CT Rain Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah, a lot of times you can't get solid lead time on a downburst. Like near Springfield last year, that signature didn't really pop until it had already collapsed. Those would probably carry a higher false alarm rate than tornadoes already do. That said, I have seen offices west of here issue TORs for significant bow echoes moving into populated areas that have the potential to produce spin ups anywhere along the leading edge. I understand the mentality, but I also think that leads to more public confusion than there already is. Yeah and even when that signature popped up... meh. The only way to get lead time on that thing was to issue the SVR after BAF gusted to 48 knots. Doesn't help that the radar is sampling at like 6kft over Easthampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah and even when that signature popped up... meh. The only way to get lead time on that thing was to issue the SVR after BAF gusted to 48 knots. Doesn't help that the radar is sampling at like 6kft over Easthampton. I just did an event review for our office on the York, ME microburst. Same result. Meh signatures, and the only real clue that the storm was about to go to town was a 63 mph gust at PSM followed by the core pulsing up to 50 kft less than 10 minutes before arriving in York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 I just did an event review for our office on the York, ME microburst. Same result. Meh signatures, and the only real clue that the storm was about to go to town was a 63 mph gust at PSM followed by the core pulsing up to 50 kft less than 10 minutes before arriving in York. Yeah those things are really tough to warn on. I'm really not sure you can do much for them. Thankfully it happened in a pretty rural area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah those things are really tough to warn on. I'm really not sure you can do much for them. Thankfully it happened in a pretty rural area. Hey look at us, discussing convection. May 1st really is the start of severe season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 only 361 more days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 s Maybe we can get severe criteria changed to cocktail sized s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Maybe we can get severe criteria changed to cocktail sized s LOL. Hopefully we can get some good ones this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 4, 2015 Author Share Posted May 4, 2015 I actually think I can perhaps head out to the Plains next spring after spring semester. Living on campus next year I won't have to worry about rent, when I pull out my 457 money from the town in two months I'm going to prepay my cell phone bill for a year (maybe two) do the same for car taxes and insurance and pay of what I owe in taxes. This means when I work at school I'll have hardly any bills and expenses so I can save a ton of money and I just started doing side work for a friends dad and that will be good money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 LOL. Hopefully we can get some good ones this year. Let's hope so. Last year was a dreadfully boring season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Marginal risk for most of the area tomorrow: ...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST NY... ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING AND PRE-FRONTAL MIXING/DRYING...THE FRONT-PRECEDING AIR MASS SHOULD STEADILY WARM/DESTABILIZE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SUFFICIENT NEAR/PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. IF SUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...A VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD /EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50+ KT/ COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW FAST-MOVING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. EVEN WITH SOME LINGERING FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...SCENARIO APPEARS TO WARRANT AN INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL-CALIBER SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 giggity I will be keeping an eye to the sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Marginal risk for most of the area tomorrow: ...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST NY... ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING AND PRE-FRONTAL MIXING/DRYING...THE FRONT-PRECEDING AIR MASS SHOULD STEADILY WARM/DESTABILIZE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SUFFICIENT NEAR/PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. IF SUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...A VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD /EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50+ KT/ COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW FAST-MOVING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. EVEN WITH SOME LINGERING FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...SCENARIO APPEARS TO WARRANT AN INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL-CALIBER SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Meh tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Meh tomorrow. Even meh for any rain. May is not a severe wx month in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Even meh for any rain. May is not a severe wx month in SNE Certainly can be post 5/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Even meh for any rain. May is not a severe wx month in SNE But June 2nd is????? Severe is hard to come by regardless. Usually in May, the wind fields are stronger, which will support severe. These severe warnings in the summer are ridiculous.....mostly radar indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 But June 2nd is????? Severe is hard to come by regardless. Usually in May, the wind fields are stronger, which will support severe. These severe warnings in the summer are ridiculous.....mostly radar indicated. Well by the last week of May it's a little more likely you can get a rogue severe cell in SNE..but really gotta get into June as water warms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Well by the last week of May it's a little more likely you can get a rogue severe cell in SNE..but really gotta get into June as water warms all depends on the wind direction..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Nice cell south of Albany, let's see if it holds together as it reaches CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Nice cell south of Albany, let's see if it holds together as it reaches CT Boy that blowoff is like 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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