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January 11-12 Snow/Mixed Precip


Hoosier

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Radar currently doesn't look half bad. 18z GFS actually came in the most north of its last several runs and just about stalls the band between 0-6z across the metro.

LOT has me down for 1-3"

I'm on the fence with things...

Obviously there's gonna be 1-3" in the main axis, but where does banding set-up in that axis and do the bands waiver/stall in an area for a while. Or does the axis/bands slide north and then back south in a steady fashion.

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I'm on the fence with things...

Obviously there's gonna be 1-3" in the main axis, but where does banding set-up in that axis and do the bands waiver/stall in an area for a while. Or does the axis/bands slide north and then back south in a steady fashion.

 

Gotta hope/see if this area can fill in over the next few hours...if that can happen then we could be in solid shape. 

 

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We had a few minutes of solid SN imo, though the ASOS didn't report it so I guess not.  As others have said, there were some nice-sized dendrites as well.  Back to very light snow with small flakes again though.

 

Given model trends today, decided to drop to 2-3".  Not that it matters a whole lot...

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Alek what do you think of the LE possobility? NAM is bullish.

 

 

maybe an additional 1/4 to 1/2 if everything works out…lots of negatives

 

I'm more bullish.  I still think someone sees 1".  Best chance would be between Lake Station and the Loop.

 

We had an event in early December that was similar, with dry air/very low inversion heights and only a few hundredths of model QPF that still managed to produce several hours of snow.  I think it was a Tuesday night?  Problem was, the surface was about 34 F, so it didn't stick, but that obviously won't be a problem this time. 

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Doing the same here. One minute it's mainly zr, the next it's mostly ip. Haven't seen any flakes since shortly after onset.

 

Least you had some flakes. :(:D

 

But man, what a gut punch of a minor system. A couple of days ago I thought no way we'd see anything but sn/pl here...and now the bad mix is as far reaching as your hood. Ugly.

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Least you had some flakes. :(:D

 

But man, what a gut punch of a minor system. A couple of days ago I thought no way we'd see anything but sn/pl here...and now the bad mix is as far reaching as your hood. Ugly.

 

Right after I posted that, some heavier radar returns moved overhead and some large flakes are mixing in with the zr and ip. Guess it will just be a "wintry mix" here.

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