Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 ~0.15" for DCA.... OT for this thread but did you catch the vort pass on the 18z para Monday eve/tues morn? Total outlier but worth noting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 OT for this thread but did you catch the vort pass on the 18z para Monday eve/tues morn? Total outlier but worth noting no...was focused on our forthcoming 1/25/2000, but just saw...not bad...If one's expectations are low, we are going to have things to chase before the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 no...was focused on our forthcoming 1/25/2000, but just saw...not bad...If one's expectations are low, we are going to have things to chase before the 25thLol- Jan 25th may never happen again in today's model buffet. One of them will show it even if it's the nogaps. I just ran the euro h5 vort loop and it has a similar look up above but nothing at the surface. We might get teased again before we know it. I'll chase anything. It's fun regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Lol- Jan 25th may never happen again in today's model buffet. One of them will show it even if it's the nogaps. I just ran the euro h5 vort loop and it has a similar look up above but nothing at the surface. We might get teased again before we know it. I'll chase anything. It's fun regardless. same.... I never throw in the towel on cartoppers...I'm that sick....I want my 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Jb was calling for a blizzard this week. Any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Jb was calling for a blizzard this week. Any chance? yes...in Telluride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Just saw the NAM. We're laughing at it in public, but staying up for the gfs/gem/euro hoping they match the NAM. They won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 North trends are almost always doable we're just rarely well positioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I thought the RGEM was usually out by now... I don't see the 00z run out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 After the clipper, I'm riding the nam until the nam becomes the nam we all know and not love again. My ride should be over in less than 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 After the clipper, I'm riding the nam until the nam becomes the nam we all know and not love again. My ride should be over in less than 48 hours. NAM was wide right at the same range for 1/28-29....we actually willed that one up here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 North trends are almost always doable we're just rarely well positioned. It's an interesting NAM if it were right. The soundings for DCA are interesting as the cloud top doesn't extend that far up so it's hard to know what type of frozen precipitation you'd get if the NAM were right. The cloud top may not be colder than -8 or -10C. Might be freezing rain or snow at DCA and just to the south might be freezing rain or sleet as there is a warm layer at NHK and even DCA is right near freezing with its warm layer. The surface temps are really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM was wide right at the same range for 1/28-29....we actually willed that one up here.... You would think the meso's would have a better handle on such a subtle event than the globals. Not saying the shift in the nam is something to hang a hat on but we'll see how the nam and rgem compare to tonight's globals and see what makes the most sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It's an interesting NAM if it were right. The soundings for DCA are interesting as the cloud top doesn't extend that far up so it's hard to know what type of frozen precipitation you'd get if the NAM were right. The cloud top may not be colder than -8 or -10C. Might be freezing rain or snow at DCA and just to the south might be freezing rain or sleet as there is a warm layer at NHK and even DCA is right near freezing with its warm layer. The surface temps are really cold.Interesting. I mentioned it in PM update today but didn't even really touch precip type. Wouldn't be surprised to see it end up something. But would prob want friends asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Just saw the NAM. We're laughing at it in public, but staying up for the gfs/gem/euro hoping they match the NAM. They won't. I can't decide whether to be in or out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Interesting. I mentioned it in PM update today but didn't even really touch precip type. Wouldn't be surprised to see it end up something. But would prob want friends asap. Looks like the GFS still keeps it south but that's no surprise, I'd hang on the Euro except I won't be up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like the GFS still keeps it south but that's no surprise, I'd hang on the Euro except I won't be up for it. northern necked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I can't decide whether to be in or out. you're too far west....you could see a random snow shower though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I need exponential precip increases for the next 6 runs....get me up to a tenth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like the GFS still keeps it south but that's no surprise, I'd hang on the Euro except I won't be up for it. Para may show something... or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS came quite a bit west from 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Para is norther and wetter thru 33. Old GFS won't even be a real model in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Still a miss.. both have an inverted troughy thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Para is norther and wetter thru 33. Old GFS won't even be a real model in 48 hours. Still a miss.. both have an inverted troughy thing. What is the look for EZF, 26 snowflakes and a few freezing raindrops? On my phone and can't look things up at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Raleigh under wsw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Rgem close to 1" for dca. Precip makes it north of the md line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 After the clipper, I'm riding the nam until the nam becomes the nam we all know and not love again. My ride should be over in less than 48 hours. Between the clipper and being the best on today's storm it is on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Rgem close to 1" for dca. Precip makes it north of the md line If the Nam is right 3 times in a row Matt promises not to make fun of it for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Rgem close to 1" for dca. Precip makes it north of the md line Beginning of the trend. Tomorrow at 12z, GFS twins will have us in .25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Beginning of the trend. Tomorrow at 12z, GFS twins will have us in .25. Sneakinest event of 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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