yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 00z 5KM NMM 48 hr total QPF has measurable precip back out to HGR... IAD ~0.10, BWI/DCA probably 0.15 or so... C VA "jackpot" with 0.25" QPF down towards EZF... Raleigh snow maps show general 1-3" from DCA/IAD south.. EZF 2-4" 0z 5km ARW 48 hr total QPF has a stripe of 0.10-0.15 QPF including BWI/IAD/DCA to just east of CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Come onnnnnn north baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 03z SREF gets the 0.1 QPF line right to DCA... 0.25 line touches S MD (St. Mary's County) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 06z NAM keeps it going 3-5 inches for DCA/IAD/BWI NAM starts snow at 2 am or so for DCA per NAM radar reflectivity DC QPF is 0.43... very big change... hope RGEM follows suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 HI-RES NAM follows suit with the NAM... 2-3" for DCA and EZF DCA ~0.25 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 6z NAM a big hit (all things considered) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 8:37 AM, mitchnick said: 6z NAM a big hit (all things considered) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 8:37 AM, mitchnick said: 6z NAM a big hit (all things considered) HI-RES had a lil less QPF... but still is decent for some of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 8:40 AM, yoda said: HI-RES had a lil less QPF... but still is decent for some of us so we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 06z RGEM looks like ~0.20 QPF for DCA.... give or take a few hundreths -- rough estimate from the B & W maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 8:51 AM, yoda said: 06z RGEM looks like ~0.20 QPF for DCA.... give or take a few hundreths -- rough estimate from the B & W maps prolly take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 back to bed JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=06&fhr=99&field=ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM snow Wed. afternoon. I agree. An inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Atari 06z GFS says nope, nothing for you... XBOX GFS says no as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 to these untrained eyes, it doesn't look like the SREF gets any decent/measurable precip north of I66...or somewhere in that vicinity...but its close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ava called the NAM dramatic on the new this morning, but said it was worth keeping an eye on. I lold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 11:27 AM, BristowWX said: to these untrained eyes, it doesn't look like the SREF gets any decent/measurable precip north of I66...or somewhere in that vicinity...but its closeThe plumes show the mean at around .75 for DCA, but about half the members are over that.ETA: half the members are over 1" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 11:54 AM, lsukev5 said: The plumes show the mean at around .75 for DCA, but about half the members are over that. ETA: half the members are over 1" snow I just gave new meaning to word untrained...that sounds pretty good and thanks. was that snow or QPF with the .75? Snow I assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 12:00 PM, BristowWX said: I just gave new meaning to word untrained...that sounds pretty good and thanks. It's ok. I suck at this stuff. I have learned from everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 12:01 PM, lsukev5 said: It's ok. I suck at this stuff. I have learned from everyone else. it is encouraging with .75 to 1 inch of snow. good car topper for southern half of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I want to believe the NAM because of last weeks performance, but this seems like a situation where the modeled precip gets taken away at the last minute. Anyway, 6Z NAM Cobb for DCA shows 3.8" of snow and a few hundredths of PL. That's on .41 qpf. Temps are in the 20s. For BWI, it showed 4.6 of snow with a few hundredths of PL on .43 qpf. IAD got 4.9 on .41 qpf. KSBY gets the ultimate mixed bag. 1.7 of snow, .73 of PL and .10 of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I know the NAM is the drunk uncle, but it did this with the clipper. Started increasing amounts at the last minute then others followed. Big difference tho is that the GFS twins were on board by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 12:47 PM, stormtracker said: I know the NAM is the drunk uncle, but it did this with the clipper. Started increasing amounts at the last minute then others followed. Big difference tho is that the GFS twins were on board by this time. Coastal system the problem for the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Maybe we're just living in a NAM winter. On 1/13/2015 at 12:47 PM, stormtracker said: I know the NAM is the drunk uncle, but it did this with the clipper. Started increasing amounts at the last minute then others followed. Big difference tho is that the GFS twins were on board by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 12:51 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Coastal system the problem for the GFS? That's what I'm hoping for. If we could grab another 2 inches, I'd be closing in on 6 for the season which is ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 FWIW. The NAM is not alone. The 0Z CMC had snow in the area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 On 1/13/2015 at 12:52 PM, snowfan said: Maybe we're just living in a NAM winter. Now that would be scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 06z RGEM snow precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 9z SREF is around 0.15" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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