Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z NMM and ARW total snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro comin' in hot...and a slight bump north euro snow band.png I'd think that would weigh pretty heavily as to whether a WWA is issued by the midnight shift. Definitely positive trends tonight for the most part. High res guidance will be interesting to track tomorrow as to whether band ends up stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 First call for ORD: 2.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 It looks like there will be a sucker hole between the fgen band to the north and WAA precip to the south tomorrow evening, most likely within 50 miles or so of the Kankakee. Remind me not to jump this time tomorrow. I'm thinking 3-4" is a good range for down here. I'm feeling a little more bearish on ratios, since the DGZ is modeled to be pretty thin (~75 mb or less) and the best omega looks to be below it until the tail end of the precip. I would guess closer to 12:1 or perhaps even slightly lower, though I'm certainly not an expert at ratios. Counterbalance that with the tendency for fgen bands to overperform and you can turn modeled QPFs generally in the 0.25-0.3" range into 4" with a little bit of luck. The wild card for NW IN and Chicago will be any light lake-effect. 850 mb temps drop to around -12 C by Monday afternoon/evening per the 4km NAM and other models, which will produce delta T's of 17-18 C (lake surface temps around 40-42 F over open water this evening), but with the dry Arctic air moving in behind the front, inversion heights will be awfully low for anything significant. Not only that, but with winds backing as the High drifts southward, there'd be little time for a band to organize since the convergence axis will be continually shifting westward. Could be an inch or so extra in one or two lucky spots but as I just laid out, lots working against anything more than that. Inversion heights seem to struggle to even get up to 850 mb on forecast soundings. Delta T between the lake and about 900 mb is alright, but that's awfully shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 You and Gil swingin' long ball. I like it. I respect 100% of other peep's calls over mine...that being said, originally I was picturing spending my sunday evening hoping the defo band could just inch north another 30 miles while some thinner bands set up overhead and to the north in your neck of the woods. With the definitive shift over the last 36 hours I am wondering if I don't spend the sunday evening picking up a few inches and watching the "ripping" band hover just to my north up by you. It really is tricky at this juncture to pin down where she will park. The one thing that I (always take with a grain of salt) can say with decent confidence is that someone should get a decent high end WWA thump. It's not much....but the orientation of the defo band has also been shifting ever so slightly...and with us being on the fringes so to speak, it really can play a key role (obv). This is by no means a classic pivot point set-up...but, if short range continues even the slightest trend toward bring a little more north south to the defo band (as opposed to the current just north of due east)...then I think a Peru to Mt Prospect line does pretty well. Bottom line....I'm pondering flip flopping my ORD and MBY calls....but since I usually roll with my original I'll stick with it. Curious to see how solid the feed is in the morning down south and orientation of the bleeding in "cold" air... fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 So on one hand, the heights looked to be lower than models progged, yet the surface low looks to be stronger than modeled while the Canadian HP is weaker than modeled... But even then, there doesn't seem to be any huge differences between current obs. and model forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 20*F now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Latest HPC day 1 snowfall outlook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Latest HPC day 1 snowfall outlook: Usually I don't call out forecasts from WPC/NWS but I think they are ignoring trends and placement of the better snows to the north, tbh most of the area they highlight is looking more s***t and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Usually I don't call out forecasts from WPC/NWS but I think they are ignoring trends and placement of the better snows to the north, tbh most of the area they highlight is looking more s***t and freezing rain. Yeah. I'm ok with the areas they already have in the swath, but it should definitely include areas further NW as well (unless they're going by the dry GFS or NMM/ARW verbatim). BTW, take a look at the interesting evolution the 06z RAP is projecting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 06z 12km NAM is a bit farther north than 00z run. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 IWX used interesting wording in their latest aviation forecast. Perhaps they're foreshadowing the issuance of Winter/Ice Storm Warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12km NAM came in very moist here .3-.4" liquid equivalent with even a pocket of >.4" just east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 06z 12km NAM is a bit farther north than 00z run. Sent from my SM-G900V It looks to be drier for your area though... (it's about the same here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Getting interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 My call looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Has been very busy for me with the snow and cold. This AM maps and modeling look like a nice little snow for SE Michigan SW Ontario today/tonight. I'm thinking a solid 2" for the area. Stebo was the 0.4" the same fetch from Lake Erie I noticed over my head ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Ice Storm Warning for the I-70 corridor and north in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 LOT overnight shift not all that impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 6 to 9 degrees warmer here right now than all the hourlies I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 6 to 9 degrees warmer here right now than all the hourlies I've seen. ad a steady 18 degree rise here since 9am. Definitely wasn't in the forecast cards yesterday morning. I still think this event is going to surprise many, overachieve with snow/sleet totals and especially with Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 liking MMO to VPZ for 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 the sucker hole (mentioned by thunder road and common in these setups) is well advertised on the HRR/RAP both with one over Cook Co (although the band to the north isn't worth losing sleep over) and another souther closer to BMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 LOT having some in house debate: Yesterday PM AFD: THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON OUR INCREASING CHANCES FOR A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. This AM: HAVE LOWER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW 1-3 call from yesterday probably had this covered. Call for 1"in MBY this AM probably a case of over tuning. Haven't seen any real guidance that changed from last evening. I've seen folks have to play some major catch up in theses set ups. Anyway, be fun to watch while taking in a Cowboys and Bronco win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 the well advertised screw hole(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12km NAM came in very moist here .3-.4" liquid equivalent with even a pocket of >.4" just east of here. at this point idk why dtx is being SO conservative. Guidance qpf for DTW is now 0.25-0.35" yet they still say 1-2" with locally higher possible? . And they dont even mention qpf in their discussion, which they usually do. This seems to be one of the rare times powerball is bullish so lets do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 6z HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 LOT having some in house debate: Yesterday PM AFD: THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON OUR INCREASING CHANCES FOR A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. This AM: HAVE LOWER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW 1-3 call from yesterday probably had this covered. Call for 1"in MBY this AM probably a case of over tuning. Haven't seen any real guidance that changed from last evening. I've seen folks have to play some major catch up in theses set ups. Anyway, be fun to watch while taking in a Cowboys and Bronco win. Romo is Romotose today lol. There's a lot going on from this WV loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html Pretty wild setup for January IMO. My P&C is calling for 2-4 of snow and sleet. Then 20 miles north, 1 in of snow and sleet, 20 miles south .4 of ice and 1 in of sleet. Pretty crazy calls. I wouldn't be surprised to see the heavy ice line move farther NE in my area. Either or, a big chunck of moisture is being ejected North with this. An isolated area somewhere from central IL. to North Central OH. is gonna get pretty well hammered with some substantial winter precip. Would love to see the warm nose hit a brick wall south of I-70 so I don't have to deal with that ice on the way to work tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Surface temps continue to rise above guidance. Now it's 26*F here (the max temp the 00z GEM showed today)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 6z HRDPS hrdps_qpf_mw_49.png Congrats Lambton County! And this model sort of shows the downsloping effect north of Toronto, while the 6z NAM has the whole length of the east side of the escarpment getting screwed. NAM really was the only model to pick up on that qpf minima with the previous clipper and with a 210-240 flow it's hard not to want to run with it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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