Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Bolded is usually the way to go. Alas, better go find a helmet. Got my earplugs ready just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z NAM brought the 0.25" line widespread across LOT. 2-4 solid call. Expecting WWAs up after 00z suite. I think stall potential of the band and amounts to 4-5" are both possible, but I'm not sure the midnight shift will pull the trigger on a WWA. Could definitely see needing one, but it might not be issued til tomorrow morning. With typical advisory criteria 3-5", we'll have to hone in on the areas most likely to get that since the snow is falling on a Sunday night and there likely will be no blowing/drifting issues. Also, what a cutoff on the northern end of the precip on the 00z 12 km and 4km NAM, though that's quite common in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z NAM is actually a bump south on the northwest edge here. Went from 0.25" with the 18z to 0.10" on the new run. Nothing at all about 30 miles north. Too close to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z NAM is actually a bump south on the northwest edge here. Went from 0.25" with the 18z to 0.10" on the new run. Nothing at all about 30 miles north. Too close to call. The amounts within the main part of the swath expanded slightly NW, but yeah, a very nasty cut-off on the edge this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 4km says the north side of my yard gets nothing, while my southern side yard may get an inch lol. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Also, what a cutoff on the northern end of the precip on the 00z 12 km and 4km NAM, though that's quite common in these setups. Geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z 4km NAM total precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 00z NAM does get surface temps pretty warm. It even has us getting into the low 30s by Monday morning. That could aide in better snowfall rates/flake size though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 RGEM precip type maps look weird again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 GGEM has been trying to sell this, and so is tonight's 0z RGEM. That area of plain old rain in central IN, in between sleet/snow to the north...and freezing rain to the south . Effin' weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Telepathy strikes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 At least we didn't post the exact same map (time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think stall potential of the band and amounts to 4-5" are both possible, but I'm not sure the midnight shift will pull the trigger on a WWA. Could definitely see needing one, but it might not be issued til tomorrow morning. With typical advisory criteria 3-5", we'll have to hone in on the areas most likely to get that since the snow is falling on a Sunday night and there likely will be no blowing/drifting issues. Also, what a cutoff on the northern end of the precip on the 00z 12 km and 4km NAM, though that's quite common in these setups. I see...low-impact event due to the timing of the event, and major uncertainty given sharp gradient. Radar trends tkmorrow I suppose will be the key, and as you said-- wherever that band sets up and stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 RGEM precip type maps look weird again I_nw_r1_EST_2015011100_029.png The surface temps it shows look interesting too... I highly doubt we stay in the low 20s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Somehow, this is the final result as far as QPF on the 00z RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 cref_sfc_f24.png That band is going to be money. Would be surprised if someone pulled out low warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 At least we didn't post the exact same map (time). Haha Was trying to figure out why the RGEM/GGEM are doing that and I'm not really sure. There are some hillier areas/elevation changes in some of that area farther south but I don't think that explains it. I think the models are just trying to tell us that temps are going to be borderline. It would be pretty funny to see it play out like that in real-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That band is going to be money. Would be surprised if someone pulled out low warning criteria snows. Lol I wouldn't go that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We'll call it mini-GHD. The NAM is so broken up about it...it won't even give us full credit for the tack on snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We'll call it mini-GHD s****.png Actually, placement and appearance-wise, it does kind of look like GHD 2011 did on that RUC map posted above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Haha Was trying to figure out why the RGEM/GGEM are doing that and I'm not really sure. There are some hillier areas/elevation changes in some of that area farther south but I don't think that explains it. I think the models are just trying to tell us that temps are going to be borderline. It would be pretty funny to see it play out like that in real-time. Can't say I've ever seen that actually happen, as presented by the RGEM, but yeah why not...first time for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 0z GFS coming in a good deal wetter with the fronto band through 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Lol I wouldn't go that farNo? Why not? Ruling out the possibility of 6" from a stalled out fronto band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 0z GFS coming in a good deal wetter with the fronto band through 24hr. Small area of .25" in 6 hours south of Moline at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I see...low-impact event due to the timing of the event, and major uncertainty given sharp gradient. Radar trends tkmorrow I suppose will be the key, and as you said-- wherever that band sets up and stalls.If I were making the decision, I likely would issue though, and go Cook, DuPage, Kane and south. And also not ruling out that they go with one on the midnight shift. Positive trends so far from the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 No? Why not? Ruling out the possibility of 6" from a stalled out fronto band? LOT did say it was a possibility using the "Garcia Method." But it's still a low probability of that occurring at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Haha Was trying to figure out why the RGEM/GGEM are doing that and I'm not really sure. There are some hillier areas/elevation changes in some of that area farther south but I don't think that explains it. I think the models are just trying to tell us that temps are going to be borderline. It would be pretty funny to see it play out like that in real-time. I think it was the NY storm - I remember those p-type maps were whacky and showing ZR here even though sfc temps were like 35. Haven't seen the the full data on 0z yet so not sure if it really makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Good luck DVN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Pretty solid hit of snow for northern IN and OH (and LOT's southern CWA too) on the 0z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.