gymengineer Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z rgem backed off a good bit from 6z rgem12z.JPG Was this map through 18Z tomorrow or just 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GEM snowmap @ standard 10-1. Wes gets 1.5". Go Wes! gemsnow.JPG The GEM isn't handling the north side of the precip shield properly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This looks to be one case where I'll be better off at work in NE DC than home in Germantown. Hope DC can pull off an inch or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Was this map through 18Z tomorrow or just 12Z? 48 hour totals through 12z thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 48 hour totals through 12z thurs. Oops. I must have pulled the wrong panel. This looks better: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Oops. I must have pulled the wrong panel. This looks better: rgemcorrected.JPG first shade of green is 0.10, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Oops. I must have pulled the wrong panel. This looks better: rgemcorrected.JPG snow doesn't change tho.. seems the late stuff is quite light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 first shade of green is 0.10, correct? yeah it gets .2 t .15 to the southern corner of DC or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Any chance this turns out to be a 1/6/15 scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Oops. I must have pulled the wrong panel. This looks better: rgemcorrected.JPG Yeah, that's what I thought. I had been squinting really hard at the tiny color maps on the RGEM site itself, and it looked like the 0.1" line would make it west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Any chance this turns out to be a 1/6/15 scenario? maybe...or perhaps a 12/26/10 scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 maybe...or perhaps a 12/26/10 scenario always the optimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Oops. I must have pulled the wrong panel. This looks better: rgemcorrected.JPG Don't mean to post this in the wrong subforum, but mine is kinda dead. My WFO is not real excited about this event, but i get the impression that there could be some surprises for eastern shore and extreme south Jersey. Any explanation of these color maps would be appreciated. BTW, I've enjoyed the discussions in this subforum since ours has gone quiet. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 maybe...or perhaps a 12/26/10 scenarioJason just mentioned that too. Livin on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 RAP looks more like GFS. Can't go against GFS because honestly it has been the best model this year in terms of storm track and precip areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Don't mean to post this in the wrong subforum, but mine is kinda dead. My WFO is not real excited about this event, but i get the impression that there could be some surprises for eastern shore and extreme south Jersey. Any explanation of these color maps would be appreciated. BTW, I've enjoyed the discussions in this subforum since ours has gone quiet. Thanks. I usually snip from a bigger panel because I have to blow it up to big so the scale isn't there. The first green contour is .10, second is .15 and on up the ladder. Cape May looks like rain or freezing rain (maybe sleet) to me. 50-75 miles NW looks better as it would be more likely for snow. Cape may is above freezing @ 850 when the best precip falls (verbatim on the rgem model only). Not sure about other models. ETA: Cape may is well above freezing at the surface during best precip. Would be all rain verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 RAP looks more like GFS. Can't go against GFS because honestly it has been the best model this year in terms of storm track and precip areas. Didn't do so well with 1/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Didn't do so well with 1/6. And a known weakness is the nw periphery of coastals. It could easily be right but I have reasons to doubt it is based on previous events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I like the NAM in the short range. People like to rag on it, but once it gets inside 24-16 hours, it usually has a decent idea if not a little wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Didn't do so well with 1/6.It was generally too dry for that storm, but so was the Euro. Euro hasn't had a coup yet this winter, 2012-2013 the Euro destroyed other models, especially Hurricane Sandy and Noquester. Anyways don't expect anything more than a Virga storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It was generally too dry for that storm, but so was the Euro. Euro hasn't had a coup yet this winter, 2012-2013 the Euro destroyed other models, especially Hurricane Sandy and Noquester. Anyways don't expect anything more than a Virga storm here. Euro was .13 or something the night before, just about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 maybe...or perhaps a 12/26/10 scenario Ooooh, that one was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I usually snip from a bigger panel because I have to blow it up to big so the scale isn't there. The first green contour is .10, second is .15 and on up the ladder. Cape May looks like rain or freezing rain (maybe sleet) to me. 50-75 miles NW looks better as it would be more likely for snow. Cape may is above freezing @ 850 when the best precip falls (verbatim on the rgem model only). Not sure about other models. ETA: Cape may is well above freezing at the surface during best precip. Would be all rain verbatim. Thanks, Bob. We might actually be better than DC at this part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yes, I am pulling out all the stops The 09z LWX 4km WRF-ARW run has precip in here (DCA) around 3-4am... decent band is in the area 4-5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yes, I am pulling out all the stops The 09z LWX 4km WRF-ARW run has precip in here (DCA) around 3-4am... decent band is in the area 4-5am WRF had a good showing with the 1/6 storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 euro will probably shift east but give DC around 0.05"....it will be cold with immediate stickage, but probably need 0.08" to get an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yes, I am pulling out all the stops The 09z LWX 4km WRF-ARW run has precip in here (DCA) around 3-4am... decent band is in the area 4-5am 12z LWX 12km WRF-NMM also has a decent snow band paralleling I-95 from 10z to 14z or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The inverted trough feature keeps me mildly interested since those are tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The inverted trough feature keeps me mildly interested since those are tricky. I'm going with less than .5" of snow north of Baltimore. I think I'll probably get .2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 euro looks almost identical to 0z so far through 7am (precip starts around 6am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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