Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Better than plain rain!A significant and crippling ice storm is better than plain rain in what regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 A significant and crippling ice storm is better than plain rain in what regard? Depends on the severity of course, no one wants too much maybe up to a quarter inch is not too bad. Plain rain is just too boring especially in the winter...much rather have snow more than anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The Euro tends to usually run too warm on its surface temps so thats not a surprise,,,the hardest part of this event will be our temps to start off, we don't see WSW flow here too much during winter weather events, my experience is usually it does not help moderate things much outside of eastern LI since its a land component. You mean like this morning? From FOK east got to near or just over 40 on SSW-SW winds early this morning and dropped quickly back below freezing when the wind shifted more SW-WSW...even before the snow started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 On GFS if you're north of 80 around rt 84 and 81 it should be mostly snow That won't end up that way, this is an issue we rarely have but is common with overrunning storms in the southern US, screaming flow out of the SW at 800mb always ends with models underestimating temps by 1-3C, I don't think many places see snow from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but I was told that the cause of the latent heat release was due to friction. Very simply, latent heat exchange is the movement of heat in and out of water (in all of its forms) in the atmosphere as it freezes or melts. Frozen water (snow or ice) is heating up in order to melt. That heat comes out of the surrounding air. Liquid water that freezes is giving up some of it's heat. That is latent heat release. I actually still remember this from high school chemistry: It takes 1 calorie of energy (heat) per gram of water to raise the temperature of the water 1 degree C. But to actually change the phase of the water (i.e., freeze it or melt it) takes 80 calories of heat without changing the temperature. The same applies to changing the phase from liquid to gas (water vapor) or vice versa, except that takes in or releases even more heat (much more than 80 calories per gram). Going directly from solid to gas or vice versa results in the combined heat exchange from both phase changes. The implications in meteorology are ginormous (http://glossary.ametsoc.org/index.php?title=Special:AllPages/G) and pervasive so it is worth spending some time reflecting on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 You mean like this morning? From FOK east got to near or just over 40 on SSW-SW winds early this morning and dropped quickly back below freezing when the wind shifted more SW-WSW...even before the snow started. With less fetch over water we briefly made it to 33 here. I think part of the reason it did not torch more is that it was still super cold at 950 and that air was mixing down in the strong winds. Pretty decent snow event considering. I took a ride out to gilgo beach this morning and there was easily an inch on the beach even out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 That won't end up that way, this is an issue we rarely have but is common with overrunning storms in the southern US, screaming flow out of the SW at 800mb always ends with models underestimating temps by 1-3C, I don't think many places see snow from this Sometimes we get lucky with overunning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 With less fetch over water we briefly made it to 33 here. I think part of the reason it did not torch more is that it was still super cold at 950 and that air was mixing down in the strong winds. Pretty decent snow event considering. I took a ride out to gilgo beach this morning and there was easily an inch on the beach even out there I was looking for OES, but it didn't seem that there was anything more than low clouds and some snizzle from mesoscale stuff. Earlier yesterday you could see an NW - SE streamer pivoting way around getting closer to Montauk as the wind veered. It was also weakening as it veered. The beach must have been cool this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I was looking for OES, but it didn't seem that there was anything more than low clouds and some snizzle from mesoscale stuff. Earlier yesterday you could see an NW - SE streamer pivoting way around getting closer to Montauk as the wind veered. It was also weakening as it veered. The beach must have been cool this AM. The ocean is probably still around 4-5C so 850s would have needed to be at least -10C or so this morning just to generate OES, they were right around that but right at the 13 degree threshold often is not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Sometimes we get lucky with overunning event[/quoCan't base a forecast off hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 what is interesting about the 0Z NAM besides the possible frozen precip Monday is hour 84 where the precip is hanging back over the southeast while the cold HP's are getting into a favorable position to the north and west waiting for the next LP to come under and around them to turn the corner and pick up the remaining moisture...... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nav.html?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011000&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 what is interesting about the 0Z NAM besides the possible frozen precip Monday is hour 84 where the precip is hanging back over the southeast while the cold HP's are getting into a favorable position to the north and west waiting for the next LP to come under and around them to turn the corner and pick up the remaining moisture...... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nav.html?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011000&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 I literally just noticed that but its probably the typical NAM bias at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The NAM MOS warms the boundary layer after 16z near NYC above freezing but I don't know if I buy that with winds going from WSW to NNE and only 5-8 knots of wind...its roughly low 30s with DPs in the 20s when the precipitation starts, to me that would be an unrecoverable evaporative cooling episode with those sorts of winds and a fairly weak weather system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The NAM MOS warms the boundary layer after 16z near NYC above freezing but I don't know if I buy that with winds going from WSW to NNE and only 5-8 knots of wind...its roughly low 30s with DPs in the 20s when the precipitation starts, to me that would be an unrecoverable evaporative cooling episode with those sorts of winds and a fairly weak weather system. A big issue is we may be rallying away from the colder solution . The guidance has turned somewhat neg over the past 24 hours and being 3 days out we are going to need to start going in reverse. Its to close for comfort already and the only shot we have is if we can produce a little more confluence. But the last day hasn't shown that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 A big issue is we may be rallying away from the colder solution . The guidance has turned somewhat neg over the past 24 hours and being 3 days out we are going to need to start going in reverse. Its to close for comfort already and the only shot we have is if we can produce a little more confluence. But the last day hasn't shown that. What I also noticed is the low is trending more north and closer to the coast. That pumps up the heights in the east after a snowy/ icy start. GFS has the freezing line and 850 line right near NYC for the 1st part of the event but 850s warm up as the low gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What I also noticed is the low is trending more north and closer to the coast. That pumps up the heights in the east after a snowy/ icy start. GFS has the freezing line and 850 line right near NYC for the 1st part of the event but 850s warm up as the low gets closer. Havent seen soundings or mos data but by the looks of the maps, the 2m line stays right over the city(NY) for most of the event. That's more critical here instead of 850s unless you are hoping for snow. Philly warms nicely at the surface according to this....well, above 32 anyway: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 what is interesting about the 0Z NAM besides the possible frozen precip Monday is hour 84 where the precip is hanging back over the southeast while the cold HP's are getting into a favorable position to the north and west waiting for the next LP to come under and around them to turn the corner and pick up the remaining moisture...... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nav.html?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011000&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 Can the 84 hour NAM score a win? I doubt it but the setup looks sweet, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 0z Para is also warm. What once looked like a great overrunning event for our area turned for the worse. New England will do great with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Before I give up ..I want to see euro ..tonight and tomm ..if trend warm ..put a fork in it .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The GFS soundings are all frozen for NYC, I don't know why the para sucks so bad on temps. There is a massive dry layer below 800mb noticeable on model soundings leading into this event, there is tons of room for evaporative cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The GFS soundings are all frozen for NYC, I don't know why the para sucks so bad on temps. There is a massive dry layer below 800mb noticeable on model soundings leading into this event, there is tons of room for evaporative cooling. I've often heard that the PGFS has problems with BL temps, so that may be the reason for the apparent warmth. If that's the case I'm not sure why it's replacing the GFS soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The GFS soundings are all frozen for NYC, I don't know why the para sucks so bad on temps. There is a massive dry layer below 800mb noticeable on model soundings leading into this event, there is tons of room for evaporative cooling. All frozen? What's the highest temp NYC goes up to on the GFS? It looked warm to me based off the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I've often heard that the PGFS has problems with BL temps, so that may be the reason for the apparent warmth. If that's the case I'm not sure why it's replacing the GFS soon. The old GFS is usually too warm as well, at least in short term, the nam usually grasps low level cold better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 All frozen? What's the highest temp NYC goes up to on the GFS? It looked warm to me based off the maps. NYC is 30...the mos is also cold, it jumps from 33/25 at 12z to 38/27 at 18z but that makes no sense with a west wind veering northeast and as usual mos doesn't see evaporative cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 NYC is 30 Wow shocking, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The ocean is probably still around 4-5C so 850s would have needed to be at least -10C or so this morning just to generate OES, they were right around that but right at the 13 degree threshold often is not enough. I've always read that the dT threshold for OES, i.e. with salt water (as opposed to LES) is lower like -8 to -10c. I think it had something to do with the salt particles available for nucleation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The GFS soundings are all frozen for NYC, I don't know why the para sucks so bad on temps. There is a massive dry layer below 800mb noticeable on model soundings leading into this event, there is tons of room for evaporative cooling. I think you are going to end up being right about the lack of snow with this system. Here is a sounding from Hartford and although the BUFKIT algorithm reads it out as snow it's clearly a little too warm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Monday starting close to the morning rush hour on the 6Z GFS at Newark is basically all frozen except towards the end of the day - difficult to say how much of this is going to be freezing rain VS. other p types but it looks like at least an advisory event possibly winter storm warning event especially just inland because precip amounts are about 0.38 ( over 1/4 inch ice possible) according to this model run - have to remember this could end up being a dangerous ice storm because the ground surfaces will be frozen solid prior to the event since temps will have been well below freezing for days so even if the temps warm up to just above freezing towards the end of the event there will already be significant ice accumulations on all untreated surfaces with little chance of melting - now is the time to make sure you have plenty of ice melt - flashlights etc etc because temps turn much colder monday night and tuesday .......... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Lol, 06z gfs has it snowing on the entire Long Island. Also, I'm a little confused does this look bad for my area atm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Monday starting close to the morning rush hour on the 6Z GFS at Newark is basically all frozen except towards the end of the day - difficult to say how much of this is going to be freezing rain VS. other p types but it looks like at least an advisory event possibly winter storm warning event especially just inland because precip amounts are about 0.38 ( over 1/4 inch ice possible) according to this model run - have to remember this could end up being a dangerous ice storm because the ground surfaces will be frozen solid prior to the event since temps will have been well below freezing for days so even if the temps warm up to just above freezing towards the end of the event there will already be significant ice accumulations on all untreated surfaces with little chance of melting - now is the time to make sure you have plenty of ice melt - flashlights etc etc because temps turn much colder monday night and tuesday .......... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr That's all frozen at EWR . There's probably some snow in there those 850s are not warm. But that is def colder than yesterday. The European is warmer 33 at KNYC and EWR . Will be interesting to see if a little more confluence shows up today. 12z NAM says Thanks for playing . please try your luck next time. RAINER . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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