SR Airglow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 You're not off your rocker, that makes perfect sense. Big picture in here details in the models thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 On 1/9/2015 at 9:03 PM, ORH_wxman said: I didn't think it was that confusing. Going into intricate details of every frame of every model run versus a general overview of what guidance looks like for this system. But maybe I'm off my rocker. Makes sense. Touch upon the basics of the models if need be in here, and go into detail in the model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Sort of interesting and up in the air still. Some models suggest it might be a south of the pike deal. Could be a small window between where precip falls, and the rain snow line is located. Maybe a Hartford to Tolland to ORH, PVD BOS type of thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 On 1/9/2015 at 9:59 PM, sbos_wx said: Sort of interesting and up in the air still. Some models suggest it might be a south of the pike deal. Could be a small window between where precip falls, and the rain snow line is located. Maybe a Hartford to Tolland to ORH, PVD BOS type of thing I'd definitely favor that area for the best snows right now. South will have more QPF but also mixing issues, and north of there is going to be starved for QPF a bit(Although if that first band of overrunning works out like some guidance has it and hits NNE, it'll be a more widespread event). Regardless, this is probably like a 2-4" deal for most at the max, which considering what most of us have had so far this winter is a total win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This is kind of a tedious setup but I do like the way guidance trended today. A little bit more juice to the system. Don't mistake that for being a big event but we may be trending toward advisory snows in some areas if we hold the line or improve a bit. The northern stream has very subtly trended deeper and if we can pop a little coastal wave at the last second, it gives the system more upside. The thermal profiles could be an issue early on...esp south of pike and even more so near the south coast. Still another day or two to work out those details. In the "what can go wrong" department, we could end up with a disorganized precip shield with marginal temps in the early going which leads to coating or something. Conversely we could advect too much warm air in the mid levels, however, I think this scenario is less likely than the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 18z GFS looked good. Couple to a few inches for most in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Take the complaints to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 On 1/9/2015 at 11:13 PM, Cold Miser said: The big detailed picture. This is like the semi-big, limited cliff notes version in here. Lol. I think the highly organized, compartmentalized nature of the threads works in theory, but fails in practice.I've observed the discussion of the pattern, threats, and model runs to be quite disjointed overall. Not a huge fan, but I understand it won't be perfect from the get go. Edit. This should be in banter. On phone though. Can't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looking more and more like a statewide advisory event for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 On 1/9/2015 at 11:26 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: Looking more and more like a statewide advisory event for CT.concur, low level cold means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Pretty dry next 8 days on the 18z GFS....take the nickel and add it to the dime. It is all snow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS is by far the driest compared to the other models with this system, not even close really. It's partially because it doesn't really have a defined "coastal" like the others have, but it's also the GFS dry bias I'd suspect. Para even was a good bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 1:31 AM, CoastalWx said: Snoozer lol. Wake up after MLK weekend and hope it looks better for something more than a ceiling of 3-4".For whatever reason getting a nice cold 1/2" QPF run of the mill 6" synoptic snow event somewhere in New England has been impossible the past 3-4 weeks. I agree with Blizz though...in this pattern you just gotta enjoy every half inch that falls, lol. I like a widespread 1-3" for the overrunning event. SFC temps look cold, but warming aloft will lead to the standard 10:1 WAA at H7-H8 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 1:42 AM, powderfreak said: Snoozer lol. Wake up after MLK weekend and hope it looks better for something more than a ceiling of 3-4". For whatever reason getting a nice cold 1/2" QPF run of the mill 6" synoptic snow event somewhere in New England has been impossible the past 3-4 weeks. I agree with Blizz though...in this pattern you just gotta enjoy every half inch that falls, lol. I like a widespread 1-3" for the overrunning event. SFC temps look cold, but warming aloft will lead to the standard 10:1 WAA at H7-H8 ratios. It's ridiculous. I'm all set with driveway toppers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Another 2-4 would be awesome. PF havent you had continuous cover since Nov and have like 55 inches on Jan 9th, you have three months left too. Good God man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 2:12 AM, Ginxy said: Another 2-4 would be awesome. PF havent you had continuous cover since Nov and have like 55 inches on Jan 9th, you have three months left too. Good God manHe's like a rich politician from old wealth who preaches about the plight of the working class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 2:16 AM, JC-CT said: He's like a rich politician from old wealth who preaches about the plight of the working class.great analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 2:25 AM, Ginxy said: great analogyAlthough I like him better. Who doesn't like PF? Nobody, that's who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Alright. We don't need b**ching in this thread. We have a banter thread for the wrist slitters. At any rate, I'm still tracking this one. It sucks for those who got a half inch today. But let me tell you, even 2-3" OTG outside right now makes a world of difference. This next storm could easily drop that for areas like BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 2:31 AM, ORH_wxman said: Alright. We don't need b**ching in this thread. We have a banter thread for the wrist slitters. At any rate, I'm still tracking this one. It sucks for those who got a half inch today. But let me tell you, even 2-3" OTG outside right now makes a world of difference. This next storm could easily drop that for areas like BOS. we can only pray, it's nauseous. The Euro looked pretty good for an advisory event. But unless it's a foot the insatiable will remain insatiable. Euro actually looked like it could easily ramp up some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nam looks pretty good,cold column about .3 to .5 precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 P quote name="Ginxy" post="3245275" timestamp="1420859297"] Nam looks pretty good,cold column about .3 to .5 precip. It looked like barely 0.1" to me for BOS to ORH, a little more south. Pretty big cutback from the 18z run but it's the LR nam not exactly concerned one way or the other about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 .28 at my house, 3.2 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 3:08 AM, Ginxy said: Nam looks pretty good,cold column about .3 to .5 precip. Looked nice south of the CT/MA border. Hopefully we see a general swath of snow a little more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Quick glance. Gfs doesn't look bad. Cold-ish look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 4:18 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Quick glance. Gfs doesn't look bad. Cold-ish look to it NCEP stuck at 66. Looked okay on the WU maps though. Few inches south of the Pike. Coatings north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 4:21 AM, NorEastermass128 said: NCEP stuck at 66. Looked okay on the WU maps though. Few inches south of the Pike. Coatings north?try herehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015011000&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=343 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 4:21 AM, NorEastermass128 said: NCEP stuck at 66. Looked okay on the WU maps though. Few inches south of the Pike. Coatings north? Looks like a general 1-3" spot 4 type Deal for most. Pretty uniform look IMO on that run. Maybe brief mixing issues pike south to start but it doesn't last long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On 1/10/2015 at 4:25 AM, Ginxy said: try here http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015011000&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=343 thanks! just bookmarked it. Looks similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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