Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 PRetty sure the wave in question was fully sampled this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z NAM (it's a bit wetter)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 If there's been any other trend besides the slight bumps northward, it's been a warmer trend (12z NAM now have the freezing line to a IND-FDY-CLE line)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z 4km NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z RGEM (just through 12z Mon.)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z 4km NAM snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z RGEM is fairly juicy across parts of IL, IN, and OH. P-type maps have LAF riding the snow/s**** line for quite a bit of the event. No real surprise there. Knowing how WAA is usually underdone on the models, you know where this is going for here... Exhibit A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Mimilliman's revenge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z RGEM is fairly juicy across parts of IL, IN, and OH. 1:10 12z rgem qpf.png P-type maps have LAF riding the snow/s**** line for quite a bit of the event. No real surprise there. Knowing how WAA is usually underdone on the models, you know where this is going for here... Certainly a concern for icing it appears, at least over this way. Depending on timing, could be a mess with the football game and parties etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Mimilliman's revenge? Well he certainly deserves it. After all we've been basking in the triumph of southern-trending systems all season. As is evident with our eight-inch-to-date bonanza. I feel like such a snow glutton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z GFS twins not as "wet". pGFS has a decent little lolli to the west of LAF. It's a bit colder at 850 versus the NAM and RGEM as well. Mind you I still expect at least 50% of the precip here to be, well you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Going to make a preliminary call of 1-3" in Detroit. Will re-visit it after tomorrow's 12z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z RGEM is fairly juicy across parts of IL, IN, and OH. 1:10 12z rgem qpf.png P-type maps have LAF riding the snow/s**** line for quite a bit of the event. No real surprise there. Knowing how WAA is usually underdone on the models, you know where this is going for here... Exhibit A I_nw_r1_EST_2015011012_036.png I noticed the 00z Euro ticked warmer for us. Feeling a little more confident than yesterday that the max snow ends up north of us but we don't need much of a south/colder shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nice Alek Bullseye on the 12z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12Z NMM looks like it's keepin' a little strip and pockets of .25+ QPF in portions of LOT...wisco border counties remain dry on the run for the most part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z ARW 12z NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Most offices seem to be going conservative with this one so far. Ratios don't look too high at this point...maybe like 12:1 or 13:1 in areas farther entrenched in the cold air (perhaps locally higher?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Something to keep in mind as well is that these frontogenesis bands tend to overachieve on snowfall amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Most offices seem to be going conservative with this one so far. Ratios don't look too high at this point...maybe like 12:1 or 13:1 in areas farther entrenched in the cold air (perhaps locally higher?) DTX says moisture and instability looks good for decent snowfall rates. Really, the only problem they're seeing is how brief the period of best forcing looks to be (at least at this point)... THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREABY SUNDAY NIGHT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3-4 G/KG ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE MI ALONG THE 290K SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR GOOD SNOWFALL RATES...WITH A DEEP LAYER BETWEEN 0 AND -10C CAPPED BY A LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY AND LIFT WITHIN THE -10 TO -18C LAYER. THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER SUGGEST ANY PERIOD OF DECENT FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN THAT THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE /ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/ MAY BE THE MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE FORECAST SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WILL BE KEPT AROUND AN INCH AT THIS TIME. But like IWX says, all it's going to take is... 1. For the northern stream wave to slow down slightly and dig slightly further SW 2. For models to be underdoing the strength of the SW shortwave slightly (which does happens with these southern stream waves) ...for higher snowfall amounts to occur... QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH WHERE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP BUT CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAVORED GIVEN LATEST MODEL SUITE. WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA AT SAME TIME AND BEGIN TO PHASE BUT IT APPEARS JUST EAST OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH A QUICK BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE SNOW AHEAD OF THESE SHORT WAVES. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN AS THEY APPROACH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PULLING GOMEX MOISTURE NORTH. ARCTIC WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT AND MODIFY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THE MOMENT FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT A WARM NOSE OF 0 TO 1C BEING SHOWN BY GFS AND NAM12 IN TOP DOWN METHOD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA. IF WARM AIR ADVECTION ENDS UP BEING A BIT STRONGER OR SPREADING FURTHER NORTH MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. TOP DOWN PROCEDURE OFF OF 00Z MODELS CONFINED THIS MIX TO SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO FOR NOW PREFER TO LET THE RAIN SNOW LINE CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS AND REFINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH RANGE DEPENDING ON THIS WARM NOSE AND STRENGTH OF FGEN FORCING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I noticed the 00z Euro ticked warmer for us. Feeling a little more confident than yesterday that the max snow ends up north of us but we don't need much of a south/colder shift. Yep. Not much QPF with this one, but I'm hoping we can pull out 1.3" of snow to get to dd's for January. Though I guess that other p-type counts too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Pretty big move north on the 12z Euro...for people's interests in NE IL and southern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Pretty big move north on the 12z Euro...for people's interests in NE IL and southern lower MI. Not too surprising since it was on the far south side of the envelope as of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 ECM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's not on the CIPS analog list but this setup reminds me of 1/4/14. That was the day prior to the 'PV Blizzard' that nailed Indiana, when much of northern IL had solid fgen driven snows as the sfc Arctic front and 850 mb front only slowly progressed southward. Progged surface, 850 and 500 mb fields for Sunday night are quite similar to 1/4/14, including the path of the h5 vort max. If you click around the SPC Meso archive and compare to the model fields for Sunday night, the similarities are definitely apparent, though surface high is stronger and farther east in this case. Timing is key though, so things could still shift back south. If 12z guidance is similar or better, we're likely in line for some decent snow given banding potential in this setup. Found LOT's writeup about that. 3-6" with locally higher amounts http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=99400&source=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 At this point I'm leaning toward something like 2-3" of a snow/sleet combination for LAF. Can't entirely write off the possibility of a little freezing rain but the warm intrusion doesn't look strong enough at this point, so I'm thinking it will be all or almost entirely all snow/sleet. If the worst case scenario were to pan out with sleet, I could envision over a half inch of that with Tim and I getting visions of Groundhog Day 2011 dancing in our heads, but hopefully we can keep the sleet down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 My birthday is on Monday. Would love to have some flakes falling all day, even if it doesn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 At this point I'm leaning toward something like 2-3" of a snow/sleet combination for LAF. Can't entirely write off the possibility of a little freezing rain but the warm intrusion doesn't look strong enough at this point, so I'm thinking it will be all or almost entirely all snow/sleet. If the worst case scenario were to pan out with sleet, I could envision over a half inch of that with Tim and I getting visions of Groundhog Day 2011 dancing in our heads, but hopefully we can keep the sleet down. Good call. I've been thinking some kind of combo of 1-2" snow, 0.10-0.20" other stuff. Should be thrilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Good call. I've been thinking some kind of combo of 1-2" snow, 0.10-0.20" other stuff. Should be thrilling. Basically on the same page. If that amount of other stuff falls as sleet and applying a 3:1 ratio for the sleet comes out to a half inch or just above on the higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Starting to think this could be a bit more than 1-3" locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 looks like another 1-2" hit on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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