope is that the dry blob wednesday gets wetter...of course I am a snow sucker and will take a 0.75"...I know other people don't care about minor stuff...but I am always desperate once I get a taste...let's hope for GFS solution so we can get a 1-2" event

I'd think just about everyone would be totally happy with another .5-1" of snow that would stick instantly to everything. It's that kind of winter so far for just about everyone up and down the coast. Take what you can get and like it because want we all really want isn't on the table

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I haven't completely given up on Thursday as much depends on the northern stream so even though the models are suppressing it, I'm not sure it's a done deal though its certainly has a low probability of doing much.   I'll be hoping for my Wed dusting/ inch.  Beggars can't be choosy.

 

It would be nice to lay something on the ground at some point before the torch, though the torch might not be that torchy at the surface...50s for a couple days?

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I'd think just about everyone would be totally happy with another .5-1" of snow that would stick instantly to everything. It's that kind of winter so far for just about everyone up and down the coast. Take what you can get and like it because want we all really want isn't on the table

actually its unacceptable

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Here's a quick article I wrote on the freezing rain threat. I'm with Matt, I don't see this being much of an event around the city except maybe a little on car tops or trash cans.  Farther west is trickier.  The cold ground further complicates the equation.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/10/freezing-rain-possible-for-monday-morning-commute/

 

Nice article Wes. Pretty much my thoughts as well.

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These events tend to trend wetter, but a little wishcasting is mixing in...

Considering it kinda magically appeared in between what we thought would be 2 more significant systems, it's fits the sneaky snow category that can overperform as we close in. Overperform meaning wishcast your head off.

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it'd be nice to at least get an event or 2 before our historic February

Wrong thread for this post but the GEFS has been set on setting us up for better chances before we close the month. It's been showing the AO going negative around the 22nd for 4+ runs in a row. Prob take a few more days to get things right (assuming they go right) so that puts the last week of the month in play. Warm up looks to be a solid 5 days before it though. I plan on enjoying the easy weather and won't complain at all.

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.

We count November slush fest in our totals for the year? I don't think we are going to approach acceptable this month.

Jan isn't a particularly snowy month. I'm at 3.8. If I close the month @ 8" then I'm pretty happy. This week doesn't look to be the end of our Jan chances. Jan 25th-35th could be a good window.

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I gave up on the historic winter in late Dec. Time to figure out how to mangle and mess our way to respectable totals for the month.

i didnt ask for a historic winter but 1 inch snowfalls are not exciting. I like all day snow events even if it amounts to only 6-8

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