famartin Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro has had it for the last several runs, though its been a bit murky with exact track and temps (not surprisingly this far out). GFS is suppressed, but also has a storm. GGEM is faster, with a system centered more on Wednesday as opposed to the Euro and GFS's Thursday storm. Etc etc... its within a week so might as well make a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro has had it for the last several runs, though its been a bit murky with exact track and temps (not surprisingly this far out). GFS is suppressed, but also has a storm. GGEM is faster, with a system centered more on Wednesday as opposed to the Euro and GFS's Thursday storm. Etc etc... its within a week so might as well make a thread. Plus, you've got the hot hand right now - keep it going Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS is OTS. PGFS skirts us and is a close call to being something nicer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 In other winters I would say the GFS is right where we want it. This year and with a new GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS is OTS. PGFS skirts us and is a close call to being something nicer: Well, considering the NAO is Positive. I would think at this time it is a good thing to have the storm off the coast if you would like to get wintry precipitation. We can thread the needle later on during the runs tonight and through the weekend we still have some time to work on this being its hour 156. I believe despite a +NAO which promotes the dreaded fast progressive flow we can win here. Just keep the storm to the right of the coast (east) and we may just do fine. AKA last year! (Sorry Tombo and yes I am being Sincere! Happy New Year!) I think the blockbuster storm comes in February when hopefully when we can get some decent blocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Digital flip flop continues at 12z with ECM losing the 0z mid week storm and the PARA getting semblance of one back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Digital flip flop continues at 12z with ECM losing the 0z mid week storm and the PARA getting semblance of one back. Comical swing of events but obvious confusion going into next week. Now we need to find out why the models are so confused; any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Comical swing of events but obvious confusion going into next week. Now we need to find out why the models are so confused; any thoughts? Most likely the upgrades the ECM has received over the last year have thrown it off balance. That and the Pacific jet this winter, but yeah ECM long range wasn't doing so well showing too many fantasy threats the final 4-6 weeks of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 0z ECM no mid week storm well out to sea. Getting close to wasting a ton of cold air in the first half of January and failing on this window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 6z gfs takes near-perfect track but yields rain for most. Likely not going to be a snow event with this one, cold air non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 6z gfs takes near-perfect track but yields rain for most. Likely not going to be a snow event with this one, cold air non-existent. Looks like either rain or nothing in this pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 6z gfs takes near-perfect track but yields rain for most. Likely not going to be a snow event with this one, cold air non-existent. No worries Ralphie 12z para has the phantom low raining on Bermuda and old GFS well OTS like ECM. Model boggle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Ggem has been really consistent with getting light snow into the region on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Dewpoint running single numbers to North Carolina South Carolina line with low De points many other locations screams evap cooling and temps falling quite a bit with precip coming in. If skies can stay somewhat pt cloudy or clear more cooling but that's a big if but not the low dew points. Should be interesting to see what happens. Water on drive back to ice despite 38 degrees there is the cold ground factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Ggem has been really consistent with getting light snow into the region on Wednesday. Still trying, but it seems to have backed off a smidge at 0Z. Euro still tries to bring a tiny bit up too but it ain't much, just a few hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM gives South Jersey some frozen on Wednesday. Definitely something that bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM gives South Jersey some frozen on Wednesday. Definitely something that bears watching. Not even sure that's snow down here. Slop ending as snow perhaps. 80s era winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM gives South Jersey some frozen on Wednesday. Definitely something that bears watching. 0z RGEM trending better for Wed. am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 EC gets 0.01" up to around Dover and Wildwood on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 EC gets 0.01" up to around Dover and Wildwood on Wednesday. Both 06z NAM's a little farther north and wetter, getting interesting for South Jersey and Delaware, short term model wise at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 South jersey gonna get hit, watch out! Well, guidance is heading that way anyway. Im leaning towards this actually happening and being a surprise snow event. Most systems have trended n and w this season.....most. Cold air already in place. Marginal but there. Cmc has support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Even the progressive navgem has this affecting the mid Atlantic into south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This could be a little surprise event, but we need the GFS/EURO to hop on board to increase my confidence. NAM & GGEM are not the best duo to lean on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Even the progressive navgem has this affecting the mid Atlantic into south jersey. Ok i'm interested but will feel better when some GFS support is gained. Mt Holly going with a mix bag down here. Might end up being snow to mix back to snow if the NAM is correct. This might be a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ok i'm interested but will feel better when some GFS support is gained. Mt Holly going with a mix bag down here. Might end up being snow to mix back to snow if the NAM is correct. This might be a pleasant surprise.I dont think the gfs gets on board until too late....struggles with inverted trof and mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Even if you get a few hours of slop I would take it in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The para GFS almost has it on the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 not one to jump on the back of the nam.....without support from either gfs or euro. So I will not turn on the SoMoCo snow magnets until then....if we need a bit of northern push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Only thing I will say in support of nam at this range is that its higher resolution might be keying on the inverted trof feature a little better. Lower res models could possibly be misjudging this feature. Lets see what 12z says.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z nam close but doesnt really get it done. Moisture runs into a wall of drier air. Upon closer inspection and looking at 700mb rh I deem that this run is actually very close to something nice in parts of delaware and extreme south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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