weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Do we actually get severe in May? I thought it was more like July. Not very often...typically moreso across PA, NY and into extreme western MA and CT. But the best time period is from about the second week of June through about the second week of July or so. After the second or even 3rd week of July activity begins to decline. Could be due to the fact that as we enter deep into the heart of summer not only is the STJ weakened but it's further north into Canada...this is when ME usually gets clobbered...late June through mid-to-late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 cant believe i missed this thread love seeing the post about how bad this winter is man did that change quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 cant believe i missed this thread love seeing the post about how bad this winter is man did that change quick I swear...winter sucks until this thread is made. it's like this thread opens the flood gates for winter to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm excited for convective season around here. Hoping we can get some good set-ups on some weekend days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 All the crap we give Wiz about this thread, but maybe there is something to the magical 5/1 date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Also congrats Memorial Day as the busiest period for SNE. I find the statistics interesting up here. Anecdotally we've always said the first big event is usually Memorial Day, and inevitably the Lakes Region always gets hammered near the 4th. Sure enough those match our busiest SVR and TOR periods pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 First TOR on average. There's the GYX July 4th fireworks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Awesome maps!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The CT River Valley in SNE averages about 9-10 Severe Thunderstorm watches per year, but that increases to 12-14 per year once you get into the mid-Hudson Valley. Tornado watches are about one on average per year NW of I-95 in SNE and two over toward the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Memorial Day 2009 was sweet south of Boston. Saw 2" hail in Duxbury, although just after storm passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 I wonder how active the spring/summer of 1935 was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This winter is noose inducing. Looking forward to some convection talk!! lol - how quickly some things change. Still, I am looking forward to convection season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 lol - how quickly some things change. Still, I am looking forward to convection season! Same...1) I hope I'm in a better mindset come spring. I've been a disaster this winter and 2) My hope is I will have a car by May..that's what I'm aiming for so then I can go out myself!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If you ever need a partner im down! lol would hope we would have better luck then Earl though Same...1) I hope I'm in a better mindset come spring. I've been a disaster this winter and 2) My hope is I will have a car by May..that's what I'm aiming for so then I can go out myself!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 If you ever need a partner im down! lol would hope we would have better luck then Earl though absolutely!!! Yes let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 pin this sucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 Only 48 days to go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Only 48 days to go!!! I could go for some thunder, none since October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2015 Author Share Posted March 15, 2015 I could go for some thunder, none since October I can't freaking wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 May 1st can't get here fast enough... --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 http://news.weathernationtv.com/2015/03/15/big-tornado-season-around-corner/ Although this says nothing about what we will have in our neck of the woods it is an interesting read. I personally do not believe that the this year will be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 http://news.weathernationtv.com/2015/03/15/big-tornado-season-around-corner/ Although this says nothing about what we will have in our neck of the woods it is an interesting read. I personally do not believe that the this year will be big. I put very little stock into what he says. Where's this phantom trough idea? The Euro weeklies don't have it. They show a fairly zonal regime by mid to late April. If anything, some modest height anomalies from the southern Plains to Appalachia. His best friend the CFS is fairly zonal mid-month and shows eastern troughiness re-establishing by April week 4. Nothing too favorable for a severe pattern change. Could there be a few April events like last year? Sure, but this pattern does not remotely come close to comparing to 2011. Better analogs are 2010 and 2014 where severe was a dud until the final week of April. Thankfully for us, severe doesn't begin ramping up until later in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Days since last tornado watch and warning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 This is for complete and utter muse and/or fantasy ... but from 336 to 384 hours on the operational, 00z GFS, that would be an awesome pattern from the OV-NE regions. You have a quasi-stationary baroclinic axis that has repositioned SW to NE from roughly IL-St. Law. Sea Way, with periodic waves of low pressure and mid level wind maxes zipping along it. The region from OH to central New England, albeit anomalous for April, would be getting late May DP, temps around 70 (sun permitting) and thunderstorms.. But again... 330+ hours on the GFS - all it does is reminds us that at least we are heading toward those sorts of potentials and not away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 This is for complete and utter muse and/or fantasy ... but from 336 to 384 hours on the operational, 00z GFS, that would be an awesome pattern from the OV-NE regions. You have a quasi-stationary baroclinic axis that has repositioned SW to NE from roughly IL-St. Law. Sea Way, with periodic waves of low pressure and mid level wind maxes zipping along it. The region from OH to central New England, albeit anomalous for April, would be getting late May DP, temps around 70 (sun permitting) and thunderstorms.. But again... 330+ hours on the GFS - all it does is reminds us that at least we are heading toward those sorts of potentials and not away. Even if fantasy, it's GREAT to start seeing these types of patterns modeled!!! Another indicator we are getting closer to severe wx season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 This is for complete and utter muse and/or fantasy ... but from 336 to 384 hours on the operational, 00z GFS, that would be an awesome pattern from the OV-NE regions. You have a quasi-stationary baroclinic axis that has repositioned SW to NE from roughly IL-St. Law. Sea Way, with periodic waves of low pressure and mid level wind maxes zipping along it. The region from OH to central New England, albeit anomalous for April, would be getting late May DP, temps around 70 (sun permitting) and thunderstorms.. But again... 330+ hours on the GFS - all it does is reminds us that at least we are heading toward those sorts of potentials and not away. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 We should start a poll. How many MRGL, SLGT and MOD risks for SNE this year. Anyone interested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 We should start a poll. How many MRGL, SLGT and MOD risks for SNE this year. Anyone interested? usually one of these gets thrown up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 usually one of these gets thrown upI'll whip one together when I get home. Also first dates for first MRGL and SLGT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 I'll whip one together when I get home. Also first dates for first MRGL and SLGT. Sounds good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.