yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 UKIE is ~3mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Best winter since last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Between the clipper and being the best on today's storm it is on fire. Hugging the coldest and snowiest models pays off once every decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Sneakinest event of 2015 GGEM is an advisory level event. EDIT: It's actually NAMesque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GGEM is an advisory level event. EDIT: It's actually NAMesque S MD is almost in the blue QPF on the GGEM -- St. Mary's is .25 or so QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 GGEM is an advisory level event. EDIT: It's actually NAMesque Heh, are we doing this S or what? Collective wishcasting ftmfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Heh, are we doing this S or what? Collective wishcasting ftmfw Lets work our magic on the EURO which will be out in ~20 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GGEM is an advisory level event. EDIT: It's actually NAMesque more importantly it actually gets precip up above 40N and west to Garrett co....it's probably like 0.15" for DC, but the coverage is huge...not sure I buy it...euro will probably do its normal fringe job where we get 0.01" and we'll have no idea where we stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 more importantly it actually gets precip up above 40N and west to Garrett co....it's probably like 0.15" for DC, but the coverage is huge...not sure I buy it...euro will probably do its normal fringe job where we get 0.01" and we'll have no idea where we stand Nam/rgem/gem all say we get snow or frozen. Gfs twins shifted in our favor but still whiffed. NC loves the para/gfs shift though. Still 24-36 hours to continue trends. Euro on deck but we know any change will be subtle. If its in our favor then the plot thickens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 great point. The NAM precip type meteograms show that we could mix with sleet or freezing rain at times (if this event happens). The temps on the bottom show the 850 level going above 0 during Wed. morning, so several of the members which comprise the dominant precip type go to sleet or freezing rain. This is consistent with the % of frozen pcp (green line on 3rd set of traces) dropping low during that time. It's an interesting NAM if it were right. The soundings for DCA are interesting as the cloud top doesn't extend that far up so it's hard to know what type of frozen precipitation you'd get if the NAM were right. The cloud top may not be colder than -8 or -10C. Might be freezing rain or snow at DCA and just to the south might be freezing rain or sleet as there is a warm layer at NHK and even DCA is right near freezing with its warm layer. The surface temps are really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 more importantly it actually gets precip up above 40N and west to Garrett co....it's probably like 0.15" for DC, but the coverage is huge...not sure I buy it...euro will probably do its normal fringe job where we get 0.01" and we'll have no idea where we stand In no way do I trust the GGEM. It overdoes events (if there is one) > 24 hours out. Euro will will have .90 over Ocean City and we'll have high cirrus. Euro is a stingy mofo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nam/rgem/gem all say we get snow or frozen. Gfs twins shifted in our favor but still whiffed. NC loves the para/gfs shift though. Still 24-36 hours to continue trends. Euro on deck but we know any change will be subtle. If its in our favor then the plot thickens yeah...RDU under a winter storm watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 In no way do I trust the GGEM. It overdoes events (if there is one) > 24 hours out. Euro will will have .90 over Ocean City and we'll have high cirrus. Euro is a stingy mofo 12z euro scraped dca with .01-.02 with the edge basically at my yard. Any improvement from there is a + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 euro looks west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 euro way west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 euro is drier but matches the GGEM/RGEM/NAM idea...gets precip NW of HGR up to the PA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 euro is drier but matches the GGEM/RGEM/NAM idea...gets precip NW of HGR up to the PA line Sizeable shift nw wirh precip shield. Much more than I would have guessed. Time to start parsing how much instead of yes vs no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 So drier but better overall? Interesting trends.. drier than GGEM/RGEM/NAM, but way better than 12z run....same idea as those 3 models....at 12z it barely scraped DC...0z it throws precip up past Hagerstown...still only 0.05" for DCA....but major trend NW with the precip shield.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ah, thanks. Well, it's not all that juicy but this was a great set of runs all things considered. Hopefully we can will this thing to moisten euro is basically <1" for me and you between 6 am and 11 am....temps below freezing the whole time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 drier than GGEM/RGEM/NAM, but way better than 12z run....same idea as those 3 models....at 12z it barely scraped DC...0z it throws precip up past Hagerstown...still only 0.05" for DCA....but major trend NW with the precip shield.... .1 in st Mary's and .25 east tip of the northern neck. Considering 12z had .05 for the northern neck we can call this run a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 .1 in st Mary's and .25 east tip of the northern neck. Considering 12z had .05 for the northern neck we can call this run a victory. How much gets back to EZF on EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 .1 in st Mary's and .25 east tip of the northern neck. Considering 12z had .05 for the northern neck we can call this run a victory. Clock is running out..we need huge gains from the 12z Euro tomm. I actually thinks this leads some credibility toward the NAM (no, not the amounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 .1 in st Mary's and .25 east tip of the northern neck. Considering 12z had .05 for the northern neck we can call this run a victory. huge victory....when a model gives measurable precip to places 75 miles to my NW it makes me hopeful...Euro/NAM/Canadians say that after Wednesday I have more seasonal snow than I do now...and that is good enough for me at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 How much gets back to EZF on EURO? maybe 0.07"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Clock is running out..we need huge gains from the 12z Euro tomm. I actually thinks this leads some credibility toward the NAM (no, not the amounts). well yeah...it's now the GFS twins versus everyone else....time for xbox to slap its soon to be dead older brother one step closer to the grave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 maybe 0.07"? More than I expected, maybe we can finally get our first inch of snow for the season down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 How much gets back to EZF on EURO? Somewhere between .05-.1. Northern neck is a bullseye compared to areas west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 huge victory....when a model gives measurable precip to places 75 miles to my NW it makes me hopeful...Euro/NAM/Canadians say that after Wednesday I have more seasonal snow than I do now...and that is good enough for me at this range...Yea, it's always a nice feeling seeing shifts like this as we approach very short leads. Considering short range guidance, it's not unreasonable to say the euro is probably too dry. The precip shield change from 12z is more telling than verbatim qpf output.Eta: and another shot at accum snow with cold surface temps is another bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 we're actually in a bit better of a spot than 1/28-29....it's just with that one since it was like 12 degrees, we knew we were getting 20-25:1 high ratio dust....I don't think we can expect better than 11-12:1 here....so we need around 0.08" to get our inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yea, it's always a nice feeling seeing shifts like this as we approach very short leads. Considering short range guidance, it's not unreasonable to say the euro is probably too dry. The precip shield change from 12z is more telling than verbatim qpf output. Eta: and another shot at accum snow with cold surface temps is another bonus yeah...not even borderline...Euro is like 26-28 the whole event for immediate DC metro...immediate stickage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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