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Jan 12 Overrunning Snow/Ice disco


Damage In Tolland

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Unless I get a little snow on the backside, this one will go in the books as 2.5". There's a bit of a light glaze on the trees and untreated surfaces are very icy. The main roads are mostly just wet .

This brings my seasonal total to 32.0", which is probably a tad above average through this point. I average around 73" per winter.

that is pretty good. You may be on your way to a halfway decent winter.

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Seems to me many places see a good 1/2 inch tonight with some luckier towns getting an inch. The stuff to watch is the strengthening band out over Western and Central Pa

 

I think it's just flurries...dries up as it heads east.

 

Some previous models were trying to show maybe a half inch or so, but not anymore. The energy gets sheared out too much in the trough going through the lakes.

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That precip fizzles before it ever makes it up here, Back side snows seldom pan out

 

That's more or less exactly what the HRRR is depicting, the deformation band snowfall in NY and VT dissipates as the upper-level impulse gets squashed when it moves into the jet entrance region offshore and transfers its energy to the coastal. 

 

HRRR 15 hour Animation

 

ujqDWN0.png

 

Only three hours later:

 

oELNqwM.png

 

The Left Entrance region will kill the precip as the upper-level jet amplifies.

 

7MDWyi4.gif

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Payback for 2012-2013...I think he ended up near average that winter or even below average while central and eastern areas got clocked.

 

The west and northwest arc of New England tends to have a climate that seems to have less variability...like from Pittsburgh, NH to here down through the Berks.  If its an overall great winter for New England, we'll usually be a bit less relative to climo as areas further east, but then again in some of the lower winters, say like 2011-2012 or how this winter is tracking, we'll be closer to normal.

 

Its kind of like for eastern New England and areas SE of the mountains in general...if its on, its really *on*.  You guys get some whopper winters relatively to normal, more so than we do...but also get more clunkers inbetween.  Tamarack said it well once that we have good winters overall and can do year after year of 90-110% of normal, but the great winters are harder to come by relatively speaking than areas further south, where some of you guys bounce around from like 50% of normal to 150% with no problem.

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The west and northwest arc of New England tends to have a climate that seems to have less variability...like from Pittsburgh, NH to here down through the Berks.  If its an overall great winter for New England, we'll usually be a bit less relative to climo as areas further east, but then again in some of the lower winters, say like 2011-2012 or how this winter is tracking, we'll be closer to normal.

 

Its kind of like for eastern New England and areas SE of the mountains in general...if its on, its really *on*.  You guys get some whopper winters relatively to normal, more so than we do...but also get more clunkers inbetween.  Tamarack said it well once that we have good winters overall and can do year after year of 90-110% of normal, but the great winters are harder to come by relatively speaking than areas further south, where some of you guys bounce around from like 50% of normal to 150% with no problem.

 

The percent of normal is mostly a function of average snowfall...which of course, you know.  

 

That said, Mitch's area legit got screwed in 2012-2013...he got only side-swiped by the Feb blizzard and missed the brunt of the March firehose event. So places with similarly lower variance in terms of percent of snowfall such as Monadnocks did so much better than his area. I think just to his west in Albnay was like a solid 10 inches below average that winter. Screwjob.

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