powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think you'll do okay, perhaps 2-4". Due to orographics, I think this may be a nice little advisory level event for these parts as the meso models are picking up on this signal. While it may be a little overdone, the 4km NAM shows this potential well. I really like SVT and your area to MPM for the jackpot. If I were MPM I'd be pretty excited for at least a nice snowy day. I'm liking what I'm seeing up here too, with a slight nod to the southern orographics of Southern VT on a SW flow into that higher terrain and the northern Berkshires for jackpot. But I'm thinking we could do 3"+ advisory amounts up here...maybe even low end warning but like only at the very peaks and down the Spine to Greylock in Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Thats a great tip, see that's an awesome post and helps me in the future....better than just PF never learns it magically snows further NW every storm haha. I didn't go to school for met, so the background equations and mid-level stuff to me is more vague, and I need to visually see it...if I see -15 to -20 micro bars stalling over SVT to CNH, I'm not as excited, even if the H7 track looks somewhat favorable. But knowing why that happens is great to look for in future systems. This storm though it's been pretty easy to spot the chance for an advisory snowfall vs just a D-2". Don't forget everything is tilted in the atmosphere too. So that lift at 700mb exists further up like Will said as you move NW. I feel like the 600 and 500 layers get overlooked especially in storms that aren't particularly cold. The cape had an event in 2013 where the lift was near 500 and they got smoked with a quick 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That was a cute run for S NH from the Canadian suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I really like SVT and your area to MPM for the jackpot. If I were MPM I'd be pretty excited for at least a nice snowy day. I'm liking what I'm seeing up here too, with a slight nod to the southern orographics of Southern VT on a SW flow into that higher terrain and the northern Berkshires for jackpot. But I'm thinking we could do 3"+ advisory amounts up here...maybe even low end warning but like only at the very peaks and down the Spine to Greylock in Mass. Yeah, maybe 8" up at Stratton and Mt. Snow? The plot I posted puts out nearly 10" for there, but likely a little overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I will say if the size of the dendrites coming out of the sky right now is any indication, tomorrow could get sneaky good. This is pure massive 30:1 ratio dendrites falling right now...its just -SN to flurries (probably 2-3sm vis at the mountain, and 5-7sm down in town), but the flakes are like things you'd think would come out of a down pillow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That was a cute run for S NH from the Canadian suite. Yeah thats solid Advisory snow for you now...definitely got rid of that CAD mid-level dry air pocket that was around yesterday on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yeah thats solid Advisory snow for you now...definitely got rid of that CAD mid-level dry air pocket that was around yesterday on the models. Pretty hideous for 90% of SNE. Is there a general threshold for advisory snow? I know they tend to issue those much more subjectively than they do warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Is there a general threshold for advisory snow? I know they tend to issue those much more subjectively than they do warnings. Criteria is technically 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Criteria is technically 4". Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Pretty hideous for 90% of SNE. Is there a general threshold for advisory snow? I know they tend to issue those much more subjectively than they do warnings. Most spots its 3" or greater. Edit I just saw Nittany posted 4".... I thought it was a 3" average or higher? If so, then widespread 4" maybe harder to get to. Edit number 2... so its 3" in Mass/CT/RI... but 4" in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Most spots its 3" or greater. Edit I just saw Nittany posted 4".... I thought it was a 3" average or higher? If so, then widespread 4" maybe harder to get to. Edit number 2... so its 3" in Mass/CT/RI... but 4" in NH. Thanks. I doubt we'll see much of that down here. Perhaps a gratuitous one for western Hampshire/Franklin/northern ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm going 3-5" for most of the Berkshires tomorrow, with a spot 6" possible at 2K+ from Peru on up toward Woodford, Mt. Snow, and Stratton. I expect a bit less south of the Pike with 2-3" for that area in South Berkshire County as some freezing rain and sleet will likely mix in. Thanks to SW flow near the surface, I expect the highest totals to be on the west slope and Taconics. Seems very palusible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro is pretty stubborn with the interior cold at the sfc...N of pike may pull off 2-3"...more confident Rt 2 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro is pretty stubborn with the interior cold at the sfc...N of pike may pull off 2-3"...more confident Rt 2 north. Yeah I felt even I might end up net gain on the euro with a pretty big cold push much earlier vs other guidance and a less robust push north of the warming aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Jerry where in the BOS metro are you exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Jerry where in the BOS metro are you exactly? Brookline. Right along the pike more or less...lol. I frequently go over the pike on various walks around town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Brookline. Right along the pike more or less...lol. I frequently go over the pike on various walks around town.Gotcha, I'm just south of you then, right on the border of Roxbury Crossing and BOS proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Updated BOX forecast introduces IP/ZR into GC. Tonight: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the lower 20s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent.Monday: Snow and sleet in the morning...then snow...sleet and freezing rain in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs around 30. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 17.0/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro was the warmest yet. I don't see much of anything near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro was the warmest yet. I don't see much of anything near BOS.Jesus, that's pathetic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Jesus, that's pathetic lol It's warm at 925 all the way to the NH border when you get east of the CT river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Seems like some ice could be an issue. I don't see temps getting warm, esp places like ORH, Nctrl MA, maybe even nrn CT for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro is pretty stubborn with the interior cold at the sfc...N of pike may pull off 2-3"...more confident Rt 2 north.Def a nice trend ESP at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm confused. Will says a couple of inches n of the pike, Scooter says toasty to NH border....What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Overall, potentially lining up to be added on the slop garbage storm list of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm confused. Will says a couple of inches n of the pike, Scooter says toasty to NH border....What gives? At 850 it's cool enough, but seems like there is a warm layer at 925. I think near the NH border is still good for maybe 1-2 or so..the Pike area could be more ZR or IP perhaps. 925mb is +2 near the pike. I think the question is more rt 2 and NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I mean I could see C-1" prior to any change and then the same again after the change over, Ray. Of course your area is right on the line so it could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Unbelievable. I can't even get a simple 1-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Unbelievable. I can't even get a simple 1-3" event. Well I just said you might..lol. I can't see a sounding..but just experience tells me 925 may ruin the party for some. If it's off by a degree or the layer is thin..then all bets are off. We'll see how the other models look at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Unbelievable. I can't even get a simple 1-3" event.We'll see what hires and modeling does in the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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