PB GFI Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 UPTON ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONGTHIS FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVING S THEN E OF LONG ISLANDMONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW AND MIGHT CAUSETHE PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDINGMONDAY NIGHT BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT FROM W TO E. Full day of crud . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 A lot of what falls early will be drizzle and that will freeze and make conditions very bad. Lighter precip always accumulates a lot quicker. I bet some areas N&W get over 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Looks like the rains in KY and spreading north and east into PA were not well modeled. They were initially by some of the higher res models 2-3 days ago but they seem to have all been too far north with it and some even lost it on recent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 They were initially by some of the higher res models 2-3 days ago but they seem to have all been too far north with it and some even lost it on recent runs Good call on the DPs yesterday . There were some busts in the Ohio valley today where the FRZ line was S of originally forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 36 degrees here in southern Brooklyn. Don't see the temps dropping much overnight even with the dew point at 19 now. Not sure how much evap cooling there will be. Besides, even if we do cool to 32 or a little below when the precip begins, surfaces should be too warm for any ice to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 26 here currently...expecting a work from home day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 33 here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 36 degrees here in southern Brooklyn. Don't see the temps dropping much overnight even with the dew point at 19 now. Not sure how much evap cooling there will be. Besides, even if we do cool to 32 or a little below when the precip begins, surfaces should be too warm for any ice to form. We might start off as sleet but quickly change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 00z nam actually has a short period of snow on the back end of the system late tomorrow night and pretty much just some sleet turning quickly to rain, to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 As LongBeachSurfFreak said the wwa will likely be taken down for the coast. Our temps are not dropping if anything they've risen a degree in the last hour. With a sw wind and cloudy skies they have really have no chance of dropping!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 UPTON SEEING THIS . ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONGTHIS FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVING S THEN E OF LONG ISLANDMONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW AND MIGHT CAUSETHE PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The HRRR is getting progressively iceier and icear each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 As LongBeachSurfFreak said the wwa will likely be taken down for the coast. Our temps are not dropping if anything they've risen a degree in the last hour. With a sw wind and cloudy skies they have really have no chance of dropping!!!!!!! I don't post much here in the NYC forum, but I do read is a lot. I had to respond to this because even back here in almost central PA, my temperature is actually rising slightly this evening. My backyard station is up to 31 degrees at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 As LongBeachSurfFreak said the wwa will likely be taken down for the coast. Our temps are not dropping if anything they've risen a degree in the last hour. With a sw wind and cloudy skies they have really have no chance of dropping!!!!!!! Evaporational cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The HRRR keeps places like NYC and parts of LI below freezing through 9AM tomorrow, but warms places like DXR, OXC, MMK, HFD, BDL above freezing. I can't remember the last time DXR was above freezing with NYC below in situations like these, doesn't seem right. I don't think i've ever seen it in my life where Pittsfield MA is rain & 34 while KNYC is below freezing. I cant even think of a scenario where that would be possible. I don't buy that for a second. As for the current temp, there are various readings here between 34-28F oddly enough. But the dewpoint is below 20 which is encouraging. I think most of us start icy tomorrow as this low level cold might be hard to push out, especially with the snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Evaporational cooling! Ding ding. Dews even along the coast are currently in the low 20s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Not having the NJ temp maps from climate.rutgers.edu is really making my life difficult. Anyone have a good alternative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Dew point here is still 15 degrees with a surface temp of 34F. Some ice should def occur in this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The HRRR is getting progressively iceier and icear each run Easy to get "icier" when you have next to nothing to begin with lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Not having the NJ temp maps from climate.rutgers.edu is really making my life difficult. Anyone have a good alternative? try the COD links I hope you like them http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.raw.gif http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/ 0200Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The last two runs of the NAM shows that there will be a little snow at the back end as a seconds wave moves up the coast This needs to be watch to see how fast the cold surface air moves back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Easy to get "icier" when you have next to nothing to begin with lol Well that's because it's still a little out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 My temperature is no at 32 degrees. Was at 35 about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 is now at* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 27.8/18 near KSWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0032.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0750 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV...CNTRL/NRN VA...WRN MD...AND FARSRN PACONCERNING...FREEZING RAINVALID 120150Z - 120745ZSUMMARY...LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 03Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLYMONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY APPROACH .02 IN/HR.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SFC OBS AS OF 01Z SHOW VERY DRY AIR REMAINS INPLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WV...CNTRL/NRN VA...WRN MD...AND FAR SRN PA.00Z SOUNDINGS FROM RNK AND IAD ALSO DEPICT A DRY LAYER OF AIRBETWEEN THE SFC AND 850 MB ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT SFC HIGHPRESSURE/WEDGE NOW RETREATING EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A LARGEAREA OF LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS WV AND CNTRL/NRN VA ISASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFTING ATTENDANT TO A LOW-AMPLITUDESHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS PRECIPITATION WILLCONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WITH TEMPERATURESGENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...AND DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TOLOWER 20S...SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW32 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.RECENT REPORTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AIRTEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION ISBEGINNING TO FREEZE...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO COLD GROUNDTEMPERATURES. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS THE LIGHT RAINCONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE AIR TEMPERATURE SHOULDCONTINUE TO COOL TO THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE...WHICH IS BELOWFREEZING. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS MAY INITIALLY BE LIGHT/SHOWERYAS THE RESIDUAL DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ASADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE S/SW AND THECOLUMN SATURATES...FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD EVENTUALLYINCREASE...AND MAY APPROACH .02 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT...GLEASON/PETERS.. 01/12/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Doorman thanks for the links. It'll do until the NJ weathernet is back. Best replacement I've seen thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 RGEM also has the changeover at the end...its timing seems out to lunch, it thinks no precip reaches the area til 14Z, thats not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Ding ding. Dews even along the coast are currently in the low 20s... I respect the fact that you are a red tagged but do you really think ice will be an issue on the south shore? No way in hell it's 36 currently with a nice wind off the water. This isn't like Friday with super cold air sitting just above the surface at 950. Some sleet at the beginning sure. But does that warrant a WWA? Maybe the nws took some heat over Friday. They must be in cya mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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