clueless Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Or beautiful? Anyway, I wish the GFS bros were on board but as long as the euro holds firm I'll feel decent about this. This would be a wonderful time for an amped euro run. GFS not on board is red flag. But who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 The only model not showing accum snow for dca is the GFS twins. NW periphery of a weak coastal is not a strong suit of the old GFS. Not sure about the new one. I don't think I've seen the rgem/4k nam combo completely blow it inside of 36 hours when there's decent wiggle room with the precip cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 9z SREF is around 0.15" for DC Is that up from 3z SREF? Believe 3z was right around 0.10" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The only model not showing accum snow for dca is the GFS twins. NW periphery of a weak coastal is not a strong suit of the old GFS. Not sure about the new one. I don't think I've seen the rgem/4k nam combo completely blow it inside of 36 hours when there's decent wiggle room with the precip cutoff. This is going to be another Jan 30, 2010 for you guys. Looks like it will miss SE and then move NW like a freight the last 36 hours. Maybe it won't be as much snow but you guys usually maximize situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Here's the RGEM output https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gem_reg_10km&lat=38.88642&lon=-77.01691&tz=-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 9z SREF is around 0.15" for DC Yeah, SREFS are juicier for eastern shore. Salisbury gets a mean of 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 9z SREF bumped up total QPF and Snow Total at EZF Mean: 3z: 0.23" QPF 1.9" of Snow 9z: 0.29" QPF 2.3" of Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah, mean snow at DCA went from .75" to 1.5". Now there are, it looks like 9 members above 1.5" with the max being almost 4". Nice moves on the plumes. Let's will this in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 4-5 am start time on 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 4-5 am start time on 12z NAM 12z NAM doesn't look as good as 06z... but 1-3 is still nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ends as sleet for some along 95 and east. The layer is around 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 back to the reality of the 14/15 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ends as sleet for some along 95 and east. The layer is around 850. If any of yall have NAM total QPF for EZF, id apprecaite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 back to the reality of the 14/15 winter If we squeak out an inch, IAD will be above normal on the year. Need over 2" to say the same for DCA/BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If any of yall have NAM total QPF for EZF, id apprecaite ~0.25 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If we squeak out an inch, IAD will be above normal on the year. Need over 2" to say the same for DCA/BWI. Calendar year? Not the winter season I assume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Calendar year? Not the winter season I assume... Winter season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Calendar year? Not the winter season I assume... No, seasonal. IAD normally has 6.2" to date. They have 5.8". Everyone forgets how utterly pathetic our climo is through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 No, seasonal. IAD normally has 6.2" to date. They have 5.8". Everyone forgets how utterly pathetic our climo is through December. That's what I've been wondering-- if tomorrow sends us over the winter-to-date climo, are people still going to be complaining about what an awful winter this is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 ~0.25 or so Thanks yoda.....I'm not sure what to make of this. On one hand, EZF missed out on the clipper last week and it would be awesome to get our first inch of snow before the pattern goes absolutely craptastic. On the other hand, part of me feels this threat is a mirage and Charlie Brown and Lucy are playing starring roles. Would like the GFS twins to jump on board at least somewhat at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 No, seasonal. IAD normally has 6.2" to date. They have 5.8". Everyone forgets how utterly pathetic our climo is through December. Wow...not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like DCA is 0.12 or so on HI-RES NAM... there is a thin stripe of 0.25 QPF from S PW off to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like DCA is 0.12 or so on HI-RES NAM... there is a thin stripe of 0.25 QPF from S PW off to the SW Do you have the map for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Do you have the map for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nasty cutoff just to the west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If the NAM is right, this looks like a good first snow for Southern MD/NE VA. Really nothing north of Baltimore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nasty cutoff just to the west of us Nasty is right. According to that map QPF totals are something like: ~0.25" at Fredericksburg ~0.07" at Culpeper and Nada at Warrenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 FWIW, 00z 5KM ARW has a 1-2 inch stripe between the BR and I-95 (includes BWI/DCA/IAD)... 00z 5KM NMM jackpots EZF with 3-5 per RaleighWx snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nasty cutoff just to the west of us IAD went NAMed to None'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nasty cutoff just to the west of us This is the one time I really want a north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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