easternsnowman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I still like the idea of some snow especially north and west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12Z NAM seems to delay the start time of the precip as it is surrging north west of us and doesn't arrive till after the morning rush Monday and anyone south of 78 looks to be mainly liquid http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011012&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 By hour 54 its raining all the way to 84 . Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Why are you guys melting down over the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 By hour 54 its raining all the way to 84 . Done What? You promised me snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Why are you guys melting down over the nam. we're 48 hrs out and trending the wrong way on all models. Warmth is going to win out for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It never looked like snow/all ice storm for NYC. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What? You promised me snow! NAM stuck a fork in ur eye. Better root for the gfs and euro. They work for u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Why are you guys melting down over the nam. I am not melting down just describing what this individual model run shows - the way things have been going this winter so far and with nothing to keep the cold air in place Monday until the new push of colder air arrives after the precip ends the coastal sections have the greatest chance of being mainly liquid ......also IMO there is a 50/50 chance that next week there is no snow for the coast at all and then the January thaw the following week which brings us close to the end of the month......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It never looked like snow/all ice storm for NYC. Period. the 6Z GFS looked like it - was mainly frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 we're 48 hrs out and trending the wrong way on all models. Warmth is going to win out for most I dont trust the Nam one bit anymore, it's failed so many times within its sweet spot the last few winters, especially since we're just barely within 48 hrs, however the way the profiles are set I believe it may be correct, I'm not sure what the 06gfs is showing with an all snow event for most lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 we're 48 hrs out and trending the wrong way on all models. Warmth is going to win out for most 48 hours out is alot for the models It never looked like snow/all ice storm for NYC. Period. Yes it did and it still can be. Just need a shift south with the cold air and the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 NAM stuck a fork in ur eye. Better root for the gfs and euro. They work for u. meh, bet they're warmer too this afternoon. Cold push is just as strong-bad trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It is what it is. I literally Lol'd at this, best OBS on this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I dont trust the Nam one bit anymore, it's failed so many times within its sweet spot the last few winters, especially since we're just barely within 48 hrs, however the way the profiles are set I believe it may be correct, I'm not sure what the 06gfs is showing with an all snow event for most lol Agree, but historically you see it picking up on low level cold by now if that were the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 the 6Z GFS looked like it - was mainly frozen Snow from NYC north changing to rain towards the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Agree, but historically you see it picking up on low level cold by now if that were the case. Right, that's why I'm leaning towards the nam being correct this time, although SnoW is correct 48hrs is a long time now a days for these models to correct whether good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It is not a big cities winter for snow, it's not anyone's winter for snow. Most places east of the mississippi (except lake effect) are well below seasonal averages.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I think you know what he meant - a snow storm. While we do have two months left - there is nothing to even get excited about in the next 10 days - bringing us to January 20th; Still expecting around 10" for the year and that may even be pushing it. We need a reshuffle of the pattern for Feb. Who knows, maybe we get it, but agree, next 10 days or so looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I really am amazed how people just give up. Check the RGM for Monday's "event". Then scope out the models for late week. People want to see snow on every model run from now until 2 weeks from now. it is not that easy! For you Debbie downers, we could be in the 40's 50's with no shot but we are definitely cold enough to make things interesting! I've followed weather for many years. It's quite clear the monday event is trending away from anything of note. The NAM with it's high resolution usually sees a colder solution by 48 hours...it doesnt and is going warmer and warmer each run-looks like yesterday's canadian run actually. the 12z RGEM just came out and it too looks like the NAM. Thursday event is still a bit far out so that's on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 How can you say what the late week storm will be when we didn't even get through Mon. You know that the models will change, right? Yes, of course I know the models will change - I don't just look at models to form my opinions though - and no one should... Let's let is play out - my call is on the table, what is yours? Monday - 90% rain - perhaps 10% frozen Thursday- OTS w/ rain showers affecting the coast (bulk of precip OTS - near miss) You have my call, happy to take a look at yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Some of you guys, are so spoiled. We literally just had a very cold week, and now your complaining on how the pattern isn't working out. Be happy we have some cold air to work with. I will be happy with many 1-3 snow events like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yes, of course I know the models will change - I don't just look at models to form my opinions though - and no one should... Let's let is play out - my call is on the table, what is yours? Monday - 90% rain - perhaps 10% frozen Thursday- OTS w/ rain showers affecting the coast (bulk of precip OTS - near miss) You have my call, happy to take a look at yours. If the high can stay put longer on Monday we will have a shot of mostly frozen precip but that's the wildcard. Now for Thursday, we need perfect timing. Yes it's a possible long shot since the tellies aren't favorable for us but with the pna rising, we might have enough for the area to see a storm and it looks like it will be cold enough. Next week looks cold if we do get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Unless something rapidly changes the mid-levels are going to torch on the SW winds initially. If you had robust secondary development you could flip the winds back around out of the northeast but that doesn't seem to be the case here. Whatever does develop stays fairly weak and offshore. On the other hand, that departing high pressure system isn't in a terrible spot for some CAD so the lower levels should stay pretty cold until Monday afternoon. Still think this is a mostly snow to ice job for the interior and snow to rain job for the coast with the main threat here being freezing rain. Models usually are too slow moving in WAA precipitation so someone could get a surprise front end dump similar to what occurred last week. As you can see here on the 12z 4k NAM some areas are still ice at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The problem is the new high doesn't press in time. Older runs had the fresh cold air coming in at the same time (which in hindsight rarely works out) You can see on the NAM that the high is over the lakes and there's LP north of Maine. That's not going to work for us on the model verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The problem is the new high doesn't press in time. Older runs had the fresh cold air coming in at the same time (which in hindsight rarely works out) You can see on the NAM that the high is over the lakes and there's LP north of Maine. That's not going to work for us on the model verbatim I never really saw this as a snow threat for most of this area with a positively tilted trough and weak secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS has the 850 line and freezing line right near the coast for most of the event until the low comes up near the area. That's when 850s and the freezing line goes northward. Everyone starts off as frozen precip on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS has the 850 line and freezing line right near the coast for most of the event until the low comes up near the area. That's when 850s and the freezing line goes northward. Everyone starts off as frozen precip on the GFS. Someone could get a quick 1-2" front end dump before the mid-levels torch. A fresh snowpack would help keep the surface colder though and increase the ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I never really saw this as a snow threat for most of this area with a positively tilted trough and weak secondary development. The problem is the weak secondary low. Previous runs when it was mostly frozen for the area didn't have the low near our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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