mimillman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 looks like another 1-2" hit on the way Agreed. Thinking 1-3 from north to south across the Cook County. Gradient will be sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Some 12z NMM images. Brings snow into the heart of the metro by 22z and parks it there till it moves out around 5/6z, slowly drifting SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 looks like another 1-2" hit on the way wouldn't rule out the threat of more with the chance of an overperforming/possibly stalled out band for a 4-6hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 wouldn't rule out the threat of more with the chance of an overperforming/possibly stalled out band for a 4-6hr period. Whoever stays in that band the longest could easily see 3 or 4 imo. Trying to pinpoint exact location is a bit tough at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Good call. I've been thinking some kind of combo of 1-2" snow, 0.10-0.20" other stuff. Should be thrilling. Should be a fun time trying to fly out of Indy on Monday morning... Heading for San Antonio for the week, so if I can make it out should get a few days of temps in the 50s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks like IND is going with a winter weather advisory generally south of I-70. Seems like it's mainly ice based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Whoever stays in that band the longest could easily see 3 or 4 imo. Trying to pinpoint exact location is a bit tough at this point. Agreed, which some of the models have been hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The freezing rain threat still looks pretty significant for Indianapolis. That could bring some major problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Agreed, which some of the models have been hinting at. Liking my location in this for some of the better totals in the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks like IND is going with a winter weather advisory generally south of I-70. Seems like it's mainly ice based. Interesting, thoughts as to why south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 looks like another 1-2" hit on the way You might be in a decent spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Interesting, thoughts as to why south? We'll know more when the afd comes out but probably because they are expecting mainly snow/sleet farther north and don't expect those amounts to reach advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 The freezing rain threat still looks pretty significant for Indianapolis. That could bring some major problems. NAM fairly bullish there. Other models not as much or are farther south with better icing. At least winds will be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18z NAM should be a solid run for up this way. Little more ridging out ahead of the srn wave and the front across the northern Midwest is a little slower through 18hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 15z SREF took a nice jump as well. Mean of 1.6" at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Definitely a bit of a north bump on this run. Icier look for LAF and especially just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The northern branch piece/plains sfc high backed considerably further west on the 18z NAM. This is allowing the open wave to pull moisture further N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 18z 4km NAM well north, would shutout southern cook and favor the Dixon to Geos corridor with the heaviest axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Extremely difficult forecast for DVN and LOT. Very sharp cutoff on the northern edge. For here specifially (and QC) I originally went with nada, but starting to look like we could get in on something now with these bumps north. So close it could still be a shutout, or 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Beginning to look a little more realistic.. All kidding aside these set ups do tend to over perform for those lucky enough to get in the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 looking good for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 hires_t_precip_chicago_13.png Noice. What are you thinking for LSRs this go around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's kind of strange to think that we are talking about a significant storm without a surface low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Noice. What are you thinking for LSRs this go around? Probably a little better than average. I think Hoosier mentioned 12-13:1 which sounds solid but might be a little better under the heart of the band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 1.9 final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 IND 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MILLIBARS WITH BELOW FREEZING NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THIS WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL SPREAD A BIT FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROPPING. THIS AREA SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PER SMILAR MODEL QPF AND NORMAL SNOW RATIOS...SHOULD SEE IN EXCESS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. THUS...WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY. PER COORDINATION WITH LMK...WILL START THE ADVISORY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND AFTER 21Z SUNDAY EAST OF 65. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL QPF... SOUNDING...OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO ICE STORM WARNING AT SOME POINT. AREAS NORTH OF CRAWFORDSVILLE AND TIPTON...INCLUDING LAFAYETTE AND KOKOMO LOOK TO REMAIN ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS AREA COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET PER 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO. MEANWHILE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF FURTHER SOUTH...ESOPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA..WHERE LITTLE SNOW AND LITTLE SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Starting to think this could be a bit more than 1-3" locally. It could, especially where the frontogenesis band sets up the longest. The question in the duration of best forcing/moisture though is why I'm not quite ready to bet on higher amounts just yet... EDIT: It definitely has the feel of an overachiever though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 IND Can't cut it any closer than that for North Central Indiana lol. I'm 25 miles south of IWX grids, I'm gonna ride them, IND depresses me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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