Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I wish I could get overly excited about the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 LWX updated morning disco AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC951 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEWENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG THECAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PREVAILS THROUGHSATURDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRES CENTERED ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER IS PRESSING INTOTHE MID ATLC BRINGING SUNNY SKIES TO THE MAJORITY OF THE FCSTAREA. HIGH XPCTD TO REACH THE M30S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.OUR EYES AND MINDS ARE ON THE SHORT WV OVR THE GULF STATES WHICHLOOKS TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINAS TNGT. THIS IN TURN COULD SPREADWINTRY PCPN OVR THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE TNGT/1ST HALFOF WED. AFTR THAT IT BECOMES A QUSTN OF P-TYPE...RATIOS...AND HOWMUCH. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT THE 12Z MDLS...AND MAY HV TO MAKE SOMEDECISIONS EARLY THIS AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm setting my bar at a light coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm setting my bar at a light coating. That sounds good. My bar is flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I just want to use my fancy new Bobcat with the giant brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM/EURO/GGEM/RGEM are reasonably in line with each other other than some QPF differences. GFS tickled DC at 6z. We'll see what it does. 1" would be nice. But I like little snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That map is ugly for me. But reasonable. My bar was just taken away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm in NYC so I'm ok if Ji gets fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 reminds me of 1/28 without the 20-25:1 ratios, plus should be warmer than 12 degrees..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM/EURO/GGEM/RGEM are reasonably in line with each other other than some QPF differences. GFS tickled DC at 6z. We'll see what it does. 1" would be nice. But I like little snows. I think 06z NAM was best (as in most snow) case scenario for us... but as others have said... 1" is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I think 06z NAM was best (as in most snow) case scenario for us... but as others have said... 1" is fine by me Euro moved like 100 miles west with the precip shield...I think we'll still see some fluctuations in shield and wetness as the day progresses..could shift good or bad...you and I are in a decent spot for 1" if you like 1" events...I do..should stick immediately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like 12z RGEM is 3-4mm for DCA? ~0.15 QPF looks like to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Euro moved like 100 miles west with the precip shield...I think we'll still see some fluctuations in shield and wetness as the day progresses..could shift good or bad...you and I are in a decent spot for 1" if you like 1" events...I do..should stick immediately Def agree... any accumulating snow is good snow... hope the GFS twins can come on board more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like 12z RGEM is 3-4mm for DCA? ~0.15 QPF looks like to my eyes I don't have 12z yet but 6z showed .10 well west of the city, .15 in the city, and .20 tickling the se corner of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z GFS refuses to come on board further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS shifted nw from 6z but it's a light qpf scraper for dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 enjoy whatever you 'southerners' get, I'm more or less out of the game for anything more than conversational flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z rgem backed off a good bit from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS shifted nw from 6z but it's a light qpf scraper for dca. It did come north a tad and now at least has DCA in snow albeit only 0.01 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 enjoy whatever you 'southerners' get, I'm more or less out of the game for anything more than conversational flakes You say that now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z rgem backed off a good bit from 6z rgem12z.JPG I'm out. Not that I was ever really in this, but I'm out. Southern MD looks good for a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If we squeak out an inch, IAD will be above normal on the year. Need over 2" to say the same for DCA/BWI. No, seasonal. IAD normally has 6.2" to date. They have 5.8". Everyone forgets how utterly pathetic our climo is through December. BWI averages .4" in NOV, 3" in DEC and 6.8" in JAN so, it has 2.8" so far this winter if you half JAN's average since tomorrow is the 14th of the month, climo would be 6.8" thru mid JAN bottom line, we need 4" to get to climo the way I figured it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 BWI averages .4" in NOV, 3" in DEC and 6.8" in JAN so, it has 2.8" so far this winter if you half JAN's average since tomorrow is the 14th of the month, climo would be 6.8" thru mid JAN bottom line, we need 4" to get to climo the way I figured it It's contained in the CLI's. For Baltimore as of this morning: Total: 2.8 Normal value: 5.4 Departure: -2.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It's contained in the CLI's. For Baltimore as of this morning: Total: 2.8 Normal value: 5.4 Departure: -2.6 CLI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Winter Storm Watch posted for Central NC. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=akq&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 CLI? Daily climate report: http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 reminds me of 1/28 without the 20-25:1 ratios, plus should be warmer than 12 degrees..lol ha was just saying the same.. tho mainly because it was the most recent SE of us event. i think we could do 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm in NYC so I'm ok if Ji gets fringed Traitor. Ji isn't even close to a fringe anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Daily climate report: http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx they must not average the days of the month no matter, we'll be at -7.4" at BWI by the end of the month the way things look now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Where is the para? not updating on wxbell or sv. GFS is such a worthless model it makes me embarrassed to be an American. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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