Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm not much of a model guy, I figure they let me know somethings happening then I start old school now casting 24 hours out with observations and satellite. The ULL in the SW has been sitting over the Gulf of California for more than a few days now. As it ejects it just seems to me it's wound up. The SE ridge has been fickle this year, far from predictable, aka the Grinch storm. There's a pattern change taking place, look at the huge slug of moisture barreling in from the eastern Pacific, fast jet, zonal, and warm. That's probably the precursor to a warm up towards the end of next week. There's also a strong ridge impinging on the flow over the SE from the western Atlantic that has slowed a lot over the last 48 hours. I'm not gonna invest in the ridge to SE/E being as strong as modeled, I think the flow from the Pacific, the slowing in the Atlantic, doesn't give it much of a chance, or be hard to predict at least. I wouldn't be surprised to see this event be very surprising, overachiever from a snowfall standpoint, and a little more widespread than the models are forecasting, with a thinner but more intense band of ice, possibly significant ice from St. Louis to Dayton.. But once it's passed, torch city by Friday or so next week. But I'm a tropical guy so winter isn't my element Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z RGEM forecast soundings for IND from 24-30 hours. It's a classic freezing rain look until after hour 27 when it tries to take temps above freezing. May or may not verify but it's not just some error on the precip type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z GFS is actually a bit drier here (compared to the 18z run)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm not much of a model guy, I figure they let me know somethings happening then I start old school now casting 24 hours out with observations and satellite. The ULL in the SW has been sitting over the Gulf of California for more than a few days now. As it ejects it just seems to me it's wound up. The SE ridge has been fickle this year, far from predictable, aka the Grinch storm. There's a pattern change taking place, look at the huge slug of moisture barreling in from the eastern Pacific, fast jet, zonal, and warm. That's probably the precursor to a warm up towards the end of next week. There's also a strong ridge impinging on the flow over the SE from the western Atlantic that has slowed a lot over the last 48 hours. I'm not gonna invest in the ridge to SE/E being as strong as modeled, I think the flow from the Pacific, the slowing in the Atlantic, doesn't give it much of a chance, or be hard to predict at least. I wouldn't be surprised to see this event be very surprising, overachiever from a snowfall standpoint, and a little more widespread than the models are forecasting, with a thinner but more intense band of ice, possibly significant ice from St. Louis to Dayton.. But once it's passed, torch city by Friday or so next week. But I'm a tropical guy so winter isn't my element Agree wholeheartedly. But after this next zonal flow I suspect it maybe the last torch( and normal to slightly above for a week is not a torch) for a while. Enjoy the break. February will be nice..for snow lovers. Oh and to stay on topic...going 3.9 for MBY with tomorrow's frontogenic band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Pretty sure I read on here today, in another sub-forum, that the pGFS becomes "official" sometime this coming week. So say hello to your new overlord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not saying it will have any bearing on what happens tomorrow but anyone notice temps have sorta unexpectedly been steady or slowly rising this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not saying it will have any bearing on what happens tomorrow but anyone notice temps have sorta unexpectedly been steady or slowly rising this evening? That was expected, but not as warm nor as fast I don't think. Of course, WAA always overachieves in these southerly/SW flow setups (something to also keep in mind). It's currently 17*F here. The forecast from DTX originally called for temps to rise to 16*F, but it has since been lowered to a steady temp around 13*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not saying it will have any bearing on what happens tomorrow but anyone notice temps have sorta unexpectedly been steady or slowly rising this evening? Felt downright balmy about an hour ago when out feeding the horses. 22* and minimal wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Pretty sure I read on here today, in another sub-forum, that the pGFS becomes "official" sometime this coming week. So say hello to your new overlord. pgfs chicago.png pgfs detroit.png pgfs indy.png Now the 00z pGFS is actually wetter here than the 18z pGFS (while it's the other way around with OP GFS)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 That was expected, but not as warm nor as fast I don't think. Of course, WAA always overachieves in these southerly/SW flow setups (something to also keep in mind). My forecast had 17 or 18 at this time...LAF at 23 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 My forecast had 17 or 18 at this time...LAF at 23 right now. 40's easy tomorrow at KTIM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 40's easy tomorrow at KTIM. Wouldn't doubt it's already in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Agree wholeheartedly. But after this next zonal flow I suspect it maybe the last torch( and normal to slightly above for a week is not a torch) for a while. Enjoy the break. February will be nice..for snow lovers. Oh and to stay on topic...going 3.9 for MBY with tomorrow's frontogenic band. Deserved, should've posted part of that in another thread. 3 days of 30 degrees is a torch to my virgin winter butt lol. Not my forte but I'm going big IMBY, 1.0 of snow 1.0 of sleet, .25 of ice, 2.0 of snow in that order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Wouldn't doubt it's already in the 40s. Good stuff. EDIT: 23.4˚ and steadily climbing, BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Agree wholeheartedly. But after this next zonal flow I suspect it maybe the last torch( and normal to slightly above for a week is not a torch) for a while. Enjoy the break. February will be nice..for snow lovers. Oh and to stay on topic...going 3.9 for MBY with tomorrow's frontogenic band. You and Gil swingin' long ball. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Been some hints of lake effect trying to get going off of Lake Michigan post-storm, starting in MI/IN and then possibly swinging west toward the western shore. Setup looks bad though (and that's probably being nice) with awful inversion heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 0z NMM looks like it will be on the SE side of guidance with regards to how far the nrn cut off of the fronto band gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Pretty solid hit of snow for northern IN and OH (and LOT's southern CWA too) on the 0z RGEM. rgem snow.gif rgem snow 2.gif Well at least this model doesn't totally shut me out! haha GGEM came in as far north of the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We still somehow manged to eek out around 0.25" here, but yeah, that 00z NMM run is kind of ugly (more so than the GFS)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We still somehow manged to eek out around 0.25" here, but yeah, that 00z NMM run is kind of ugly (more so than the GFS)... Yeah had me a little worried and then I see the 0z GEM lol the HRRR will be fun to watch tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm still a bit hesitant on if the band can actually stall or if it's more of a slow northward movement till it reaches it's most north point and then more transient before moving back SE. If it can stall though for a 3-4hr period I think totals could near 5" with 1"/hr rates within the heart of it. I'll go 2.8" for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well at least this model doesn't totally shut me out! haha GGEM came in as far north of the RGEM. Gonna come down to nowcast tomorrow for us on the extreme northern fringes. Too close to call at this point. Could be zero flakes, could be 2-3". RGEM/GEM is our best friend out of all the models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I will wait until after the 12z runs tomorrow (and when the SPC mesoanalysis/radar will be more helpful), but I'm leaning towards bumping my initial call to 3-5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 NMM Alek shutout? Eh, such a fickle model. I'm sure it'll tick north to come in line with the others...tomorrow with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 PA_000-072_0000.gif That's the wettest model of them all for us (wetter than even the NAM)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 0z GGEM is a "torch" for LAF. Drip drip 34˚ at 6z Monday (26˚ at 0z Mon, 29˚ at 12z Mon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Even if the GGEM is correct on temps (which is doubtful - it just seems to be weird with surface temps), the likelihood of continued ice accretion on surfaces is pretty high given the extremely cold surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It looks like there will be a sucker hole between the fgen band to the north and WAA precip to the south tomorrow evening, most likely within 50 miles or so of the Kankakee. Remind me not to jump this time tomorrow. I'm thinking 3-4" is a good range for down here. I'm feeling a little more bearish on ratios, since the DGZ is modeled to be pretty thin (~75 mb or less) and the best omega looks to be below it until the tail end of the precip. I would guess closer to 12:1 or perhaps even slightly lower, though I'm certainly not an expert at ratios. Counterbalance that with the tendency for fgen bands to overperform and you can turn modeled QPFs generally in the 0.25-0.3" range into 4" with a little bit of luck. The wild card for NW IN and Chicago will be any light lake-effect. 850 mb temps drop to around -12 C by Monday afternoon/evening per the 4km NAM and other models, which will produce delta T's of 17-18 C (lake surface temps around 40-42 F over open water this evening), but with the dry Arctic air moving in behind the front, inversion heights will be awfully low for anything significant. Not only that, but with winds backing as the High drifts southward, there'd be little time for a band to organize since the convergence axis will be continually shifting westward. Could be an inch or so extra in one or two lucky spots but as I just laid out, lots working against anything more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro comin' in hot...and a slight bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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