Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Over the last few days we've seen the GGEM and GEFS both sniffing out that this would at least bring snow into SNE..and the Euro finally decided to catch on at 12z yesterday. The 00z runs now get accumulating snows up into NNE. Euro ens also fairly bullish Only thing may have to worry about is far SE coast of SNE for mix or rain before a flip back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Bring it....overrunning then a coastal. Should be a fun tracking week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Right now consensus between EURO GFS GGEM is 1-3"(Maybe 4" in some spots if the EURO/GGEM is right) from central CT north or so with either ZR or RN south of there. I'd be somewhat skeptical though at least for RN considering this is a situation where cold is pressing down from the north and as we've seen recently models usually under do that. Regardless has a good shot at being accumulating snow for many and I like that it's been trending better in the mid range instead of vanishing. Still 3 days to go though, so don't get too excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 A lot of guidance has ptype issues for at least part of the event for CT/RI/SE MA. GGEM was at least up to the pike. It eventually collapses back SE but this one is a bit of a mess at the moment to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah that's why I titled it snow/ice since there is some guidance that gets sleet and Zr up into coastal areas or a touch north of there. Low level cold is impressive so one would think this ends up a colder solution as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 A lot of guidance has ptype issues for at least part of the event for CT/RI/SE MA. GGEM was at least up to the pike. It eventually collapses back SE but this one is a bit of a mess at the moment to forecast. If that confluence/ s/w can be timed just right, things could break positively for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Canadian is now very amplified with this and warm as a result, figures the one time this winter we don't want amplification we get it but we couldn't buy a north trend to save our lives earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Icy look away from coast on Canadian. My guess is it's way too warm with low level cold pressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is it a rainer for EMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is it a rainer for EMA? Verbatim it is a rainer for all of SNE outside of the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 UKMET at hour 72 looks much closer to the GFS's than the GGEM, and given that the GGEM has a tendency to overamp and that the NAM(which would likely be way NW if this was going to be super amped), is relatively flat, fairly comfortable tossing the GGEM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Icy look away from coast on Canadian. My guess is it's way too warm with low level cold pressing A grand total of 2 of 12 GFS ensemble members are even close to the Canadian and they are still less amped...the one time I want an amped solution since I want no part of freezing rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro is all snow interior and flips to snow on the coast. Supports a 2-4 or 3-5 type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Nice, we are starting to get into reliability range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Rain? I haven't seen rain in about a week or so. Looking forward to some. Bone chilling cold this week, Rainer to start next week. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Rain? I haven't seen rain in about a week or so. Looking forward to some. Bone chilling cold this week, Rainer to start next week. Cool. You are joking right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 You are joking right? No. I am pretty sure I got some rain sometime last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro looks good for sne, says Canadian is way too warm. We snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro is pretty nice looking for Monday. South coast has ptype issues early on but probably 2-4 most of the rest of SNE. Even south coast goes to snow tho Precip goes up into NNE too bit probably more like 1-2 there. The orographics spots would obviously get more This should probably be in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 You are joking right? In all seriousness, I loathe rain in the winter. I know it comes with the territory, but nothing more depressing weather-wise than cold rain in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 In all seriousness, I loathe rain in the winter. I know it comes with the territory, but nothing more depressing weather-wise than cold rain in winter. In all serious, the GGEM is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This should probably be in this thread Both is fine. That's what the Model Thread is for, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 In all serious, the GGEM is on its own. Let's hope. Another 24-36 hours I suppose we will have a better grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I was trying to keep too much model play by play out of this thread as the event is still 3+ days out. I usually make a general post in these threads after the model suite is entirely out on the state of guidance rather than doing each model play by play in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I was trying to keep too much model play by play out of this thread as the event is still 3+ days out. I usually make a general post in these threads after the model suite is entirely out on the state of guidance rather than doing each model play by play in here. Good point and as it should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Would a mixed bag over to snow for 1-2" sound about right for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I was trying to keep too much model play by play out of this thread as the event is still 3+ days out. I usually make a general post in these threads after the model suite is entirely out on the state of guidance rather than doing each model play by play in here. My bad, I thought that once an event thread was open that trumped the model thread. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 My bad, I thought that once an event thread was open that trumped the model thread. Sorry! I think it's fine to post about the models in here but just not in the play by play aspect of it. An example might be "euro is a shade north 48 hours". "850 line extends from BOS to BDL with the 0.10" line at the NH border". That kind of extreme dissection. In here I'm more bound to post something like "models have decent agreement for a minor snowfall on Monday and Monday night with the Euro and nam most bullish and the GGEM the warm outlier". Something like that. The models do need to be discussed to a point. The purpose of the model thread was to keep the over dissection of every frame out of our other threads and also allow people to post about other storms on the models outside of the current one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Color me even more confused after Wills soliloquy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Color me even more confused after Wills soliloquy I didn't think it was that confusing. Going into intricate details of every frame of every model run versus a general overview of what guidance looks like for this system. But maybe I'm off my rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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