moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Even those areas are pretty meh But this is no surprise. This overrunning was never expected to before than C-3 at best. Top 5 event of the winter--maybe a top 3 if we're lucky. 1-2 in CT ..Starts as snow..then a good deal of zr and then it ends as snow..there's another little wave of precip tomorrow night for areas to your SE that will flip it back to snow There's not a whole lot of qpf to begin with. The snow rates will be meager, the snow growth doesn't look to be great. I'm not sure what quantifies "a good deal" of zr, but I don't think it would be more than a trace. End of the day, you can likely add an inch to your seasonal total and I'll add 2-3". Pop the bubbly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I say if you enjoy the 2-3 otg and 1-2 " events the good for you, let's not ruin it for you, but don't let it blind your objectivity same goes for the other side . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Just looking at some of the latest model data and I really don't expect much snow at all here in CT... maybe a coating to an inch before we switch over to freezing rain/rain? Even the ZR threat looks a little odd. While we know the valley likes to lock in the cold... winds through 18z are out of the SW. The cold may get scoured out pretty quickly before the cold tuck begins as the weak low forms to our south. I wouldn't be surprised if BDL/HFD get to 33 or 34 and just sort of rot there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Just looking at some of the latest model data and I really don't expect much snow at all here in CT... maybe a coating to an inch before we switch over to freezing rain/rain? Even the ZR threat looks a little odd. While we know the valley likes to lock in the cold... winds through 18z are out of the SW. The cold may get scoured out pretty quickly before the cold tuck begins as the weak low forms to our south. I wouldn't be surprised if BDL/HFD get to 33 or 34 and just sort of rot there. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Im hoping we have some kind of frozen threw the whole event but it will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It's gonna be a close call for 1-3" for that pike Rt 2 region...N of rt 2 looks fine. Not a whole lot of qpf with this to begin with. The warm layer is kind of funky looking as you get that far north...this skinny region between about 850 and 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 So much for a statewide advisory event in CT. I didn't think we would head into MLK weekend without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think tomorrow could be an over-performer up here...I'm seeing increased support for over 0.25" of liquid (including the 06z high resGFS, para GFS had .4", GGEM .3", and now the 12z NAM) in north/central to NE VT. The SREFS are useless but their mean had 0.25-.5" too. Even tthe 9z ARF on ewall had over 1/2" of liquid in 24 hours in NE VT. Generally the profile is getting more moist and there seems to be some better forcing lingering over the area...2-4" may be a good bet right now to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z NAM is a toaster bath for SNE if you like snows. Razor thin for the Berks over to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It's gonna be a close call for 1-3" for that pike Rt 2 region...N of rt 2 looks fine. Not a whole lot of qpf with this to begin with. The warm layer is kind of funky looking as you get that far north...this skinny region between about 850 and 925. any thoughts on the ice potential for the pike to rt2 region? Maybe a quick .1" before rotting around 31-32? It seems like a 'self-destructive' process without a cold / dry air feed into the low lvls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z NAM is a toaster bath for SNE if you like snows. Razor thin for the Berks over to ORH. even for ORH this has the look of all rain / freezing rain from 15z to 0z if you took the 12z NAM solution verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 even for ORH this has the look of all rain / freezing rain from 15z to 0z if you took the 12z NAM solution verbatim. It may be underestimating how long the cold holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think tomorrow could be an over-performer up here...I'm seeing increased support for over 0.25" of liquid (including the 06z high resGFS, para GFS had .4", GGEM .3", and now the 12z NAM) in north/central to NE VT. The SREFS are useless but their mean had 0.25-.5" too. Even tthe 9z ARF on ewall had over 1/2" of liquid in 24 hours in NE VT. Generally the profile is getting more moist and there seems to be some better forcing lingering over the area...2-4" may be a good bet right now to start. yea RGEM is very stout, even warning level for the Spine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 yea RGEM is very stout, even warning level for the Spine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 At least the SSTs are cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It may be underestimating how long the cold holds. Yeah def is at the surface .. 925-850 mb Im not as sure but still could be slightly overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The nam is tempting me to get outta the area tomorrow, the one thing I loathe is 34F rain and that is exactly what the HI-RES nam gives me. Maybe a crotched mountain day trip tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Any thoughts on southern, nh? coating? 1-2"??? Thanks ahead of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 ITs gonna be close for that pike/Rt 2 region...well "close" in the sense of 2-3" vs coating. We aren't talking high qpf. And yes, I agree with the shocking conclusion that powderfreak came to that it will be an over-performer up there with some ML frontogenesis...now if we could just convince you to apply that to coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Will you think an inch pike south then zr?ending as a period of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Will you think an inch pike south then zr?ending as a period of snow? I doubt an inch on the front there...the qpf looks pretty paltry early on. Prob more like a coating...then maybe another coating on the end. The ice in the middle is something I'm pretty uncertain on. I could see the LL cold hanging tougher than models show, but at the same time, we have weak flow from the SW, so who knows. Regardless, you'll keep the thin snowpack intact...there's no way it will warm up enough to melt that. This whole thing is a fairly low QPF event anyway...so outside the picnic tables where orographics and some ML fronto will help...nobody is going to get more than a few inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 ITs gonna be close for that pike/Rt 2 region...well "close" in the sense of 2-3" vs coating. We aren't talking high qpf. And yes, I agree with the shocking conclusion that powderfreak came to that it will be an over-performer up there with some ML frontogenesis...now if we could just convince you to apply that to coastal storms. The thing here is the lift and QPF has been steadily increasing. There's a direct signal there that's easy for my self-trained eye to catch. Omega blob over northern VT is easy to pick up but that's often not present in coastal systems...otherwise the QPF would be higher on the models in those situations. You guys in coastals want me to bank on high ratio banding that no matter how many times it happens, if I can't see it on the models other than a H7 low track, it's hard for me to go all in on a forecast. I know the QPF queen moniker but it's more than that as I need to see the omega on the models, which the models usually correlate with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The thing here is the lift and QPF has been steadily increasing. There's a direct signal there that's easy for my self-trained eye to catch. Omega blob over northern VT is easy to pick up but that's often not present in coastal systems...otherwise the QPF would be higher on the models in those situations. You guys in coastals want me to bank on high ratio banding that no matter how many times it happens, if I can't see it on the models other than a H7 low track, it's hard for me to go all in on a forecast. I know the QPF queen moniker but it's more than that as I need to see the omega on the models, which the models usually correlate with QPF. In coastals on the far NW side, it helps to look at omega on the cross section vs just 2 dimensional plots like H7...often the omega will be up higher like 500-600mb...and the models will underdo QPF under that...then everyone is shocked when it over-performs and says what you are describing here; "there wasn't much omega at on the H7 plots and the QPF was low!!" I'm not saying it works everytime..sometimes there's a nasty high confluence zone that just totally squashes the northwest side, but in those situations where you see a nice medium omega zone at 500-600mb in a saturated column...even if H7 omega is low...then it usually over-performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 In coastals on the far NW side, it helps to look at omega on the cross section vs just 2 dimensional plots like H7...often the omega will be up higher like 500-600mb...and the models will underdo QPF under that...then everyone is shocked when it over-performs and says what you are describing here; "there wasn't much omega at on the H7 plots and the QPF was low!!" I'm not saying it works everytime..sometimes there's a nasty high confluence zone that just totally squashes the northwest side, but in those situations where you see a nice medium omega zone at 500-600mb in a saturated column...even if H7 omega is low...then it usually over-performs. Thats a great tip, see that's an awesome post and helps me in the future....better than just PF never learns it magically snows further NW every storm haha. I didn't go to school for met, so the background equations and mid-level stuff to me is more vague, and I need to visually see it...if I see -15 to -20 micro bars stalling over SVT to CNH, I'm not as excited, even if the H7 track looks somewhat favorable. But knowing why that happens is great to look for in future systems. This storm though it's been pretty easy to spot the chance for an advisory snowfall vs just a D-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That no one posted about the 12z GFS in this thread nor in the model thread speaks volumes of the way this minor event is heading in SNE. Very little to speak of for the snow regions and mid-level warming invades the southern zones early on. Plus, qpf kind of sucks regardless of p-type so no big deal. Minimal gain for 'winners', no real loss for those missing out. Enjoy the cold--it's the only winter's we've got. 15.9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Thats a great tip, see that's an awesome post and helps me in the future....better than just PF never learns it magically snows further NW every storm haha. I didn't go to school for met, so the background equations and mid-level stuff to me is more vague, and I need to visually see it...if I see -15 to -20 micro bars stalling over SVT to CNH, I'm not as excited, even if the H7 track looks somewhat favorable. But knowing why that happens is great to look for in future systems. This storm though it's been pretty easy to spot the chance for an advisory snowfall vs just a D-2". Those coolwx.com time-hgt plots are nice for seeing omega in the entire column. Plymouth has the 2D maps for all of the levels as well. You can get non-mandatory levels (ie 650mb), but you need to manually edit the url. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm going 3-5" for most of the Berkshires tomorrow, with a spot 6" possible at 2K+ from Peru on up toward Woodford, Mt. Snow, and Stratton. I expect a bit less south of the Pike with 2-3" for that area in South Berkshire County as some freezing rain and sleet will likely mix in. Thanks to SW flow near the surface, I expect the highest totals to be on the west slope and Taconics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That no one posted about the 12z GFS in this thread nor in the model thread speaks volumes of the way this minor event is heading in SNE. Very little to speak of for the snow regions and mid-level warming invades the southern zones early on. Plus, qpf kind of sucks regardless of p-type so no big deal. Minimal gain for 'winners', no real loss for those missing out. Enjoy the cold--it's the only winter's we've got. 15.9/4 January is punted. Zero interest until February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That no one posted about the 12z GFS in this thread nor in the model thread speaks volumes of the way this minor event is heading in SNE. Very little to speak of for the snow regions and mid-level warming invades the southern zones early on. Plus, qpf kind of sucks regardless of p-type so no big deal. Minimal gain for 'winners', no real loss for those missing out. Enjoy the cold--it's the only winter's we've got. 15.9/4 I think you'll do okay, perhaps 2-4". Due to orographics, I think this may be a nice little advisory level event for these parts as the meso models are picking up on this signal. While it may be a little overdone, the 4km NAM shows this potential well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think you'll do okay, perhaps 2-4". Due to orographics, I think this may be a nice little advisory level event for these parts as the meso models are picking up on this signal. While it may be a little overdone, the 4km NAM shows this potential well. I'll take the low-end as the more likely scenario. 100% agree with you on this being a west-slope to spine winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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