Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Most models now have some sortive winter weather on Monday...we will see if it is a cold rain, sleet/ice, or some snow... 12z nam seems to be mostly ice/sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The 12z GFS is an icey mess just away from the immediate coast. It's had that general signal for quite some time. Also the heavier precip shifted a bit north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 The 12z GFS is an icey mess just away from the immediate coast. It's had that general signal for quite some time. Also the heavier precip shifted a bit north this run. Verbatim a wintry mix for most of the tri-state on the GFS. Maybe 1-3" snow north of Rt.78 along with sleet and ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z PGFS is warmer and mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The trend aint your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The trend aint your friend What trend? GFS isnt away from a nice snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What trend? GFS isnt away from a nice snow event. Go back over last 4 GFS runs....bl is getting slightly wamer with each subsequent run. It is caving to the PGFS imo. That's the trend. Might be snow now but by 0Z if the trend continues then we could be looking st sleet/ice turning to plain rain. Semantics at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Verbatim a wintry mix for most of the tri-state on the GFS. Maybe 1-3" snow north of Rt.78 along with sleet and ice... Hour 75 is the critical hour and unfortunatly both 850 and 925mb temps are above freezing with the surface around 30F and in the 20's N&W. So that's more of a freezing rain profile than sleet because the cold air is very shallow. And you're talking 0.25"+ liquid having fallen already by that point. The generally light rain accumulates a lot faster as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What trend? GFS isnt away from a nice snow event. I would tend to disagree. The GFS isn't far away from a crippling ice storm for a large chunk of the area. The low level cold air is there but you really don't have anything to prevent the mid-levels from warming. The coastal takes too long to get going and then stays too far offshore to flip winds back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 I would tend to disagree. The GFS isn't far away from a crippling ice storm for a large chunk of the area. The low level cold air is there but you really don't have anything to prevent the mid-levels from warming. The coastal takes too long to get going and then stays too far offshore to flip winds back around. So close to a nice snow storm...if that coastal is either delayed a little longer...or cranks a little faster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So close to a nice snow storm...if that coastal is either delayed a little longer...or cranks a little faster... The minute you introduce WAA you're going to have a battleground at the mid-levels. I really don't see anything on the models currently that would limit precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ggem is really warm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ggem is really warm now There's your trend. Sucks but its real. Caving to the PGFS...who woulda thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 By the time it changes over the precip may be mostly over, there is no onshore component, its all WSW surface winds, that is not going to do the trick away from LI in this setup, this is about as grim a setup for NYC for ice I've seen in a pretty long time, we need this system to trend strong to try and force the BL above freezing because I can do without ice, if its not going to be snow I'd rather see sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ggem is really warm now Yeah the GGEM is pretty much safe that nobody except well NW has to worry about FZRA, I'd probably be willing to take that setup vs the possibility of getting .25-.50 of FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah the GGEM is pretty much safe that nobody except well NW has to worry about FZRA, I'd probably be willing to take that setup vs the possibility of getting .25-.50 of FZRA Certainly not a surprise if we see mostly rain from this. I don't like the setup and the timing is off. There's strong highs to the west but the initial high is retreating so the wind direction starts becoming unfavorable. Without any blocking I've often seen similar setups continue to trend north as we get closer and I think the same will happen this time meaning even warmer BL temps. The good news is that we wouldn't have to worry about FZRA so I would hope for milder temps to avoid that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Well, at least we got an inch of snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Certainly not a surprise if we see mostly rain from this. I don't like the setup and the timing is off. There's strong highs to the west but the initial high is retreating so the wind direction starts becoming unfavorable. Without any blocking I've often seen similar setups continue to trend north as we get closer and I think the same will happen this time meaning even warmer BL temps. The good news is that we wouldn't have to worry about FZRA so I would hope for milder temps to avoid that possibility. I think the timing of the precip arrival will determine the %'s of snow / ice/ rain any one location receives. Right now anyone north of 78 has a better then even chance of dealing with a prolonged frozen event IMO. The rest of the area is still a big question mark........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The UKMET is closer to the GFS at 72 than the GGEM, the Euro may come in somewhere between although wouldnt surprise me to see it be closer to the GFS, the trend all year has been weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The UKMET is closer to the GFS at 72 than the GGEM, the Euro may come in somewhere between although wouldnt surprise me to see it be closer to the GFS, the trend all year has been weaker. Is this storm an ice threat, or is it unlikely for this storm to produce significant amounts of ice for the area? In other words, is it an ice or rain-maker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The main problem here is that we aren't getting a -AO to coincide with the -EPO like we did last January. The strong +AO pulse leaves just enough of a SE Ridge in place to favor the interior for frozen potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is this storm an ice threat, or is it unlikely for this storm to produce significant amounts of ice for the area? In other words, is it an ice or rain-maker? I think SnowGooses concerns about an ice storm are spot on. You have a pretty significant setup between the WAA and the departing high pressure. And at least at the moment precip should be on the lighter side which would accumulate more efficiantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I think SnowGooses concerns about an ice storm are spot on. You have a pretty significant setup between the WAA and the departing high pressure. And at least at the moment precip should be on the lighter side which would accumulate more efficiantly.You are making a good point that is lost on many. In a freezing rain setup lighter precip will do more damage than heavier rain which will fall to the ground, where it can be treated, more than collect on trees, wires, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 You are making a good point that is lost on many. In a freezing rain setup lighter precip will do more damage than heavier rain which will fall to the ground, where it can be treated, more than collect on trees, wires, etc. Plus heavier rates causes friction in the air which releases heat and can help to raise temps a degree or two, and sometimes that's the difference between a few problems and major problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Plus heavier rates causes friction in the air which releases heat and can help to raise temps a degree or two, and sometimes that's the difference between a few problems and major problems. ??? Heavier rates cause more latent heat release from freezing rain and can cause ground temps to nudge above freezing. It's not from friction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ??? Heavier rates cause more latent heat release from freezing rain and can cause ground temps to nudge above freezing. It's not from friction. Correct me if I'm wrong but I was told that the cause of the latent heat release was due to friction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The 12z ECMWF starts the coast as rain and the far interior as snow with a narrow band of ice/sleet in between. Then the surface cools some but the mid-levels stay fairly warm. It would be a rain to ZR/IP for the immediate coast and just inland and mostly snow for the Poconos, NW NJ and most of the LHV with a battleground extending from about the DE Water Gap up through NE NJ and perhaps even the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 The 12z ECMWF starts the coast as rain and the far interior as snow with a narrow band of ice/sleet in between. Then the surface cools some but the mid-levels stay fairly warm. It would be a rain to ZR/IP for the immediate coast and just inland and mostly snow for the Poconos, NW NJ and most of the LHV with a battleground extending from about the DE Water Gap up through NE NJ and perhaps even the city. Sounds same as GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but I was told that the cause of the latent heat release was due to friction. jm is right, ZR is a self-limiting process due to the latent heat release. This is a good module on the topic: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/norlat/frz_melt/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The 12z ECMWF starts the coast as rain and the far interior as snow with a narrow band of ice/sleet in between. Then the surface cools some but the mid-levels stay fairly warm. It would be a rain to ZR/IP for the immediate coast and just inland and mostly snow for the Poconos, NW NJ and most of the LHV with a battleground extending from about the DE Water Gap up through NE NJ and perhaps even the city. Good and accurate description. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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