87storms Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I am definitely not punting these next 2 weeks, some of our best climo. Storms come out of nowhere. i prefer that type of pattern. i'm kind of over this long drawn out cold/chilly weather. i'd rather us get into a pattern where it's comfortable unless it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I am definitely not punting these next 2 weeks, some of our best climo. Storms come out of nowhere. yes..once we hit the 15th - 20th, climo peaks for about 5 weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Black ice watch for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 UKmet and JMA have increased the amounts for Wednesday by a little bit; we'll see if it means anything. Nothing substantial, but maybe enough to backup a dusting or maybe a bit more? Euro should show itself in 30 min. UKIE is pretty decent if its all snow... looks like around an inch or so... too bad its on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Euro tickles DC proper with 0.01. Maybe if we look hard enough we'll see some flizzarding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 UKIE is pretty decent if its all snow... looks like around an inch or so... too bad its on its own This is strange--what are the models keying in on on Wednesday that would have them basically taking turns to show the same solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Euro tickles DC proper with 0.01. Maybe if we look hard enough we'll see some flizzarding Root for the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Root for the NAM... the NAM is a miss, though looks similar to euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 This is strange--what are the models keying in on on Wednesday that would have them basically taking turns to show the same solution? At this point almost all have caved and are trending away...I wouldn't count on much more than T - Cartopper...I don't think this is like 1/28-29 which kept trending in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Was not Jan 2010 a snoozefest until the 30th? I rest my case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Was not Jan 2010 a snoozefest until the 30th? I rest my case. It's a bad case...this at best is a 0.25" event...We just like to follow minor stuff here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 At this point almost all have caved and are trending away...I wouldn't count on much more than T - Cartopper...I don't think this is like 1/28-29 which kept trending in our favor I'm not expecting anything-- I just find it weird that each day, a different model is showing the 1" solution. GFS, then NAM, then GGEM, now the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm not expecting anything-- I just find it weird that each day, a different model is showing the 1" solution. GFS, then NAM, then GGEM, now the UK. It's been a bit weird...though the GFS twins have bailed for several runs in a row now, and the Euro/GGEM/NAM have trended worse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 At this point almost all have caved and are trending away...I wouldn't count on much more than T - Cartopper...I don't think this is like 1/28-29 which kept trending in our favor Yeah, too much consensus going in the wrong direction late in the game. I'm doubting even flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Was not Jan 2010 a snoozefest until the 30th? I rest my case. Yeah but Dec 2009 was a little better than Dec 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's a bad case...this at best is a 0.25" event...We just like to follow minor stuff here... I think he was trying to imply that we shouldn't be panicking about this winter yet because January 2010 was awful snow-wise until the Jan 30 event, and then of course we had the historic February. That said, it's not really an accurate match since we had already had a HECS at this point in 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I think he was trying to imply that we shouldn't be panicking about this winter yet because January 2010 was awful snow-wise until the Jan 30 event, and then of course we had the historic February. That said, it's not really an accurate match since we had already had a HECS at this point in 09-10. and a decent events on 12/5 and 1/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 NAM is now light ZR/Mix with temps in the mid 20s for DC and points south and east during the day on wednesday...this would actually be an interesting scenario...of course it is the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 NAM is now light ZR/Mix with temps in the mid 20s for DC and points south and east during the day on wednesday...this would actually be an interesting scenario...of course it is the NAM... Soundings are pretty close to snow... the 800-875 level is around -0.5C though Why does the NAM have snow accums for Wes on the Raleigh snow maps, but none on the instantweathermaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Someone needs to will that precip further north. So close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 if you squint, you'll see a .1 blob (that's snow, not qpf) in northern calvert and aa counties. Central/Lower ES and parts of SE Delaware have about an inch or so of snow. Soundings are pretty close to snow... the 800-875 level is around -0.5C though Why does the NAM have snow accums for Wes on the Raleigh snow maps, but none on the instantweathermaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS twins are still misses wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 lolNAM....almost an advisory criteria event with a mixed bag and temps in the low to mid 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 00z NAM makes it all the way north of DC with the precip Wednesday, but still very light. Still time. C'mon GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 lolNAM....almost an advisory criteria event with a mixed bag and temps in the low to mid 20s Beat me to it, ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Beat me to it, ha! It's not unusual to see some oscillations on the periphery.....the idea that we might get some light precip is not inconceivable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 lolNAM....almost an advisory criteria event with a mixed bag and temps in the low to mid 20sNam/gem vs euro/gfs. Rgem in between. Maybe 0z rgem will toss us a bone.Eta: forgot the euro had some pixie dust. Maybe the invisible sneaky snow becomes visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It's not unusual to see some oscillations on the periphery.....the idea that we might get some light precip is not inconceivable I love how DC almost loses the 850mb temp at 15z even though the 4km NAM shows DCA at 23 degrees at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nam/gem vs euro/gfs. Rgem in between. Maybe 0z rgem will toss us a bone. Eta: forgot the euro had some pixie dust. Maybe the invisible sneaky snow becomes visible ~0.15" for DCA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It would be nice to see the GFS twins throw us something....at least Atari....Atari usually throws a blanket of 0.01" back to Columbus Ohio in this scenario.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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