Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks ok in NNE though...or decent. I read your post and then was surprised to see more QPF in NVT/NNH than in southern NH. The Berks to ORH jackpot though with 0.25-0.35" QPF...tapering to 0.15-.2" up here. Still some dry air or something coming down the coastline as the heaviest QPF is definitely western SNE of CT/Mass west of ORH. I think MPM looks to be in the best spot of consensus. It reminds me of those typical weak systems almost isothermal profiles for a time before the colder air filters in....the one thing though that is a bit bothersome for me is how cold it is as the surface at 12z Monday morning...the Euro (and other guidance) will overdo the diurnal warming. It warms things up by Could be a thin band of ice if aloft does warm for a time. My gut though based on everything says that it will probably be snow for a good chunk of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Seems like the Canadian was on to something with warming south of pike, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Seems like the Canadian was on to something with warming south of pike, ugh.Seems asthough the Canadian has had a good season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Seems asthough the Canadian has had a good seasonMeaning almost usable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 So is this what mets think final outcone is? Little snow and ice with nothing on coast? Can we improve this with low level cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 this monday event sounds like its trending towards a snoozer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 NAM is ugly south of the nh border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro ensembles look good for probably N CT northward...18z NAM is still pretty warm...though at the moment it continues to be an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 So is this what mets think final outcone is? Little snow and ice with nothing on coast? Can we improve this with low level cold? South coast that may very well happen...the Mass coast may have a better shot, especially BOS northward as this seems to be a west-east gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 NOAA's giving BOS up to a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Ensembles similar in qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 This event looks to be a steaming hot pile of garbage like most this winter. I really don't see much to be excited about in the end. It looks like a longer duration version of Friday with similar outcome of totals. Hope for the best I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Could be 2 maybe 3 near ORH-BED area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Could be 2 maybe 3 near ORH-BED area.That would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I think the mix line will be tolland-pvd if not further south from there. I don't buy the NAM torch to the NH border. That seems a little ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 1-2 is decent for now...you can up to 2-4 if things look a bit more robust (and still cold enough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro ensembles look good for probably N CT northward...18z NAM is still pretty warm...though at the moment it continues to be an outlier.Nice. Op too warm agsin it appears. Feeling pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Still think this is colder at low levels than depicted,pay attention to RGEM surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nice to come home after a difficult couple days and see this. Hope it's right .EXCEPT 2-4 INCHES NEAR E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN /WORCESTER COUNTY AND N CT INPARTICULAR/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nice to come home after a difficult couple days and see this. Hope it's right .EXCEPT 2-4 INCHES NEAR E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN /WORCESTER COUNTY AND N CT IN PARTICULAR/ Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 RGEM through 48 now...not a great model beyond 30 hours so use cautiously...its tended to be 20-30 miles too far NW with its frozen line this year, so a warm bias so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18z GFS looks like a 1-3" for CNE/NNE...south of the Pike the jury is still out. Starts off with a weak fronto band that starts in CNE/NNE and lifts NW. And while light snow continues in NY and NNE, it seems to warm up the mid-levels south of the Pike before the main precip shield moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Warm bias profile of GFS in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Warm bias profile of GFS in play Eh, it's a lousy situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Eh, it's a lousy situation.I like BOX ideas/joe D. Either way snow or ice or a combo here.. It's a net gain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18z GFS looks like a 1-3" for CNE/NNE...south of the Pike the jury is still out. Starts off with a weak fronto band that starts in CNE/NNE and lifts NW. And while light snow continues in NY and NNE, it seems to warm up the mid-levels south of the Pike before the main precip shield moves in. LOL--that description sounds a bit too grandiose. 12.3/-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'd feel good NW of 84. Seems like that's where the mix line pushes to before collapsing se as the best qpf passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I like BOX ideas/joe D. Either way snow or ice or a combo here.. It's a net gain I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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