snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 ILN goes WWA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH400 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-110500-/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0002.150111T1800Z-150112T2100Z/WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CINCINNATI400 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OFINTERSTATE 70 AND LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTHOF INTERSTATE 70. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF ANINCH. SOME LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCEDVISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ICING WILL CAUSESOME ROADS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLIPPERY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 LOT THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER MY AREA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOT BEEN SO MUCH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES...BUT WITH FAR NORTH TO GO WITH SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. A RATHER STOUT COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. WITH A MUCH COLDER DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO SAG BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA...THIS WILL ACT TO PUT AN END TO THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL ALSO ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A BAND OR TWO OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. NON GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AND NOW SUGGESTS THAT A BAND OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD SET UP RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD FAVOR SNOWFALL GETTING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ADDITION TO THIS...GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WITH THIS IN MIND...I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN NICELY ATOP A LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS FEATURING MEAN MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 G/KG WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED MB...AND OVERALL COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES. SO...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL IS EXISTS WITH WHERE THE BEST BAND OF FGEN WILL SET UP...IT IS COMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT A BAND OR TWO OF DECENT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES. FOR INSTANCE...THE GARCIA METHOD ALONE WOULD SUGGEST AMOUNTS POSSIBLY UP AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...I AM NOT SURE THIS MUCH SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THAT THE MESOSCALE BAND OF FGEN APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY EVEN SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES COULD STILL PUSH AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR MENDOTA AND POINTS SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88 BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BAND OF FGEN CENTERED NEAR 850 MB. THE SNOW COULD TRY TO MIX WITH SLEET ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT UNLESS SOME WARMER AIR SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF MY AREA OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BY SUNDAY EVENING...IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF FGEN AROUND 700 MB. THIS BAND OF FGEN...AND THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SNOW...THEN LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AREAS UP AROUND 4 INCHES CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH OF ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 ILN goes WWA. I'd be shocked if we get anything advisory-worthy out of this. Clearly a good ole fashioned wagons north trend going on. 18z rgem agrees big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 LOT THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER MY AREA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOT BEEN SO MUCH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES...BUT WITH FAR NORTH TO GO WITH SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. A RATHER STOUT COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. WITH A MUCH COLDER DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO SAG BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA...THIS WILL ACT TO PUT AN END TO THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL ALSO ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A BAND OR TWO OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. NON GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AND NOW SUGGESTS THAT A BAND OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD SET UP RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD FAVOR SNOWFALL GETTING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ADDITION TO THIS...GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WITH THIS IN MIND...I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN NICELY ATOP A LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS FEATURING MEAN MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 G/KG WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED MB...AND OVERALL COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES. SO...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL IS EXISTS WITH WHERE THE BEST BAND OF FGEN WILL SET UP...IT IS COMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT A BAND OR TWO OF DECENT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES. FOR INSTANCE...THE GARCIA METHOD ALONE WOULD SUGGEST AMOUNTS POSSIBLY UP AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...I AM NOT SURE THIS MUCH SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THAT THE MESOSCALE BAND OF FGEN APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY EVEN SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES COULD STILL PUSH AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR MENDOTA AND POINTS SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88 BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BAND OF FGEN CENTERED NEAR 850 MB. THE SNOW COULD TRY TO MIX WITH SLEET ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT UNLESS SOME WARMER AIR SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF MY AREA OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BY SUNDAY EVENING...IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF FGEN AROUND 700 MB. THIS BAND OF FGEN...AND THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SNOW...THEN LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AREAS UP AROUND 4 INCHES CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH OF ABOVE. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18z GFS took a big jump north, just a hair south of the 18z NAM now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 1.9 final call too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 ILX went with a Winter Weather Advisory along and south of I-72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 3.3 ORD 4.6 MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 too soon are you new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The 15z SREF plume for DTW shows a mean snowfall total of 2.7", with a fairly tight clustering between 1.5" and 3.5". There's one loon that shows NO snowfall, and there's another loon that shows over 5" of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 3.3 ORD 4.6 MBY Swinging for the fences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 SREF with the triple cluster at dkb. One set around zero, one set around an inch and a half, and another clump between 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Swinging for the fences Wouldn't rule out the higher side of guidance if the band can stall out for awhile. Will be fun to watch the hi res models tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Since IND mentioned about having to watch for a possible upgrade to ice storm warning, I went back and took a look at significant ice events (0.25" or greater) in central IN, specifically Indianapolis. Looking at 50+ years of data, almost every single occurrence took place with surface winds out of the E/NE/N or something like that. The only possible exception that I could find was 1/15/1997, which had S/SE flow. I'm unsure of ice amounts in Indianapolis but Storm Data suggests a band of healthy ice (.25 to .5") from IL into IN. It was very cold in the days prior to that storm as it is for this one. If there's an unfavorable setup (in terms of surface wind direction) that would be able to pull it off, it's probably this one. We've had a pretty cold airmass leading in, background pressures remain fairly high and there's no real organized low pressure to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 For the LAF folks, take a look at what showed up as an analog on last night's NAM run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18Z GFS freezing rain: 18z NAM freezing rain: 18z RGEM freezing rain: if the RGEM is right a small chance at an ice storm warning, if the NAM/GFS are right just a freezing rain advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 DVN not too enthused about snow rates, pointing out lack of forcing in the DGZ.. HOWEVER... GLANCING BOUT OF FORCING ON NORTH SIDE OF SYSTEM LOOKS TOINTERACT WITH FRONT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BY MID TO LATEAFTERNOON FOCUSING MAINLY IN CORRIDOR BETWEEN IOWA CITY AND GALESBURGESPECIALLY NEAR SQI-MLI-MPZ AXIS IN RIBBON OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICALFORCING AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES JET. FORCINGLOOKS PRIMARILY JUST OUTSIDE OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND THUSMAINLY LIGHT ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH WHICH WILL BE CHEWED SOME BYTEMPS NEARING THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Mood dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 are you new here? Lol. I like where I'm sitting. Right now I'm just north of any mix according to most of the guidance. It's sometimes fun riding the edge. At best, 4" and a worst 1/2" of sl**t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Interesting developments today... Up to 50% chance of snow now for tomorrow night. 21z SREF has a mean of 1.61" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not liking IND talking about possible upgrade to Ice Storm Warning Will have to watch obs and radar closely tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z NAM brought the 0.25" line widespread across LOT. 2-4 solid call. Expecting WWAs up after 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Man I hope the 00z NAM is wrong. It looks like almost all sleet here with maybe a little zr and snow thrown in. Also pretty bullish on bringing the freezing line north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Man I hope the 00z NAM is wrong. It looks like almost all s***t here with maybe a little zr and snow thrown in. Also pretty bullish on bringing the freezing line north.Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z NAM brought the 0.25" line widespread across LOT. 2-4 solid call. Expecting WWAs up after 00z suite. The biggest change on the 00z NAM (though not unexpected) is a much sharper cut-off to the precipitation on the NW edge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Fyp Thanks lol. It'd be an almost unbelievable thread the needle. Hopefully the other 00z runs don't back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z NAM would be good here for 3-5" (assuming roughly 12:1 ratios) actually, with 0.30"+ of QPF... The Monday morning commute in Detroit would be a mess too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Man I hope the 00z NAM is wrong. Bolded is usually the way to go. Alas, better go find a helmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 FWIW, the 21z SREF plume mean for DTW is down slightly to about 2.5". There's still a tight cluster up to around 3.5", but the one member that showed 5"+ has fallen below 4.5" while a couple more members have fallen below 1.5" with that one loon still showing roughly 0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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