rcad1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if the coast starts as pure rain.. with a sw wind the temperature isn't going to drop much at all tonight. Our temps in western Nassau are between 35-36 and now with the sun out we'll probably gain another degree or two. So I doubt we drop below 32-33 if that especially with a sw wind!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if the coast starts as pure rain.. with a sw wind the temperature isn't going to drop much at all tonight. Our temps in western Nassau are between 35-36 and now with the sun out we'll probably gain another degree or two. So I doubt we drop below 32-33 if that especially with a sw wind!!!!!!!NYC is at 33/10 currently, if they start with something like 32/28 (which is very possible) then they'll have a few hours of frozen precipitation before going over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I could see the city starting as ice. But I was more referring to long island where temps are now between 35-36 depending on location!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 38 degrees here in Edison. Going to be interesting to see how much evaporational cooling we'll do during the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Looks like the rains in KY and spreading north and east into PA were not well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if the coast starts as pure rain.. with a sw wind the temperature isn't going to drop much at all tonight. Our temps in western Nassau are between 35-36 and now with the sun out we'll probably gain another degree or two. So I doubt we drop below 32-33 if that especially with a sw wind!!!!!!! Temps will drop after sunset. We had perfect conditions to warm up today. I'm not expecting much more then some mangled flakes and some sleet then rain with no accumulation. Not our storm. And our little "snow pack" took a beating today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm actually very doubtful that we get anything other than rain with some sleet and flakes to start. All of the models seemed to have trended warmer and went from a coating to an inch of to nothing, for the most part. All things considered, this is a good thing because we weren't going to get much to begin with, and I feel that the risk of freezing rain has been reduced (of course a good thing). The last little event surprised us with the 1-2", but it was modeled well by the RGEM at least. This one seems to have no support for much more than primarily rain (with mixing and accumulations far NW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yeah im sure they'll drop after sunset im just not expecting them to drop that much especially with a ssw wind. I agree with you this definitely is not our storm I expect mostly rain. We have some snow left here so I guess that might help temps drop a litte. Im sure the south shore is worse in terms of the amount of snow left and I thought I saw that some places hit 38 along the south shore. My location is 34 now with a dew point of 22!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Friday's event was a totally different situation. There is no artic air for this storm friday was a clipper with temps in the mid 20's when the snow started in western Nassau. our temps this time are going be in the low 30's at best!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 A bit out of range still but the HRRR has almost all freezing rain and that's what I'm expecting out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nam has an inch of snow for nyc before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Snow alert out by the sanitation http://www.nyc.gov/html/dsny/html/home/home.shtml It doesn't seem like they have cancelled alternate side parking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 A bit out of range still but the HRRR has almost all freezing rain and that's what I'm expecting out here anything for my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 anything for my area?Same, I think If we had more moisture ice storm warnings would be flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Same, I think If we had more moisture ice storm warnings would be flying. All the other models have temps above freezing for most of the event near the coast/cities. Your area's different but I wouldn't expect Union county to get alot of freezing rain out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 All the other models have temps above freezing for most of the event near the coast/cities. Your area's different but I wouldn't expect Union county to get alot of freezing rain out of thisWell I wasn't really referring to the city, they hardly ever get ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I've gotten ice here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nam has an inch of snow for nyc before the changeover how? 850s above 32 before precip gets here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I expect to see the WWA dropped here during the evening forecast. Temps have stayed completely steady after sunset due to the onshore SW flow. As others said this isn't friday where there was enough arctic air around I overcome the onshore flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I expect to see the WWA dropped here during the evening forecast. Temps have stayed completely steady after sunset due to the onshore SW flow. As others said this isn't friday where there was enough arctic air around I overcome the onshore flow I really don't know why they were issued in the first place. Forecast calls for a trace of ice. I never understood why a WWA can't be issued for snow unless you're going to reach a certain amount but any amount of ice can warrant it. I strongly feel Friday's commute will have ended up being much worse for the majority of the area than tomorrow will be especially in the city, LI and the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I really don't know why they were issued in the first place. Forecast calls for a trace of ice. I never understood why a WWA can't be issued for snow unless you're going to reach a certain amount but any amount of ice can warrant it. I strongly feel Friday's commute will have ended up being much worse for the majority of the area than tomorrow will be especially in the city, LI and the coast.Because a trace of ice is a lot more dangerous than an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Because a trace of ice is a lot more dangerous than an inch of snow. Except it's not going to happen. You yourself said how rare ice is along the coast. We had a bunch in 94. I remember sliding down the street to the bus stop. Since then you can count the number of times on one hand. Maybe the hills of northern Nassau but that's about it along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 how? 850s above 32 before precip gets here? Ask the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The NWS raised its forecast temperature for tomorrow to 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Except it's not going to happen. You yourself said how rare ice is along the coast. We had a bunch in 94. I remember sliding down the street to the bus stop. Since then you can count the number of times on one hand. Maybe the hills of northern Nassau but that's about it along the coast. I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The HRRR continues to show all freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Ask the Nam It doesn't show an inch of snow unless u are using those dumb snowmaps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It doesn't show an inch of snow unless u are using those dumb snowmaps ? The high res NAM seems to show almost nothing for 90% of NJ/NYC (snow-wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The HRRR keeps places like NYC and parts of LI below freezing through 9AM tomorrow, but warms places like DXR, OXC, MMK, HFD, BDL above freezing. I can't remember the last time DXR was above freezing with NYC below in situations like these, doesn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The HRRR continues to show all freezing rain Its seeing these low DPs and some NW of EWR could get cold enough to where their BL will really have a hard time coming out of the hole tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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